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Merge Network $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 1821145
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BB: $76.10 [20/15 3b 3%]
UTG: $70.24
CO: $53.67
Hero (BTN): $50.00 [24/19 3b 7%]
SB: $73.75

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BTN with 8 T
2 folds, Hero raises to $1.33, 1 fold, BB calls $0.83

Flop: ($2.91) T 8 A (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $2.91, BB calls $2.91

Turn: ($8.73) 3 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $6.54, BB calls $6.54

River: ($21.81) J (2 players)
BB checks, Hero ???

NOTES:
FOLDS A SHIT TON TO 3B'S CO,BTN,BVB ONLY, OR CALLS AND PLAYS FIT/FOLD
FLOATS IP, BETS RIV VS WEAKNESS QJ-HI ON 7XXXX
RAISE=SET 33 ON 936tt 3W IP 3.4XR
CR AS PFR=SET 55 ON 456tt
FOLD FLOP CBET TO MR ON WET BRD VM T76tt

I consider villain to be fairly fit/fold postflop, except for the 1 note I have on him floating QJ-HI on 7XXXX, actually I'm not even sure if this note has much relevance to his overall game. Anyways, what's my plan on river? Can we even valuebet?

Looking through your uppercase notes, this comes to mind.

FLOATS IP, BETS RIV VS WEAKNESS QJ-HI ON 7XXXX

There is no 7xxxx board texture. Flushdraws, gutshots, they are all part of the board. 72222 is a different board from 73333. Also, positions matter here. Who was where?

RAISE=SET 33 ON 936tt 3W IP 3.4XR
CR AS PFR=SET 55 ON 456tt

If you have a significant sample on him and you've not seen spots where he raised not get to showdown (where he could have been bluffing), I would replace these notes with:
Raise = strong

FOLD FLOP CBET TO MR ON WET BRD VM T76tt

This gives us the inclination to think this player might be cbetting too much, or too weak. It's nowhere near a solid read or even a tendency, so I would give this note very little, if any, consideration.

On to the hand. Preflop standard but on the flop you decide to pot it and on the turn you bomb it as well. This is fine versus the less observant players but versus regulars you might want to consider keeping your bet size with both bluffs and valuehands consistent. I think you are best off bet/folding the river for an innocuous looking betsize like $14 or so. Spades missed and because of villain's low 3bet, hands like AK, AQ are in his range, which he'll not fold. If villain raises he either slowplayed a set or has KQ.

So worse hands that you will usually get check/called with: AK/AQ/A9/A7s-A4s/A2s (51 combos).
Better hands that will call: AJ/AT/JT/A8s/A3s (25 combos). This assumes he always slowplays better 2p on the flop, which he might not, which is better for our bet, since he will now have less of those.

easy valuebet.

Its not such an easy value bet if he doesnt call with A2s-A9s. This is likely if we show considerable strength betting all 3 streets.

Sure is an easy value bet. Flush draw misses so we could get called by Ax a lot here.

The guy is a 20/15. If we assume he 3bets AK pre, the only Ax we get value from On this river is AQ. There's a ton more combos that beat us here including sets and two pair. This is not a value bet, and is more likely a x/f.

Our hand is essentially the same as AK.

The guy is a 20/15. If we assume he 3bets AK pre, the only Ax we get value from On this river is AQ. There's a ton more combos that beat us here including sets and two pair. This is not a value bet, and is more likely a x/f.

Our hand is essentially the same as AK.

This was my line of thinking in game. I don't think this villain will ever call with less than AQ, unless I make it super cheap, like 1/5 pot. I give him the full 12 combos of AQ, and maybe 6 combos of AK, since he may or may not 3bet. We have position, though, so can't x/f, lol, does that change your opinion, or do you still x back? If I bet, I'm definitely going to bet-fold.

Oh oops.

Well if you can put AK in his range then I think a b/f is fine, and I don't really see the point of betting really small. If a value bet is +EV then we want to maximize the value, and TPGK may look you up quite a bit when he takes this line.

Looking through your uppercase notes, this comes to mind.



There is no 7xxxx board texture. Flushdraws, gutshots, they are all part of the board. 72222 is a different board from 73333. Also, positions matter here. Who was where?



If you have a significant sample on him and you've not seen spots where he raised not get to showdown (where he could have been bluffing), I would replace these notes with:
Raise = strong



This gives us the inclination to think this player might be cbetting too much, or too weak. It's nowhere near a solid read or even a tendency, so I would give this note very little, if any, consideration.

On to the hand. Preflop standard but on the flop you decide to pot it and on the turn you bomb it as well. This is fine versus the less observant players but versus regulars you might want to consider keeping your bet size with both bluffs and valuehands consistent. I think you are best off bet/folding the river for an innocuous looking betsize like $14 or so. Spades missed and because of villain's low 3bet, hands like AK, AQ are in his range, which he'll not fold. If villain raises he either slowplayed a set or has KQ.

So worse hands that you will usually get check/called with: AK/AQ/A9/A7s-A4s/A2s (51 combos).
Better hands that will call: AJ/AT/JT/A8s/A3s (25 combos). This assumes he always slowplays better 2p on the flop, which he might not, which is better for our bet, since he will now have less of those.

Emergence, thanks for your solid analysis on my note taking and on villain's range analysis. I give villain 6 combos of AK, 12 of AQ, I don't think he calls with A9 or worse unless I make it super small. I think villain will x/r AT/A8s otf most of the time, so I give him around 4 combos of AT/A8s instead of the full 8. I don't think he ever gets to river with JT since we have the T . So imo, better hands that call are AJ/AT/A8s/A3s (15 combos), worse hands AK/AQ(18 combos).

EDIT:
Hands that raise: KQ, 97, so 2 more better hand combos

Thanks for everyone's comments. I ended up bet-folding. Just wanted to know if it was +EV valuebet. With the particular range I give villain, it's just barely over 50%, 17 better combos, and 18 worse, so it is +EV, but just super thin. Thanks again!