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No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 1863368
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CO: $2.08
Hero (BTN): $13.47
SB: $26.42
BB: $9.61
UTG: $10.37

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BTN with A J
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.35, SB calls $0.30, 1 fold

Flop: ($0.80) 8 A K (2 players)
SB bets $0.60, Hero calls $0.60

Turn: ($2.00) 5 (2 players)
SB bets $2.00, Hero calls $2

River: ($6.00) 6 (2 players)
SB bets $6.00, Hero calls $6

this player had aggression freq of 53% or more on all streets which seems high to me so I kind of chose this stat over the pot bet sizing- is it more profitable to raise this flop 3x or more when he donks to get value from draws?
I'm not sure if there is anyway to avoid this terrible disaster on the river.... maybe most times though I am winning vs this type of aggro player?

from his perspective my range for raising the button might be pretty wide, I raise really wide on the button over 90% so this is higher than the middle of my button raising range...
perhaps it's bad to raise so wide on the button because then I may overvalue these AJ hands since I might expect him to be overly aggressive vs my range given my extremely wide button range

is poker going to dry up in a year and it's going to be impossible to make a living at it?

is poker going to dry up in a year and it's going to be impossible to make a living at it?

Only a very very small % of players can make enough for a living. You should just look at it as a hobby and try to improve as much as possible. Don't even think about playing poker for a living. The fact that you are playing 10nl and are on strategy sites says enough about poker these days imo. Still people have a lot of leaks but the standard is just much much higher. To make good money you have to be different then 95% of the player pool and be able to exploit players leaks to the max. This is very hard tho.

You played this hand badly. On the river there is not a single possible hand that you beat except pure bluff and just because he is aggresive over small sample, you can't expect him to spew every time. You could argue about calling turn, but river is a clear fold.

thanks very much! he had A6spades, his river agg% 78% over 9 hands, won $ SD was 50% over 4 hands, call open 21% in SB...

it seems there is a degree of uncertainty in his range and whether he has scs or more Ax offsuit hands. but you're right even if I add the A2o+ I get this and I need 33.33% equity to call the pot on the river and that is only break even?

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

145 games 0.000 secs 29,000 games/sec

Board: Ad 8d Kh 5s 6d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.103% 31.03% 02.07% 45 3.00 { TT-22, AQs-A2s, KdQd, KdJd, KdTd, Kd9d, Kd8d, Kd7d, Kd6d, QdJd, QdTd, JdTd, Jd9d, Td9d, Th9h, Td8d, 9d8d, 8d7d, 7d6d, AQo-A2o, QJo }
Hand 1: 66.897% 64.83% 02.07% 94 3.00 { AhJc }

but maybe his range is more weighted towards suited high cards and sc's like this but it seems unclear
TT-22,AQs-A2s,K6s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T8s+,97s+,86s+,75s+,65s,54s,AQo-A8o

on the river it seems the combos I beat are really small, if A9o+: A9, AT, minus diamonds, so 14 combos? tie to AJ- so I would need maybe 2 pair or better to call on the river?

there must be a 3 barrel stat for HM1 or HM2? there's a cbet turn stat which might be 2 barrel?
I was mostly thinking of his high above 53% aggression frequency on all 3 streets

yeah maybe with a middle 2 pair then I should call the river?

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
50 games 0.000 secs 10,000 games/sec
Board: Ad 8d Kh 5s 6d
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 53.000% 50.00% 03.00% 25 1.50 { Ac8h }
Hand 1: 47.000% 44.00% 03.00% 22 1.50 { 88, 66-55, KdQd, KdJd, KdTd, Kd9d, Kd8d, Kd7d, Kd6d, QdJd, QdTd, JdTd, Jd9d, Td9d, Th9h, Td8d, 9d8d, 8d7d, 7d6d, A8o+ }

If you have 53% versus his betting range on the river it's a great call! Do the EV calculation and you will see yourself!

Folding the turn would be a big mistake.

I think I still call river as spazzy as this guy seems. In my experience this line is very likely to be a bluff. QJo, JTo, QTo are the more obvious choices. I also don't think he does this with a set all that often.

I think this is probably okay...I think that a river is closer to a fold than a call, though.

I haven't played much cash or 6max yet and I am justing trying to get my sea-legs at the micros so don't expect too much incite.

I raise really wide on the button over 90% so this is higher than the middle of my button raising range...

This seems way too high to me, I know that players at this level won't notice too much but the 90% figure would mean you are raising lots of weak hands into several types of players. If it is the Btn steal % it seems a bit high and if this is your Btn PFR it seems really high. I thought I was being quite aggro with a 50% Btn steal. I am still learning though maybe I'll look at pushing the btn steal a bit further.

On the hand I would expect an aggro player to raise most high value hands AT+, and mid pairs rather than call and maybe trap with a few monsters.
Donking out 2/3rds pot into the aggressor (it is really useful to spot and note what pot sizing bets mean for this player) reduces the start range really well. Trapping hands all go (KK+), it doesn't look like an inducing size so made strong hands are less likely, good draws look quite possible or weaker made hands. (or just someone that donk steals often)
The pot sized turn still looks like V. wants a fold, so more draw like hands and less high made strength (2 pair etc), and less weak or air.
The pot on the river doesn't narrow it too much, the flush draws got there, but I don't think all that many of the missed straight draws would bluff this big throughout the hand. I still think you have too much equity to correctly fold but it's very close. Most weak Ax hands and Kx would prob have bet smaller and often just bluff catch.
My best guess would put you on about 30 to 45% equity.
say something like (66-55,A6s-A5s,KQs,KdJd,KdTd,Kd9d,K6s-K5s,QdJd,QdTd,Qd9d,Qd7d,JdTd,J9s,Td9d,9d7d,A7o,A5o,KQo)

I think in game I would err on the side of caution and fold to the 3rd barrel when the flush hits - this depends a lot on player type and history though and the presence of the A on the flop does act as a blocker to many flushes.

I think this is probably okay...I think that a river is closer to a fold than a call, though.

yah i dont see how even a spazz decides to start bluffing on this river so much has hit at this point, but villain could just be super bad.

I don't see how he has that many good hands other than flushes. Only have to be good 1/3, so he doesn't need that much spaz since there's not that many flushes and the flop and turn look so fantastically spazerfic.

Preflop profile sure would be helpful though.

That being said, it's hard to be super accurate about ranges here because this comes up so rarely. Small sample size and variance.