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NL30 SH AKo UTG push or fold?

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FlyingMachine

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281 posts
Joined 11/2010

Villain: 280 hands, 18/13, 3bet pf: 10%, Late pos 3bet: 14% (5/35) I don't use squeeze stats on my HUD, and I think we can't use it here well. In this spot I opened UTG, a 24/15 guy called it, and villain squeezed.

Ongame Network $0.15/$0.30 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1828317
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BB: $37.56
Hero (UTG): $38.51
MP: $33.21
CO: $28.50
BTN: $30.27
SB: $36.30

Pre Flop: ($0.45) Hero is UTG with K Club A Heart
Hero raises to $1.20, 1 fold, CO calls $1.20, BTN raises to $4.80, 2 folds

Hero?

The question is easy: Push or fold?

Posted 11 months ago

Adriano85

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898 posts
Joined 02/2012

I would fold. Villain is very nitty and I don't think we have a lot FE. In best case we have 40% equity vs JJ+,AQs+.

Posted 11 months ago

FaceMyAlterEgo

Avatar for FaceMyAlterEgo

386 posts
Joined 07/2010

Against that range JJ+ AQ+ AKo has 50%. Maybe AQ is not in there, but maybe TT is, and probably we have fold equity. Shove.

Posted 11 months ago

Adriano85

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898 posts
Joined 02/2012

Sorry made a typo. AQ+ = AQs+

This is really the best case scenario. I doubt a nit like this is doing this with AQ or JJ..

Based on my own exp we are never good here at micro's vs this type of players.

Anyway I think it's not a big difference in EV to shove or fold.

Posted 11 months ago

hessosick

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8 posts
Joined 04/2012

You can get sqeeze stat in popup. I see a lot of nits who is 3bet and sqeeze happy especially if you fold a lot to 3bets

Posted 11 months ago

FlyingMachine

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281 posts
Joined 11/2010

You think he can squeeze my tight UTG range with TT and JJ? Considering that the other player who called isn't that loose either. I don't know, maybe ha can, but I call in spots like this almost always with JJ, TT.

Posted 11 months ago

hessosick

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8 posts
Joined 04/2012

If hes 3betting 10% hes not sqeezing only with premiums. And hes not concerned about a player who called.

Posted 11 months ago

DrGambol

Avatar for DrGambol

50 posts
Joined 07/2012

well it looks like most of his 3 betting is from later positions, not vs UTG raiser, so I don't think we can apply the 10% 3b stat here. Probably more like half of that or less if adjusted for positions. I just don't see an 18/13 3b half of his VPIP here.

You could also call, or 4b/c. Don't think is has to be push or fold. Against this type of player I'd lean towards a fold. Wouldn't feel too bad about getting it in if he was looser (like 24/20) or if we had a better read about him squeezing as a bluff a lot or that he was a 3 bet monkey and stacked off super wide. With the info given though, most likely a fold.

Posted 11 months ago

thedooze

Avatar for thedooze

12 posts
Joined 06/2011

This is tricky, i hate ak in these situations. Shoving is definitely not the best idea though, youre rarely ever better than a coin flip most of the time. In my opinion hes going to show up with kk or aa here way more than anything you dominate. You could call which keeps his range a little wider and decide to go with it if you hit an A or a K. I dont know, I always have trouble in these situations, also how would you guys play qq in this situation? I've been letting go of ak and qq in situations where theres a 3bet like this or when I'm 4bet by a tight player, especially at these stakes. I hardly see anyone raise like this and show up with something worse than ak, kk or aa.

Posted 11 months ago




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