Micro Stakes Online NL Poker Forums

Villain is playin pretty nitty 18/12 over 200ish hands, no particular reads on him, other one that he likes to slowplay in position.

PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) ZOOM - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: $24.84
SB: $9.46
BB: $23.73
UTG: $6.40
MP: $30.56
Hero (CO): $21.10

SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has Q Q

fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.30, BTN calls $0.30, fold, BB calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.95, 3 players) 7 4 7
BB checks, Hero bets $0.64, BTN calls $0.64, fold

Turn: ($2.23, 2 players) Q
Hero bets $1.70, BTN calls $1.70

River: ($5.63, 2 players) 7
Hero bets $1.50, BTN raises to $5.00
Hero?
Before i bet the river i was gonna call a shove, bc he would be slowplaying AA/KK, and i bet small to get calls from middle pairs might have continued with.With those nitty stats i just cant put any 7`s in his range here.

bet small to induce? what sort of hands do you expect to 'induce' from? i think the sizing is probably fine, since this kind of player will fold 99 or whatever to a larger bet and should now raise KK+.

as far as how many 7x he has...he should have the basic ones, at least. he's not THAT nitty, he just doesn't raise much pre. if he has 50% of KK/AA then 3betting should be really thin EV (76s/78s v 3 combos KK/AA).

it's not terribly difficult to find a few more random Qx or something given we only need more than two or three total to make a raise > call, so i suppose you could either min3b/fold or jam.

bet small to induce? My bad that was totaly out of the context.

My bad that was totaly out of the context.

it's not terribly difficult to find a few more random Qx or something given we only need more than two or three total to make a raise > call, so i suppose you could either min3b/fold or jam.

So you are saying that flating is the worst option out of 4?
What about folding?I can never seem to get myself to fold these spots since the only hand that beat us is a 7, and there are few qx combos that he might think it`s worth to raise for value, aswell as AA/KK.Is it -EV to ever fold here?

I'd flat here.

My bad that was totaly out of the context.


So you are saying that flating is the worst option out of 4?
What about folding?I can never seem to get myself to fold these spots since the only hand that beat us is a 7, and there are few qx combos that he might think it`s worth to raise for value, aswell as AA/KK.Is it -EV to ever fold here?

flatting mathematically can't be worst

you are calling 3.50 to win 12.13, so you need ~22% to call. to raise profitably, you need >50%

if your EV against his raise is <22%
fold > call > raise (putting in any money is bad, so putting in more is worse)

if your EV against his raise is between 22 and 50,
call is best and the EV of raise depends on his calling range, your sizing, etc. the EV of folding is still 0 (putting in some is good, putting in more is worse but not necessarily -ev)

if your EV against his calling range after you raise is above 50
raise > call > fold (putting in money is good, putting in more is better)

in short, if calling is bad, raising is worse; if folding is bad, calling is never worst. so no, flatting is never the worst option. it can never be -ev to fold, since the ev of putting nothing in and getting nothing out is 0. this is REALLY key fundamental math stuff, so make sure you understand it.

as far as places to look for value, this wouldn't top my list. i think you can make the case mathematically that it could be a +ev raise. what is odd is that you posted this saying you bet small expecting to induce and now you have gotten raised and consider folding? you do say it was out of context but i am still not sure what you meant. you definitely should not consider folding here, though.

On the river I would bet $4.00 into the $5.63 pot. If villain called you on two streets why not just bet normal on the river? Why would you put villain on a 7? You can't just put someone on hand because there are three 7s' out there. Obviously he could have one but it shouldn't stop you from betting normal. That river bet is just asking to be check raised. I would shove over the top after villain check raised. If he had a 7 wouldn't he check raise the turn?

Inducing thing was a typo (sorry), as i was talking with a friend on skype, so accendentally typed it in here, it has nothing to do with this hand.

I did consider folding, i had a strong feeling he had a 7 or aces there, i think this guy was too nitty to raise a queen, then it only made sence to do it with AA/KK/Quads.What even made me more suspicious was the raise size, which looks like it`s begging for a call.I do understand the math side of it to an extent, but thx for breaking it down, and making it more clear.

In retrospect, i tanked for all of my time bank, considering all of the 4 options, and decided that flating was the most +Ev given the pot odds.

Wish i had the strength to just go with my gut and muck it, not talking only about this specific spot, but in general when the odds and your hand are too good to pass, and even though everything in your body tells you you`re beat, you make the decisions mathematicly, rather then on feeling.

I still don't understand how you are analyzing this hand? (I'm not trying to be rude or put you on the spot) I don't think the raise size is suspicious. Your bet was so small that villain basically just acted like you never even bet in the first place. The math of the hand is very important but you also need to analyze how your plays and bet sizing makes your opponents think and react.

I still don't understand how you are analyzing this hand? (I'm not trying to be rude or put you on the spot) I don't think the raise size is suspicious. Your bet was so small that villain basically just acted like you never even bet in the first place. The math of the hand is very important but you also need to analyze how your plays and bet sizing makes your opponents think and react.

Are you insinuating that he might be bluffing because of my small river bet? What is your analysis of that hand, and don`t worry there`s no room for pride here, it`s poker and its money.I`m talking about Math/Feel.I don`t need to go deep about hande ranges here, since it`s pretty simple.What are you really saying the raise is not suspicious, what do you make of it?And what do you do on the river:
1)Bet small, call a shove or a raise
2)Bet bigger, fold to a shove or a raise
?

if his range is reasonable 7x and all AA, you have a very profitable call (75% eq v 22% needed)

Board: 7d 4s 7h Qh 7s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 75.000% 75.00% 00.00% 18 0.00 { QQ }
Hand 1: 25.000% 25.00% 00.00% 6 0.00 { AA, 87s, 76s }

change his range to 7x and 1/6 of AA combos and you have:

Board: 7d 4s 7h Qh 7s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.333% 33.33% 00.00% 3 0.00 { QQ }
Hand 1: 66.667% 66.67% 00.00% 6 0.00 { AhAs, 87s, 76s }

33% > 22%, still a call

of course, if he only has 7x here, your call loses 35BB. this is not a trivial amount, but it requires quite a bit more confidence than you have offered here.

last, do not rely on 'feel' in spots like this. you simply don't have enough info. folding is a mistake if your equity is over 22% just as calling is a mistake if it is below 22. this is a VERY important point. a lot of uNL players forget that folding can be a mistake. forgoing a +ev opportunity is a mistake.

I don`t even need to stove his range, it`s simple like this.

Flop:Hands that he`ll continue with :

Pocket 4`s,33,22, 88/AA,56s,86s,and any 7. I think he doesn`t float broadways, but you never know, still this is widest range i can give him.

Turn-He folds 88,99,56s,86s,22,33, maybe continues with Jacks, but not likely.So what we have left are AA/KK, pocket 4`s and a 7.

River-This guy, in a few hands that i`ve seen him go to showdown with(15+ hands), was so nitty.For example he twice slowplayed aces, and flated a 3/4 bet on the river when the bd flush got there with trips, c/c every street.

He also doesn`t raise 2pair and str8`s on semi scary bd`s when paired or flush.

He raises very small for value with the nuts.

So, all these combined i think the optimal play on the river is bet/fold.But since he was so nitty, and it was more likely for him to consider aces as the nuts here, i elected to bet small/call.

Btw you`re right my OP was a little shallow, i should`ve written all the reads i had on him, due to better analysis.

After reading that I 100% think this is a call.

With the information you have provided us with on villain, wouldn't check calling be better since you are OOP, in case he does have AA, KK, or a 7? And I would call his river raise....If I'm wrong in the end I think I made the right call....

With the information you have provided us with on villain, wouldn't check calling be better since you are OOP, in case he does have AA, KK, or a 7? And I would call his river raise....If I'm wrong in the end I think I made the right call....

I like the c/c, might be the best line.

neither of you is thinking about this in terms of ranges. you need to think about the whole range of hands to determine an action here. you can't just name a few combos and seek to target just those.

it's possible c/c has higher ev than betting, but i doubt it.

if you check, he bets Qx+. we win v Qx/KK/AA and lose to 7x. we have a very profitable c/c, but he puts in less than he would have (with his range) than had we bet.

we bet, he calls with Qx/KK/AA (raising these a non-zero 0%) and raises 7x. there are very few 7x combos relative to everything else. the small extra amount we lose to 2-3 7x combos is more than made up for by the times he calls with 88+ that would have checked behind.