The Loose-passive caller
What do we expect him to do with different hands in his range when the PFR checks?
Well passive or not I would say he'd bet what overpairs he has at this point almost always.
He's going to be very happy with his hand.
He's not thinking about my range or anything... just likes his hand vs the board and is going to bet. I do still expect to be wrong about that occasionally given the generally random way people at 10NL can play, but it's a very small part of the range so I won't lose too much sleep over it.
KK-JJ combos -- 12
I'm not certain how this guy would play a set because loose passive players at 10NL play sets almost every conceivable way they can be played... they love the old check/call flop check/raise turn thing... but some of them bet them... some check/raise flop... 2 diamonds might make that more likely here... in any case... he has flopped a set almost exactly 2% of the time. If I allow for some betting-out and some check-raising...
lets let him keep half of his set combos for the old flop-c/c - turn-c/r move.
And 25% of them can go into his flop check/raising range. You can see here I've started dealing in fractions of combos. That's fine because underneath the combos we're really just talking about the percentages anyway.
TT, 77, 22 -- 9 combos
2.25 go into flop check/raise range
4.5 go into flop check/call range (with the intention of check/raising turn)
As a post script to the sets he flops 2 pair with his T7s hand which only has 2 combos anyway for a paltry 0.46% of his range...so I'm going to leave both of those in his range just so I can't be accused of taking liberties though I do think he'd bet them sometimes I really don't know so might as well leave them in.
There are 2 combos. Lets give 1 to his c/c - turn c/r range and 1 to his flop c/r range.
T7s -- 2 combos
1 goes into flop check/raise range
1 goes into flop check/call – turn check/raise range
I'm going to keep all his top pair hands in for a check/call, all the way from TPTK down, as well as 99 and the one combo of 88. This is due to his passivity.
AT-JT, T9, T8s, 99-88 -- 69 combos
69 go into flop check/call range
As for his middle pair hands, I'm going to deal only with middle pair hands that do NOT also have a flush draw. I deal with flush draws later and I expect all of those to call with or without middle pair.
1) - I expect A7(:heart)() and K7(:heart)() to call a bet always. (4 combos)
2) - I expect middle pair with a 9 or an 8 to call half the time (maybe less if I bet bigger) and fold the rest of the time. So that's 87o (5 combos) 87(:heart), and 97(:heart)() 8 combos total.
3) - I expect middle pair with an undercard to the 7 to call only about 25% of the time and fold the rest of the time. So that's 9 combos of 76o, 76( )(), 75( )(), and 74( )() 12 combos total.
A7( )(), K7( )(), 87o, 87(:heart), 97( )(), 76o, 76( )(), 75( )(), and 74( )() -- 24 combos total
11 go into flop check/call range
13 go into flop check/fold range
I think he'll check/fold bottom pair and any pocket pairs from 66-33.
33-66, A2s-K2s, 32, 42s, 52s -- 48 combos
48 go into flop check/fold range
That leaves hands that haven't flopped a pair.
Of those there are 2-overcard hands that I expect him to call a bet with. (6 with flush draws)
AK-AJ, KQ-KJ, QJ -- 96 combos
96 go into flop check/call range
There are additional flush draws (not already included in the 2 over cards hands and including the pair+flush draw of A7s-K7s). They're in for a c/c
A9s-J9s, A7s-A3s, K7s-K3s, 97s-96s, 76s-43s, 75s-53s, 74-63s -- 25 combos
25 go into check/calling range
There are OESDs… they're in for a c/c
98 -- 8 combos
8 go into check/calling range
He also has some combos of J8 and J9 that are not covered elsewhere… they're a gutshot + over card combo that I don't think he calls always… but sometimes… I'm going to include about half of them.
J9o, J9s (not diamonds), J8s (not because I have the 8 ) -- 17 combos
8 go into check/calling range
9 go into check/folding range
And I expect him to fold all the rest of his hands that didn't hit.
I won't name the hands but they're rag suited aces of non diamond suits, and lots of those small suited connectors/gappers and offsuit connectors etc.
[i]Shite -- 133 combos
133 go into check/folding range.
That's everything for the Caller. About 429 combos total (428.75) Some of his check/calling range is stronger than the UTG villain's range at this point because he has top pair hands in. So 203 combos or nearly half of his range I expect to fold to a bet here. I almost never expect to see a check/raise, and of his check/calling range, about 75 combos have me drawing to 2 outs, which is interesting.