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Poker Stars $25.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 1831709
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UTG: $25.00 - VPIP: 26, PFR: 16, 3B: 2, AF: 3.3, Hands: 164

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is SB with K K
UTG raises to $0.75, 2 folds, Hero raises to $2.50, 1 fold, UTG calls $1.75

Flop: ($5.25) 5 4 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $3.25, UTG calls $3.25

Turn: ($11.75) J (2 players)
Hero bets $5.61, UTG calls $5.61

River: ($22.97) 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $13.64, Hero ??

Hey guys,

what should we do on the river? HIs range for calling the flop and the turn is pretty strong here 99-QQ.
I think we should still be betting the turn right? On the river I was very unsure what to do. Would you still bet the river or check call or check fold? The problem of betting is that we probably just get the call from QQ. Check folding is probably best if you can be disciplined enough.

y bet so small on turn? just curious is all. if your range is accurate, then betting larger to extract value from that range is important.

i dont mind the check on the river. calling becomes a math issue. and it's close.
if we figure out villians range. we need to be right about 40% (~37% actually) of the time to make this call on the river. if your equity is greater than that based on your assigned range, this is a call.

please comment on this range:
AT+, AT+, 99+. if we include heart flush draws in his range, then we have 60% equity, which makes it an easy call. if we assume just diamond FD's, then we have 44%, this then becomes more marginal. and removing the bottom end of the NFD's in that range changes things very little if at all.

adding random bluffs like AKo and AQo hands gives us better equity to call.

This is close. I have looked at the hand and realise you were beat by 99.

This is just a cooler - you played the hand fine.

Many would argue jamming river is the right play. I think its close betweem jamming and check calling.

The board would have to be wetter than this to fold an operpair in a 3 bet pot IMO. Check fold is incorrect in my view.

As already have been said it's pretty close but x/call is +EV move I think. I see his range this way: 99-QQ, AdJd-AdQd, and some random bluffs with heart draws also can happen. In addition we get some extra information about the villain by x/calling.

This is close.I have looked at the hand and realise you were beat by 99.

This is just a cooler - you played the hand fine.

How is this even close? I don`t think he ever slowplays a set of nines on a wet board like this.This is either a flush, maybe set of jacks or nothing.
Depends on the sizing, c/c could be ok, but i think in this case its a clear fold.

agreed since I don't see too much nothing in his range here. Does he really go for a double float with a bdfd on the flop? Does he ever float Overcards with no backdoor equity or draw on the flop? I don't think so. If so het shuts down on the turn unless he hit TP, but he's not betting the river with TP..

c/f river.

i think i still would just shove the river myself. but if i thought shoving is -EV i would prefer x/f over x/c because there are not that many hands he could be bluffing with on the river and also there is a good chance he checks back his worse showdownvalue hands.

for this not to be a rivershove we have to assume he slowplays his flushdraws+overs on the flop, slowplays his sets on the turn and river on such a wet board fastplays QQ on the flop or turn and is folding TT on the turn or river. and it seems pretty unlikely for all this to be true.

a likely scenario would be imo


Board: 5d 4h 9d Jh 3d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 66.667% 66.67% 00.00% 6 0.00 { KdKh }
Hand 1: 33.333% 33.33% 00.00% 3 0.00 { QQ, AdQd, AdJd, QdJd }

even if you add JJ to that range you still have 50% equity against his range. and there is a good chance he will fastplay a set on the flop or turn or fastplay a flushdraw+over on the flop or maybe call the turn and river with TT some percentage of the time.

whats his fold to 3bet?

How is this even close? I don`t think he ever slowplays a set of nines on a wet board like this.This is either a flush, maybe set of jacks or nothing.
Depends on the sizing, c/c could be ok, but i think in this case its a clear fold.

How is this a wet board vs a 3b range? Only FD's in hero's range is going to be AQ+.

Also curious as to why you think he never slowplays a set of 9's here, but you think a set of jacks is in his range?

As others have said, bet bigger on the turn so that jamming the river is the only option.

How is this a wet board vs a 3b range? Only FD's in hero's range is going to be AQ+.

What makes you so sure the only flush draw he could have would be AQ+.
You think he might not flat J10s+, A10s+?

Also curious as to why you think he never slowplays a set of 9's here, but you think a set of jacks is in his range?

True it`s not impossible that he slowplayed a set of nines, but it`s very unlikely imo.We don`t see @yack83`s stats, so we don`t know how he percieves his 3b range.If he thinks he might do it with A10+, and cbet 100%, then it`s definately possible he would slowplay.
Imo his most likely holdings when he takes this line will be st/con broadways, and occasionally sets.

What makes you so sure the only flush draw he could have would be AQ+.
You think he might not flat J10s+, A10s+?


True it`s not impossible that he slowplayed a set of nines, but it`s very unlikely imo.We don`t see @yack83`s stats, so we don`t know how he percieves his 3b range.If he thinks he might do it with A10+, and cbet 100%, then it`s definately possible he would slowplay.
Imo his most likely holdings when he takes this line will be st/con broadways, and some sets, but sets are so hard to get.

Just basing my range on a "normal" $25NL 3b range vs an reggish UTG open.

actually c/d the rover would be interesting.
he's bet slightly above half pot. depends on if we think he'd fold a set to that river card.

but anyway, wot i also didnt mention in my original reply, was typically, c/c, c/c, bet, is usually a pretty strong play (at least its always been against me anyways). and the river would almost certainly be a c/f as scs said (without explaining).

Pretty easy valuebet on the river.
Anyone can calculate both c/calling and betting the river, which one is higher ev.

pot flop, shove turn

pot flop, shove turn

why?