Micro Stakes Online NL Poker Forums

Yay. Done.

I have tons of notes and observations but the short answer is:

EV of 40 cent bet = 58 cents
EV of check = 43 cents

I noticed a lot of patterns in what was right on the turn and river... So I can make some sweeping statements about what I'd do on the turn and river too with high confidence.

In a way... the situation was not too complex because of the simple tendencies of the two villains.. so it was complex in that there were many situations to work through... but simple in that many of those situations are pretty basic with the hand I had vs the ranges they had.... and I started to get used to thinking about how light I think they'd bet and what that meant for my hand.

So yeah. I'll be posting more detail at some stage soon.

I have to say... the process has been an eye opener.

The amount of time I've just spent thinking about other player's ranges and tendencies... doing this regularly is going to completely change my game just by that alone.

Oh and by the way... increasing the betsize on the flop increased the EV of the bet by 2 cents for every 5 cents of increase in bet size.

So a 55c bet yielded 64 cents in EV.

(assuming inelastic ranges, which I do in this spot.)

Very well done!

So what are your thoughts now on turn and river in terms of playability and how that influences our flop decision? E.g. can you think of examples when we should be checking and when we should be betting?

Very well done!

So what are your thoughts now on turn and river in terms of playability and how that influences our flop decision? E.g. can you think of examples when we should be checking and when we should be betting?

Yep I know what I would do on ALL turn and river combinations.

I'm trying to figure out a good way to put across the full info.

tbh it seems like a perfect candidate for DC short going over this

tbh it seems like a perfect candidate for DC short going over this

The hand or the process?

I think coming to understand this way of looking at the game is pretty valuable... and so I have been considering making a member video actually showing the use of CRev from the perspective of someone who has had the misconceptions that I have been living with lately. It could be an interesting vid for the uNL crowd because it highlights some of the why questions that bug really methodical people like me. I've been procrastinating so much with poker because I never felt I had identified a methodology I was satisfied with.

And it's not at all intuitive what the hell we're talking about if you don't know CRev or Poker Razor or multi street EV calcs in general and that sort of thing...

and a video is going to make the information I have much more palatable. It's either that or about a 10,000 word epic poem in rhyming couplets.

A video of you going through that process would be pure gold. Love to see it

It would be really interesting to analyse this spot in a DC short

Yep I know what I would do on ALL turn and river combinations.

That's true but you're like the master on this particular hand now! It would be interesting to see what your recommendations are for someone that gets into this spot without having the intrinsic knowledge of what will happen on the turn and river. Also what our general strategy should be with the hand. E.g fire once and give up, or barrel and turn our hand in a bluff at some point, etc.

I see what you're saying.

Basically what we have is a hand that can almost never stand a bet from our opponents, but when checked to has a lot of reason to bet for a combination of protection and value. This is true on almost all turn cards too. On the river however, those hands providing us with value on the flop and turn are no longer doing so on the river. We still can't stand a bet on really any river vs these sorts of villains, and we now don't have value we can get, or protection we need, so checking through to showdown works great.

I can provide way more detail than that... but those are the broad strokes. I'm confident to bet this flop with the intention of betting almost any turn and showing down on almost any river.

Also... it's interesting to think what sort of hand 88s is in the scheme of things... like where 88s is in terms of relative strength vs a couple of opponents whose tendencies are quite predictable. That leads us to deduce some things about similar hands in similar spots. Like is it that different a spot if I have A7s or 87s here for a straight middle pair hand?

I've been steadily working on a video to explain this stuff a bit better... and to show people through the process...

Sorry it's taking so long but it's been hard to find time and I've been trying to do a decent job with it.

And.....

It's a bit epic so it's now going to be 2 videos (at least).

The first one I'm nearly finished and can post in a couple of days or actually probably tomorrow.

That way I can get some feedback while still working on the second one.

I've never done a video or even tried to explain anything like this before so I hope it's OK.

Super looking forward to it

http://www.deucescracked.com/forums/22-Member-Videos/topics/543321-Multistreet-EV-Method

Here's the first video. There's a new thread for it.

In this video I just try to make a couple of basic points and lay the groundwork for attacking multistreet EV calculations.

I hope it doesn't suck too much, I've never tried to make something like this before and I welcome any constructive feedback.