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Holdem Manager No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) - Holdem Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($105)
BB ($52.29)
UTG ($18.34)
MP ($35.12)
Hero (Button) ($50.33)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 8, 10
2 folds, Hero bets $1.31, 1 fold, BB raises to $4.18, Hero calls $2.87

Flop: ($8.61) 7, 5, 4 (2 players)
BB bets $5, Hero calls $5

Turn: ($18.61) 5 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $9.40, BB calls $9.40

River: ($37.41) K (2 players)
BB checks, [color=#CC3333]Hero bets $31.75 (All-In)

20/16 9% resteal from BB 85 cbet in 3bet pots. Hes decent thinking reg i assume.

I floated flop as his turn cbet only 40% (regular pots) so it looks like hes giving up OTT and i have a lot of backdoors. I follow my plan OTT. River doesn't help his range i think. By bluffing river can I make him fold TT-QQ or just 66 and 88? When he c/c turn what else can he have here? His W$SD is 65 so it looks like hes showing down only strong hands

I'd just fold pre.

Well you certainly can't win by checking!

If I got to the river the same way you did I would be really tempted to jam, but it might not be good. A lot of people won't give you credit on the K river. The story you're telling is that you floated the flop with QK, bluffed the turn, and now hit the K and jam the pot for value. OR you have a set. Both of which are pretty unlikely. Also, his hand looks a lot like 88-JJ, he would probably expect you to bet smaller to get value from his range.

However, I wouldn't get to this river like this. The board is a really really bad board to bluff on the turn. The only part of your range that has anything is sets and overpairs, and the board is paired so it's even more unlikely that you have a set. But you went with a read which can't be terrible, it's just a bad board to test the read on. And once he calls the turn you can just give up.

You dont rep a lot here and I doubt villain would think you would jam TT-88 here. You would probably 4bet JJ and AK BTN vs BB so the only K you can have is something like KQ/KJs. There are only 7 set combos left and villain can easily take this line with AK. I don't see any reason why villain would check the turn with JJ+. The whole story doesnt make really sense so I would not be surprised if villain called you with a medium strenght hand.

His W$SD is 65 so it looks like hes showing down only strong hands

What hands do you put him on the turn that he will hold on the river?

I'd just fold pre.

Me too.

If I didn't the flop call is probably ok. I'm fine with the turn bet too. I agree it isn't the best board to bluff, but our read looks like he is a one and done cbetter. Most people like that are just playing their hand and it's probably ok to fire here. After that I'd give up though. I'm not sure what range we are trying to get to fold on the river - maybe AQ, maybe 66/88.

Floating K high on the flop, betting the turn as a bluff and shoving the river for value is more than plausible, it depends on whether or not he's the kind of villain who perceives AK, TT+ in your pre-flop calling range to determine how thinly you can valuebet and bluff here obviously, but the K is the best possible river card for you to bluff and if he check/calls ~99 I'd just take a note and move on with the knowledge that his check/call turn range in 3bet pots is "unbluffable"

Poor hand to defend preflop, I'd 4bet of fold.

As played I would check back the turn because:

1. If he has an overpair he won't fold. You don't wan't a check-raise (you have some equity) and if he bets the river it will be a valuehand 90% of the time and you can comfortably fold there.
2. If he has a bluff I don't expect him to bet flop, check turn and bet river unimproved. If he checks again you can bet and rep sth like a weak overpair going for thin value (delayed float)

As played after you bet the turn and he calls I'm putting him on an overpair which he checked to induce, maybe AK. I wouldn't bet the river because I don't expect him to fold often enough.

Regards

There's still value in betting the turn, as a turn check/raise on a monotone, paired board is less likely than free-rolling 6 live outs and we're denying "right of first bluff" on the river and setting ourselves up for a possible bet turn, AI river vs 88, 7x etc.

Checking back like AJo there is way more important than checking back a T high gut shot.

Anyone interested in talking about raising the flop?

Anyone interested in talking about raising the flop?

If he is a decent reg as OP assumes then I would read his flop bet as value. Do you think we can push him of an overpaid by raising flop and jamming turn?

it's risky to min-raise the flop, if he 3bets his range we're hanging all of our equity out to dry. If he calls the min-raise you'd better snap check behind the turn IMO.