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I was messing around playing some NL50 tonight when an interesting situation came up.

I had been playing about 35/30 on this table, playing fairly aggressively in position.

Discussion about DC came up at the table, and everyone knew I was a DC coach.
Villain in the hand and I had been talking, and I'd given him some advice re: bankroll management and whatnot. Villain described himself as a tag regular, and that seemed pretty spot on.

So my question is, do we think he is likely to be making a move on me on this flop or is his C/R here generally a set or overpair?


Poker Stars $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

CO: $42.55
Hero (BTN): $62.70
SB: $50.60
BB: $32.35
UTG: $111.55
MP: $54.75

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BTN with 7 A
1 fold, MP raises to $2, 1 fold, Hero calls $2, 2 folds

Flop: ($4.75) 2 J 4 (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $3, MP raises to $9, Hero

I think he thinks:
OMG if I bet on this very dry board, manchild is very likely to raise bluff me.....I think I will CR bluff him insted....owning the coach.....yeah!...nice!

Definitely not standard at nl50 and im just folding every time in this spot when I play....but given the history.....very likely to be a move...dont see why he would turn a set faceup!....

I think he has you beat a lot yeah.
Btw, I would probably check this behind dry flop. It's very uncommon for a TAG to nog cbet this, which makes me suspicious.

I think he has you beat a lot yeah.
Btw, I would probably check this behind dry flop. It's very uncommon for a TAG to nog cbet this, which makes me suspicious.

since its very standard for him to cbet here with a huge % of his range, I think he probably would just lead out with a strong hand because it is such a standard spot, and getting out of line will only make me suspicious

It's such a weird spot, because without all the extraneous stuff going on I'd expect to be able to fire, get called by his marginal hand he wants to pot control and then fire the turn and watch him fold. Since he'd cbet his air/TP+ that basically defines his hand as those marginal hands, so I don't like checking behind minSim. They will always call the flop but they always always fold the turn/river then. In fact thinking about that when that happens I should be making the first barrels like pot sized..

I'm not sure how much the history changes it. Not as in I'm sceptical but I'm never sure how to weight this sort of extra stuff. Like his line makes sense for precisely nothing really. I guess because he reps nothing, you are in position, have a bdnfd and an over you could call and see what he does on the turn if you think he'll play straightforwardly on the turn? If he doesn't and will barrel the turn maybe you can rebluff the flop, or call and lead the turn. I basically don't think folding for this one bet is an option because he reps so narrow a range and the increased probability he's messing with you. Out of the other options I think it depends how straightforwardly he plays the turn. If he doesn't I'm not sure which of the options between rebluffing now, or calling and leading turn is.

I didn't read all the responses, but this is BS from villain close to 100% of the time imo

it kinda looks like a big ace that knows it's probably ahead and wants to end the hand right here or him checking a random hand without a plan that decided it could bluff you on this board when you bet

either that or aces, people love to get trixy with aces, but we have the blocker, lol

I guess you felted the hand though and got shown a better hand and now want to save face by posting the hand here

AMIRITE?

since its very standard for him to cbet here with a huge % of his range, I think he probably would just lead out with a strong hand because it is such a standard spot, and getting out of line will only make me suspicious

This + what joliq said; good enough to admit betting is better...

If he doesn't I'm not sure which of the options between rebluffing now, or calling and leading turn is.

In the hand, I'm in position, so i can call and then see what he does on the turn before I have to act.

I like the rest of your post . It is indeed an interesting spot with a bunch of outside factors that are weird to weigh.

I guess you felted the hand though and got shown a better hand and now want to save face by posting the hand here

AMIRITE?

Hahaha, I will share further details of the hand after a few more posts.

The 3x raise makes me feel very weird. It looks a little too much like he is begging for a call or trying to induce a shove. If he had made it 11+ I would be more inclined to shove here and think he was taking a BS line. Although your image is likely shot and I know that if I personally was the villain in this hand I could see myself doing this with 88 and calling a shove. But if he is BSing I feel as though his most likely holding would be an underpair. I think calling is a good move sometimes because we are getting a cheap price to call and he is going to feel as though he has to fire the turn as well which means that if we shove the turn we get an extra bet out of him the times he is b/fing. Most of the time I would just fold to this flop raise (if i have a laggy image) but some of the time I would call and shove the turn if it comes any spade, a 7, an A, a K or Q.

Checkraising this super dry flop does seem like villain is trying to maximise folders equity. He may also be maximising bragging to friends equity.

Cbetting this flop is so stndrd and villain may like his hand too much to bet/fold.
I think regarding his entire range, there is often sets which do fit in here, and a majority of hands which have u drawing slim.
Unless u think you can take him off later streets (ok bluff opps. to come and some backdoor equity) I would just fold and pick a riper spot vs. video-star.

"Checkraising this super dry flop does seem like villain is trying to maximise folders equity. He may also be maximising bragging to friends equity."

This statement makes it sound like he has air. If he is trying to maximize his fold equity, it should be with air, not with a hand of value (why would he want me to fold if he has a strong hand)



"Cbetting this flop is so stndrd and villain may like his hand too much to bet/fold. "

If he likes his hand to much to bet/fold, and therefore he doesn't want to bet, he should just check call. The reason people don't bet when they have value but don't want to have to bet/fold is to keep the pot small. If he c/raises that defeats the entire purpose, and he might as well just bet/call.


"I think regarding his entire range, there is often sets which do fit in here, and a majority of hands which have u drawing slim.
Unless u think you can take him off later streets (ok bluff opps. to come and some backdoor equity) I would just fold and pick a riper spot vs. video-star."


I disagree about his range.

Also, I'm not intending to try to get to showdown unimproved, if I call the flop raise its with the intention of betting/raising him out later.

It's hard to say what villain is doing here; depends on how good he is, and on what level he is. In general I would say that it makes no sense to c/r bluff this flop as the pfr, and I also don't think you should bet this flop unless you want to be firing 2/3 streets as a bluff.

It's hard to say what villain is doing here; depends on how good he is, and on what level he is. In general I would say that it makes no sense to c/r bluff this flop as the pfr, and I also don't think you should bet this flop unless you want to be firing 2/3 streets as a bluff.

how often do people c/r this flop at nl50 with overpairs and sets?

In the hand, I'm in position, so i can call and then see what he does on the turn before I have to act.

I like the rest of your post . It is indeed an interesting spot with a bunch of outside factors that are weird to weigh.

That's worrying, maybe I accidentally stumbled onto something good. Yeah I guess IP you can call, he's probably going to play relatively straightforward on the turn vs someone he sees as tough, OOP. The other two options as I said only come up if you think he's not going to do so. That depends on your individual read on how often he's going to keep bluffing on the turn.