dangerfish
I agree here. While there may be a subtle difference in EV from a call, fold, or jam I very much disagree that we have a raise or fold spot. Yes, we will have to play some poker and make good decisions on the turn but there will also be a massive equity shift on any card that is below an 8 and not a diamond. Calling here is completely fine and may very well be the best play. I guess the basic idea is that when faced with a reasonable opponent (of course we don't really know that but for now lets assume) then we should try and avoid getting it in where the only two likely outcomes are that we are big dog against a made hand or against a huge equity draw that has close to 50% equity and sometimes more than that against our holding.
This hand brought up a lengthy debate yesterday between Surfoc and I. Personally, I like shipping it on the flop but I agree it is not necessarily a shove or fold spot. Here are the reasons I like shipping: 1. I do not want to make the biggest mistake of all and fold the best hand to a bad turn card. If the turn comes off a 9,J k or diamond are we folding to a shove? If he is on a diamond draw then we save money when the flush gets there but do we lose value if KQ wold have called our push on the flop or if KJ misses but would have called an all-in shove? Secondly, the pot has a nice overlay so if we are up against a draw--which is likely--we are a 55% favorite and getting a fabulous price on our push. Finally, if villian does have a set we are shipping on a non-diamond turn 4-5 times anyway and while I like donking here with a set, I suspect the majority of the time villian tries to check raise the field when flopping huge, so I discount sets slightly.
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