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I think that the EV graph is a good thing. It shows you, that you are not playing bad, just running bad. And this can help you, before you make changes in your game which are -ev in the long run.

There are a lot of different EV graphs. If the EV line just keeps like a line and isn't moving up while your winnings are going down you wouldn't have made any money even if you would have run "normal". This shows you that you have to work on your game to make winnings.

Then we have the ev line which moves down, too, like your winnings line, but you wouldn't have lost as much as you have actually lost. But(!): You would have lost money! Certainly, you aren't running well, but your not playing well, too. So you really have to work on your game.

The third option: The ev line moves up and your winnings are moving up/are even/moving down. Your playing well, but you are just on a downswing. If you have 20 times AA and your opponent has 20 times KK and you loose all of them (won't happen, just want to make it easier to understand) then your EV line moves up, while your winnings are moving down.

The important thing is that your EV line, even if it is running above or under your winnings line, is moving up! Then you can feel good about your game (even it can improve, because everybody has some sort of leaks).

You always(!) have to work on your game, but the EV line shows you, if your current decisions are completly bad, or if you are just running bad.

@ op!

you should buy "The Poker Mindset" and after reading it, all you care about are decisions and NOT results

I think that the EV graph is a good thing. It shows you, that you are not playing bad, just running bad. And this can help you, before you make changes in your game which are -ev in the long run.

+1. It's frustrating to lose money, and when you do, it's natural to think you have to change something. The EV graph keeps you from making drastic changes if they aren't really necessary.

In the past the math was wrong. Maybe they have fixed it?

In the past there were only some small errors wrt multiway pots and such, and those have been fixed a long time ago.

lol...... only 800$ below ev, i am running like 15k below this year...

And my e-penis is bigger than yours.

http://www.twoplustwo.com

EV graphs are not even close to accurate. It's not because of math errors it's because it only counts what happens after the money goes in and they don't count ranges.

If you have AA against KK and you get it in preflop and you lose it'll say you're below EV. However if you have KK, spike a K on the flop and get it in against AA on the flop and hold up it won't say you ran above expectation even though you did.

The EV graphs are only part of your overall expected value and since they don't include ranges anyway they're still irrelevant because if you happen to run in to the absolute bottom of someone's range and get sucked out on it will say you ran below EV even if that person's range was crushing you.

I honestly can't imagine a useful way to consider EV graphs informative.

EV graphs are not even close to accurate. It's not because of math errors it's because it only counts what happens after the money goes in and they don't count ranges.

If you have AA against KK and you get it in preflop and you lose it'll say you're below EV. However if you have KK, spike a K on the flop and get it in against AA on the flop and hold up it won't say you ran above expectation even though you did.

The EV graphs are only part of your overall expected value and since they don't include ranges anyway they're still irrelevant because if you happen to run in to the absolute bottom of someone's range and get sucked out on it will say you ran below EV even if that person's range was crushing you.

I honestly can't imagine a useful way to consider EV graphs informative.

In this case it will say that you ran above expectation. You have about 92% equity in the pot and if you hold up it will show you to run 8% of the potsize above EV.

EV graphs are 100% accurate for most of the sites now, though they are only part of your expected value as many of you has pointed out allready.

In this case it will say that you ran above expectation. You have about 92% equity in the pot and if you hold up it will show you to run 8% of the potsize above EV.

EV graphs are 100% accurate for most of the sites now, though they are only part of your expected value as many of you has pointed out allready.

Ok, I did wonder about that but 8% above expectation isn't accurate because you really ran 80% above or whatever KK vs AA really is. The fact that you spiked the K before the money went in in a scenario where 90% of the time the money's always going in doesn't really matter.

Like you said though, it's only a part of EV and there's still not a single reasonable conclusion you can draw from that part.

Ok, I did wonder about that but 8% above expectation isn't accurate because you really ran 80% above or whatever KK vs AA really is. The fact that you spiked the K before the money went in in a scenario where 90% of the time the money's always going in doesn't really matter.

Like you said though, it's only a part of EV and there's still not a single reasonable conclusion you can draw from that part.

Lets say you 3bet someone with AA and he setmines with 77 and he spikes his set on the flop.
The money is going in no matter what.
Once you get the money in you are crushed.(1 to 8.9 - 1 to 3.4 "in a monotone board!".
If you suck out in the turn or river, you are running Above EV there.
Lets say now you hold TT and you call a 3bet from a 8% 3bettor from the blinds in a reasonable sample and you flop the set and get the money in. Lets say, he suck-out on you. You now are running below EV.

-The majority of the pots you lose in an AI situation are normaly huge pots.(Running below EV= you as a favorite)
-The majority of the pots you win without going AI, are the ones you use as straight lines in your postflop action.(bet-bet-bet or bet-bet-c or ....)


The question is can your postflop play withstand the majority of the times you lose a HUGE pot because someone sucked-out on you.
And BTW running below-EV is part of the problem of a suck-out, if he spikes his card(but not a strong hand!) on the river and calls your bet or bets himself and you lose. You are running below EV but not shown on the graph.

Can the small pots compensate?

ok, to keep it simple:
we are playing 100bb deep. player A has AA, player B has 77 and calls the 3b preflop to setmine. he hits a set 12% of the time.

Action:
B opens to 3bb
A raises to 12bb
bb folds
B calls

The pot is now 25bb. player A will now take down the pot 88% of the time. The other 12% when B hits his set, player A has 8% chance to win the pot.

x = 0,88 * 25bb - 0,12 * ( 0,92 * 88bb - 0,08 * 88bb )
x = 22bb - 0,12 * ( 80,96bb - 7,04bb )
x = 22bb - 0,12 * 73,92bb
x = 22bb - 8,87bb
x = 13,13bb

If we have this scenario 1.000 times player A should be up 13.130bb. If he now is just up 12.000bb he is running below ev. And this is, where HEM works correct! It shows you that you might have run more often into a set then you should have or that you didn't hit your Ax on turn/river as often as you should have. Your right if you say that HEM can't know the holecards of player B if he calls the 3b pre and folds on the flop, but we just assume that he is just a setminer preflop, so if you use the filter correct, you can see, what you should be up in this scenario and how much you are really up.

LordMaker, I think that everyone is avoiding the elephant in the room. What I am inferring from your graph and plot is that you think that Full Tilt isn't random. I am very interested in this idea, as I have evidence to support this as well. Can you email me at royalassassin603@yahoo.com so that we can talk about some of your data. thanks

In the past the math was wrong. Maybe they have fixed it?

I've got an older version and the math is definitely wrong in certain multiway spots post flop.

LordMaker, I think that everyone is avoiding the elephant in the room. What I am inferring from your graph and plot is that you think that Full Tilt isn't random. I am very interested in this idea, as I have evidence to support this as well. Can you email me at royalassassin603@yahoo.com so that we can talk about some of your data. thanks

Do you also believe in things like cosmic justice?

It's funny - I've never seen someone post an EV graph and say "Wow, I'm running 30+ BI's above EV. This is so sick awesome it's not even funny - I love being lucky."

Oh, and I'll address the "elephant in the room." FTP isn't rigged. Take that discussion to 2p2 please.

No, but I do believe that these unregulated websites have financial motive to keep players. I am not saying that the websites are for sure not random, I am just saying that it is possible that they are not random. Variance can be calculated, it is not a black box. Before you stomp your feet and stand up for Full Tilt (the owners of which you don't know from Adam), let me do some investigation.