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It's not about comfort, it's about getting more accurate feedback

Also, maybe you run bad with allinEV, but maybe you get more than your fair share of draws/2pair etc postflop, which isn't accounted for.
It only represents a very small portion of your game luckwise.
Not to mention a number of situations which are accounted for in a weird way.
I have only paid little attention to this, so I don't know the ins and outs, but it seems pretty useless.

Also, maybe you run bad with allinEV, but maybe you get more than your fair share of draws/2pair etc postflop, which isn't accounted for.
It only represents a very small portion of your game luckwise.
Not to mention a number of situations which are accounted for in a weird way.
I have only paid little attention to this, so I don't know the ins and outs, but it seems pretty useless.

I think you are wrong.
It does account for the times you go AI at the flop and turn as favorite.
Tuba and improva are probably right that you dont have to weight all your game using the EV graph.

But i just dont know how else can you know if you are making the right decisions at the long run? (looking at your losing hands after each session is good but what if you run above EV spewing?)

if everyone thinks that 60 plus buy-ins below EV is normal then so be it but that constitutes alot of your winnings in the micros. Ppl just dont fold.

Thanks everyone for your responses

I think you are wrong.
It does account for the times you go AI at the flop and turn as favorite.

Not all pots are AI, far from it.

I think you are wrong.
It does account for the times you go AI at the flop and turn as favorite.
Tuba and improva are probably right that you dont have to weight all your game using the EV graph.

But i just dont know how else can you know if you are making the right decisions at the long run? (looking at your losing hands after each session is good but what if you run above EV spewing?)

if everyone thinks that 60 plus buy-ins below EV is normal then so be it but that constitutes alot of your winnings in the micros. Ppl just dont fold.

Thanks everyone for your responses

he's saying you might be flopping more 2p hands than you should on average or something like that.

and as far as knowing if you are making good decisions or not; that is my entire point, the EV line doesn't say whether or not you played the hand correctly. the only way to know that is to review the hand.

for example lets say we raise a button, get 3-bet, and 4-bet with 99 intending to call a shove. he ships and shows AK and we lose the flip. you might say, well, i just got pwned in AIEV, but if your opponent is only getting it in with something like JJ/AK and you mistakenly think he's lighter, you're making a huge mistake vs his range that isn't accounted for in the EV line. in other words, the EV line only measures sklansky bucks, not g-bucks. in other words it only tells you if your EV vs his actual hand, and not his range. and since we know how much variance is involved with just the actual hands we are dealt, think about how much variance you're going to experience with running into different parts of your opponents ranges. this all isn't considered in EV lines.

furthermore, if you think your opponents range is wide in that scenario, it may be more profitable to call since we have position. all of these things are totally ignored by players that focus too much on EV line and not evaluating the actual merits of all their plays.

you really should review any pot you play with bets on multiple streets, as well as periodically review your c-bets, 3-bets, isoraises, etc. to make sure you aren't spewing.

Nobody is saying the EV graph is a perfect measure of how well you played. However, it is undeniably a more accurate (and therefore more useful) measure than your actual winnings.

Nobody is saying the EV graph is a perfect measure of how well you played. However, it is undeniably a more accurate (and therefore more useful) measure than your actual winnings.

+1

But i just dont know how else can you know if you are making the right decisions at the long run? (looking at your losing hands after each session is good but what if you run above EV spewing?)

Modify your reports screen so it only includes $ (EV adjusted), won without showdown and other stats you want, but keep the actual $ won and actual bb/100 off the report.

Would this work for you?

Nobody is saying the EV graph is a perfect measure of how well you played. However, it is undeniably a more accurate (and therefore more useful) measure than your actual winnings.

The EV calculations in HEM seem to be wrong. Only EV of AI preflop is correct.

The problem isn't the EV line, or the gap between the green line and the EV line. The problem is how it affects you when you look at it. For me being down massively in EV brings this inevitable (and vicous) feeling of entitlement with it. Now feeling entitled in and off itself isn't good or bad, but (and again that's speaking of myself) feeling entitled makes me play worse (sometimes WAY worse) than my A-game (which I think is actually pretty good). That obvioulsy worsens things and all of a sudden you find yourself in this (for many players well known) vicous circle of runbad/playbad.

The EV calculations in HEM seem to be wrong. Only EV of AI preflop is correct.

I checked a few sample hands a while back and from a strictly math perspective they seemed correct. From a poker perspective they're obviously not, as they will display -EV even if most of the money went in ahead and the rest after we got sucked out on. Conversely they'll display +EV when you're the one who sucked out before the money went in.

Also AIEV definitely says nothing about how correct or incorrect your decisions were in any given hand. Tubasteve explained that pretty well in his post.

lol...... only 800$ below ev, i am running like 15k below this year...

Now that's a helpful statement.

We're playing for big blinds and $800 is a LOT of them at 25NL.

I checked a few sample hands a while back and from a strictly math perspective they seemed correct. From a poker perspective they're obviously not, as they will display -EV even if most of the money went in ahead and the rest after we got sucked out on. Conversely they'll display

In the past the math was wrong. Maybe they have fixed it?

I don't really understand the point of any graph. If you analyze your sessions and do your homework, that's all you'll ever need. Fixing leaks and improving are all that matters. The only other piece of relevant information is your cashier which helps you decide what stakes you should be playing. Your graph could be great, or it could suck. You could be running above or below EV. None of it matters. All that matters is your play.

Your sample size is still small, so you have that going for you. Studying and putting in hands (in that order) is good medicine for now.

I think ppl's attitudes towards EV is affected enormously by how much it has affected them overall (I expect most players run really bad on occasion, but usually will have periods of running well too). This isn't meant as a negative comment - you don't choose to run well, just as you don't choose to run badly.

With these discussions, there are a few comments that always get made, such as "it's an excuse to feel sorry for yourself rather than spending time improving", or "it causes players to put their bad results off as due to variance", and "you can run bad in other ways".

While any of them might be true in a specific circumstance, none of these comments have anything to do with running below expectation in general, and you could make the same comments about a lot of players. You can certainly feel very sorry for yourself, and still spend plenty of time on trying to improve!

I'd also say that someone who is running below expectation is (arguably) spending more time looking at their sessions to try and find out what might be wrong, than someone who is running at (or above) expectation who may have misconceptions of how good they actually are playing.

The real danger with EV, though, is how it affects you mentally, and if you start to question your play in incorrect ways. As Improva said, you should be looking to make +EV plays, and if you are changing what you are doing based on previous results, that's a problem. It's a tough one too, I find myself questioning a lot of what I thought were fairly standard spots, because I was losing very frequently.

otoh, seeing where you results "could" be can sometimes be a positive. That's a personal decision though, if it makes you feel emotional, you should probably try and avoid it. I know I get more comfort out of the direction my EV line is headed, than the way my actual results are - but seeing them diverge at an alarmingly consistent rate can be really frustrating.


Final point: there is always someone running much worse than you are, so if you can find them and see them stick with poker, that might help your motivation! And if you really can't handle it, then poker probably isn't for you, it isn't for everyone. Maybe we should set up our own secret HQ group, the Runbads?!


PS Stefan was also my coach, and yeah he is very supportive when you are not running well, but also reminding you not to lose focus.

The other school of thought, obv, is "don't worry too much about what you can't control".

Easier said than done, but it makes for a much shorter reply than ^^^^ that one