Micro Stakes Online NL Poker Forums

well it's pretty straightforward. we are in this river spot and have to consider what % of hands worse than KK will call a bet:

if his range to reach river is so strong that we need to c/f, we should be bluffing turn more

if his range to reach river is so wide but will not call again w/worse than KK enough to bet, we should triple more

if it is some mix of bluffcatchers and nuts that will play honestly, b/f if he calls with worse 50+%

if it's not wide and will not call a bet, but will bluff rather than call, b/c >>> b/f


you seem to be frustrated with all options here. i promise you that one is best and probably several are +ev. if not, you should be looking to get here with more bluffs.

Do you really think people call 3 barrels with JJ/TT or QJ? I think thats too optimistic. He is probably calling with AQ/KQ. I think we should also not discount QQ from villains range.

Most people have a pretty polarized 3 barreling range (you probably aren't playing QT this way). So if villain thinks he should call a $14 river bet with JJ, he's probably calling an $18 bet with pretty much the same frequency.

well it's pretty straightforward. we are in this river spot and have to consider what % of hands worse than KK will call a bet:

if his range to reach river is so strong that we need to c/f, we should be bluffing turn more

if his range to reach river is so wide but will not call again w/worse than KK enough to bet, we should triple more

if it is some mix of bluffcatchers and nuts that will play honestly, b/f if he calls with worse 50+%

if it's not wide and will not call a bet, but will bluff rather than call, b/c >>> b/f


you seem to be frustrated with all options here. i promise you that one is best and probably several are +ev. if not, you should be looking to get here with more bluffs.

Thanks for the explanation. How do you use this theory at the table when you don't know how light villain is calling 2 streets or how often he is turing hands into a bluff when we check? Because to me this sounds like theory that we can't apply versus players that don't adjust very well and don't even look at how often we triple barrel while playing 8 tables. They look at their hand and think about our range a little bit and see that it's hard for us to have a lot of bluffs in our range on this runout. (Maybe he is not even thinking that far) I think this theory can be applied at higher stakes where people are much more observant but at those stakes it's 75% of the time just ABC. So to summarize the question, can we apply this theory with more bluffs in our river range versus pretty unknown players that probably aren't thinking at that level and just play their hand?

Most people have a pretty polarized 3 barreling range (you probably aren't playing QT this way). So if villain thinks he should call a $14 river bet with JJ, he's probably calling an $18 bet with pretty much the same frequency.

I agree with you. The problem is, that I don't believe villain has enough of those JJ/TT in his turn calling range. Especially when my range is pretty narrow since I can't have that many semi-bluffs in my range OTT (KJs,KTs,JTs) so my hand is pretty face up. However I would bet those missed draws OTR and probably bigger and that doesn't match with my sizing for value which is a mistake IMO.

it's easier if you can assume ABC. you simply play as if you're playing versus the player pool, which you expect to play ABC. if this guy is better or worse or otherwise different (which you won't always learn from this hand, since many hands will play the same or simply fold), you just adjust. it's not a mistake if you use the info you have....

i think you're giving the player pool a bit too much credit, though. people are pretty optimistic on all runouts when they have decent pairs, particularly when they think they've played passively or you can't have much either. i've been snapped by hands as weak as 88 on this kind of board and i do not have an insane image these days.

last, if you give him credit for JTs, you need to credit him with KJs, too

Fair enough. Do you think this is a reasonable range for villain to get to the river and do you agree the action I would expect?

AQ > 12 > villain calls river
KQ > 6 > villain calls river
33 > 1 > villain shoves
44 > 3 > villain shoves
99 > 3 > villain shoves
KhJh > 1 > villains folds or shoves
JhTh > 1 > villains folds or shoves
KhTh > 1 > villains folds or shoves
AhJh > 1 > villains folds or shoves

If those assumptions are correct a bet/fold looks fine. But when you say I give the player pool too much credit I feel like you suggest a bet/call. Or did I understand that wrong?

i mean i think that that is a "normal" range and that's fine (and btw, you have the Kh) but you have to give some weight to hero calls with every PP, making a b/f even more +ev than what you have above suggests. it's always easy to name the standard combos that play this way for 100% of opponents, but in a vac you need to assign some likelihood to the stuff that will show up, like 88-JJ, and WILL call sometimes.

when i say giving too much credit, i mean you are assuming he knows you don't bluff here or whatever. if the above really were his range and he never folded KQ/AQ then obv you should not bluff. it's also a mistake on his part for 100% of his turn calling range (above, according to you) to call the river. or virtually 100%, since JTs and AJs fold. if you are not sure why, i'll let you think about it, since it's a good exercise.

Thanks!

I think you are underestimating how often villain will get to the river, and call a bet, with hands like JJ,TT,88,77,66, etc

Yes I think you are right and I am underestimating it. Because I just don't get how someone that is a reg can call an $18 bet on the river with those holdings. What's the reason to call a 3 barrel with those holdings on a board where I have very very few bluffs in my range? I think that is really terrible so I expect most regs to think so. I'm pretty sure you would almost never call 3 streets with the holdings you mentioned above?

Yes I think you are right and I am underestimating it. Because I just don't get how someone that is a reg can call an $18 bet on the river with those holdings. What's the reason to call a 3 barrel with those holdings on a board where I have very very few bluffs in my range? I think that is really terrible so I expect most regs to think so. I'm pretty sure you would almost never call 3 streets with the holdings you mentioned above?

People are bad at poker, even regs.

Just because someone plays a lot, and has reasonable stats, doesn't mean they are any good.

If we assume players call 3barrels with marginal hands like that, do you think they can shove AQ for value OTR or turn busted draws into bluffs where it's very likely I'm going to bet/call given my line?

If we assume players call 3barrels with marginal hands like that, do you think they can shove AQ for value OTR or turn busted draws into bluffs where it's very likely I'm going to bet/call given my line?

It's possible, but in my experience they are more likely to just call with AQ. Players will bet a busted draw on the river as a bluff when checked to, but it's extremely rare for them to raise a river bet with them.

yeah just a check, that was what I had in mind as well.