mdm13
mdm,
great video, and great commentary.
Two spots I found interesting:
1. When you flatted KJo pre OTB, and flatted a KQ4r flop, you mentioned you'd be raising AK for value but just calling KJ b/c you're in a WA/WB situation, yet you're in a spot where hand-values are nearly identical. Also, a thinking player may realize you're 3betting KQ/AK/QQ+ there pre-flop with an extremely high frequency, so you raising essential represents 44/air. With your image, I feel a raise may induce further action from AJ/A10/J10/Qx type hands that think you're f.o.s.(I play flop/turn/river the same btw.)
2. With 33 on AAJdd I really don't think raising the flop is your best option. I agree his range doesn't include many Ax hands, but you're essentially committing to betting two/three streets with an hand that isn't going to improve.
Do you have any thoughts on flatting the flop with 33? I feel players leading with air at this level are primarily taking one stab and giving up, and 33 is currently beating air (although their air has decent equity on this board).
Thanks,
Mark
1. Glad you brought this up, when I was rewatching part of it recently I realized that I think I would just flat AK as well on the flop and if I'm raising AK, KJ is probably too close to be much different. If I was OOP I'd c/r both for sure and my reasoning is this:
While I do think that there is some merit to raising to induce but I really think that OOP most villains at 100nl will time down and fold instead of do something like 3bet an overcard and gutshot and I pretty much never see OOP floats at 100nl. If I am OOP it becomes much much easier for him to float gutshot/midpair hands and I still represent a narrow range. The board is also pretty dry, which means he won't have many hands to semibluff me with, but since he is betting his entire range on the flop I can let him maybe pick up some equity on the turn and bet again. Also if I flat the flop IP I have floats in my range as well as some weakish pairs whereas OOP I am not check calling T9. This means that I think that villain is a bit more likely to barrel turn again with a semibluff or c/c a Q or weak K than when I c/c OOP because my hand will be face up as a Q,K or straight draw.
2. Yeah, I am certainly committing myself to betting multiple streets which is fine by me but 33 has crappy equity against air and if hes donking like QT or something he has a lot of outs/counterfeit equity and once I flat the flop the only strong hands I pretty much ever have are AJ/JJ/AA which may induce multiple barrels from draws and c/c's from jacks. Probably should have had a better read to try to pull off my move but as I mentioned earlier in this thread, something to consider he called me with a hand that is a bluff catcher so as far as image goes its pretty good because I have the goods more often than not in that spot and his hand = TT.
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