Micro Stakes Online NL Poker Forums

The situation - Im on the SB with 99 100bb, the button who covers me opens for 3bb, he is 65/30 over 20 hands loose aggro who has been running super hot. I call and we are heads-up on the flop.

The flop is 625r - I check to him and he bets his usual pot cbet and I call. His range is basically two random cards. The turn is 7s, which does not put a flush draw on the board. I check, he bets half pot, I raise the pot and he flat calls. His range here remains pretty wide, but his most likely holdings are straight draws and/or a weak pair. I raised because I think he is reraising his monsters and there is a decent chance he will call even with Ace high or a weak pair, because he is pretty loose.

The river is 9. I made a set and it puts four-to-a-straight. The pot is 100bb and effective stacks are 50bb. I check, he shoves.

Here's what I think: there are 17-18% chance that he holds an 8, but he is shoving 100% of the times he has it. For the call to be +EV he needs to shove without an 8 4-5% of the time, which is reasonable and i think I made a good call. Do you think the same and was the turn bet a mistake?

he's hit the straight on the river.
so raise your 99 over pair vrs this guy sooner. if he continues to chase, then there's not much taht you can do. some people just like getting to the river and see if they can make something.

invariably they do.