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Poker Video: No Limit Hold'Em by WiltOnTilt (Micro/Small Stakes)

Woo!

Timestamp: 38:57

Maybe one of you guys could tackle that math problem

Aaron,

you helped me a lot in understanding poker math. First through your amazing series and then via PM when I didn't quite understand a few concepts, so I'll answer your call in this video by "tackling that math problem"

If his range is sets and flushes (would a tighter guy flat 33 to a 3bet or would he minraise the BTN in the first place?) we're obviously in very bad shape:

Board: Ks 3s Ts
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.465% 34.46% 00.00% 3412 0.00 { AcAs }
Hand 1: 65.535% 65.54% 00.00% 6488 0.00 { KK, TT, 33, QsJs }

I've only included QJss into a tight 50NL regular's range as I really don't see him flatting more hands to a 3bet, however if he's a DC member and has watched Foxwoodsfiends "Movin' On Up" series in which he advocates minraising the BTN to be able to flat more 3bets, he might actually have more SC type hands in his range. But since this range already has us in pretty bad shape, let's go with this one first:

Current pot: $8.50

Our bet: $7

Villains raise: $25.50

Total pot: 25.5 + 7 + 8.5 = 41 (for convenience sake let's forget about rake here)

A shove costs us $40.50

EV calc vs above range:

1.55 = 0.34465 * 81.5 - 0.65535 * 40.5

So against this range we have a breakeven shove (slightly losing even due to rake)

Let's give him a more reasonable range which excludes 33 but includes QQ and JJ each with one , the remaining AA combo and 2 more made flushes:

Board: Ks 3s Ts
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 57.670% 55.68% 01.99% 8820 315.00 { AcAs }
Hand 1: 42.330% 40.34% 01.99% 6390 315.00 { KK+, QcQs, QdQs, QhQs, JcJs, JdJs, JhJs, TT, QsJs, 9s8s, 8s7s }

29.4 = 0.5568 * 81.5 - 0.4034 * 40.5

So against this range we're clearly winning.

Point in this hand is that even if we don't have the best hand we always have the best draw so we're never entirely dead. I probably would get this in vs anyone on the flop (100BB deep that is)

Lastly let's examine our EV vs villains exact holding:

Board: Ks 3s Ts
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.818% 51.82% 00.00% 513 0.00 { AcAs }
Hand 1: 48.182% 48.18% 00.00% 477 0.00 { KdTh }

22.72 = 0.51818 * 81.5 - 0.48182 * 40.5

So hero's shove gained him $22.72 on average vs villains exact hand.

Sugar Nut

Like the format much more than live play as you have the ability to pick out really tough spots. In live play there much more standard spots..
Regarding the AKs hand at around ~20:
Alex gets asked why villain most likely hasn't a strong hand like a twopair+ which was that he most likely would protect his hand.
But isn't that part of the micro's nature that opponents are in fact not protecting their hand (for several reasons) and thus we have to count also with these hands? Further you say that your opponent puts you on a strong hand when you're cbetting into a wet board... So basicially you assume that villain puts you on a strong hand because he knows that you know that the board hits a ton of his range and that he's loose enough to call in this spot? Isn't that too deep for the micros?
I mean im playing poker for several months now and even I wasn't thinking that far...? This could lead to some serious misreads imo...

Further you say that your opponent puts you on a strong hand when you're cbetting into a wet board... So basicially you assume that villain puts you on a strong hand because he knows that you know that the board hits a ton of his range and that he's loose enough to call in this spot? Isn't that too deep for the micros?

not imo

Timestamp 41:00

If you wanna play this hand, at least 3bet it

3betting sucks as much as calling does imo. We've got a 23BB and an 18BB stack yet to act. Against both of these stacks a 3bet commits ourselves to calling a shove. This is 100% fold pre!

What did villain have in this hand? You say 2 overs and a double gutty, which would be KJ, but then you say spades aswell, so did he actually have KJ?

The TT hand (about 60:00)

What's our plan for the river if it gets checked through

On a ?

On a non, not pairing the board?

Remember, we most likely will be 3way to the river if we check this turn and we're still sandwiched.

What's our plan if CO bets, and...

... BB calls?

... BB raises?

... BB folds?

I think bet/calling isn't as bad as it seems. It's a bit similar to the AA hand before. We're never dead and there are hands in his range (not many, though) that we still crush. No stats (much less reads) were provided in this hand, which is sad, but just from watching BB's line I'd guess he's pretty bad and could show up with 2pair here some of the time (QT/Q9 kinda hands, even T9/T7 which is now aswell scared by the board texture).

Done watching now. Great video as always, Alex and Aaron. Only 4 stars from me, though because on a few hands no reads were provided (watch Joe's "Late Night Coaching" series. It's always the first question he asks, before beginning analysis of a hand) and a few hands were quite standard imo.

Sugar Nut

not imo

these were the kinds of answers i was expecting..

I actually liked this format, you got pretty deep analysis and I personally got a lot from this vid.
I hope alex moves up soon so we can see some baller progress

Please, don't show the outcomes (turn, river) after shipping it in on the flop (or why not even preflop). It doesn't have any real value except for "OMGZ he runs, liek, so bad!". Kinda makes it seem like bad beat whine and also can skew somebody's opinion.

Other than that, great episode, thanks! Looking forward to the rest of the season. I think both formats (live sweat session and post-hand analysis) definitely have their place, and are good to have. If it's only post-hand analysis it can become a bit dull and not that connected to the real game, since you don't know the circumstances or game flow as intuitively, but then again in live sweat sessions you obviously can't talk about a hand for 10 minutes. In my opinion live play videos are more just about how you should play, and these handreplayer ones about really convincing you why you should play that way.

once again another great vid. I personally like this format more just to get the full meat of analysis, and although you do lose some of the game dynamic, i think at this level thinking more objectively in-depth about hands and interesting spots is more beneficial. gl alex on your rise up the ladder!

I like this format, and I also like watching live play. They are complements. "Variance" is probably higher when recording live play, as some sessions without much action are not that great to watch. Maybe the best thing for live play is to record four sessions and post two of them at DC (don't know if you do this already). Also there is a third format that you could consider: a live session in which you stop once or twice to squeeze in some deep analysis.

The AQ hand is usually how I play this hand.

Going through it though can we not make a fold on the river?

His bet on teh river is basically {nuts or nothing}, and Im really unsure whether this is AJ/bluff 35% of the time of more......(could understand if this guy was a LAG or maniac but this is a TAG - I just dont see it often enough)

Thoughts Aaron?

Please, don't show the outcomes (turn, river) after shipping it in on the flop (or why not even preflop). It doesn't have any real value except for "OMGZ he runs, liek, so bad!". Kinda makes it seem like bad beat whine and also can skew somebody's opinion.

ok, i suppose i can just take out the turn and river and just try to show what villain actually had in future episodes... although come to think of it, i'm not sure if that chopped up hand history will jive with the HH replayer. I'll try it out... i guess it didn't occur to me that people would care about that, but you're right it really doesn't add much to the discussion to show him getting sucked out on.

Other than that, great episode, thanks! Looking forward to the rest of the season. I think both formats (live sweat session and post-hand analysis) definitely have their place, and are good to have. If it's only post-hand analysis it can become a bit dull and not that connected to the real game, since you don't know the circumstances or game flow as intuitively, but then again in live sweat sessions you obviously can't talk about a hand for 10 minutes. In my opinion live play videos are more just about how you should play, and these handreplayer ones about really convincing you why you should play that way.

thanks for the nice comments and opinions on live vs hh replayer vids. we'll try to incorporate more of both for the rest of the season.

The AQ hand is usually how I play this hand.

Going through it though can we not make a fold on the river?

His bet on teh river is basically {nuts or nothing}, and Im really unsure whether this is AJ/bluff 35% of the time of more......(could understand if this guy was a LAG or maniac but this is a TAG - I just dont see it often enough)

Thoughts Aaron?

yea it's 32%, but i dont think we can fold w/o a better read. not saying we're thrilled about calling, but we could be chopping the pot, he could have AJ, and maybe he's making a thin value bet w/ AK (although agree unlikely because of bet size, which is more skewed to big hands and bluffs)

This series, along with "From the Ground Up", make the best combination of series I can imagine for new players. Great Job.

In the first hand, How would you play this if you were the player on the btn, holding A9dd or maybe 9Tdd against the same raises? This is the kind of spot in which I seem to get my head handed to me really often.

Thanks for the great series,

Steve