Micro Stakes Online NL Poker Forums

@stanmore - I think this is a super good analysis! Given everything that you said it looks like it's definately a bet! However, the following bit is questionable:



If you stove your equity versus both ranges it should be around 30%-40% depending on what you stick in there. So surely this must change your assessment on the situation somewhat? No reason to skip part of your analysis, a similar spot will come up again in future no doubt

Thanks I'll look at the other guys range too tomorrow and see what that spits out.

Perhaps think about how showdown value works a bit more deeply. The reasons for a profitable bet doesn't have to fall into a well defined "bucket" of value, bluff, protection, etc. In order to have showdown value you must actually reach the showdown and win. So think about the various turn and river runouts and your opponent strategies then see if that leads you to a spot where you can win the showdown. Only when you put together the entire hand including the turn and river play can you completely understand showdown value and how to best play hands and spots just like this one.

Also: all in equity calculations on the flop vs ranges misses the whole point here. Think about why this is and you'll get better at poker. Good luck!

Thanks dude I'm gonna think about that a bit before saying any more. I think I know what you're on about but not sure.

Wow I was working on a range etc. for "The Other Guy" as @estist suggested... and time got away from me.

I'm not finished and I'm dead tired. So I'm gonna sleep and finish tomorrow night.

Then after that I'll combine the two together to examine the spot multiway.

Lastly I'll have to look at the playability of the hand for various turn/river combos.. as @shuttle has alluded to... this is likely to lead me to many more problems and questions. (coz I suck at teh pokerz)

Back tomorrow.

i woudlnt worry about working on a Pokerstove range for the other guy, his relative position is gonna make him play very honest, and so is PFR...shuttle3 is pretty spot on with his post....you shouldnt really be pokerstoving villains ranges multi-way one person etc, because villains arent gonna be playing certain parts of there range passively or aggressive etc...And us looking at there ranges is gonna make us dependant on exactly in a way that pokerstove says.if were 40% well we are gonna play the hand passive cause we are behind...well doesnt mean we cant bluff out parts of his range...Pokerstove is pot equity vs a range...it doesnt include FE, player types or anything like that or planning the hand, there is turns and rivers to come and FE, value etc....Just plan the most +EV line vs villain....just cause we are behind in pokerstove doesnt mean we should be playing passive.

Well in my opinion it's very important to figure out your opponents. I personally like to dive into my database and look for similar spots and see what people show up with, and how they play it. Like I said before, I have no objection against betting if there is reasoning and a plan in place for later streets. My own analysis has shown in the past, especially at 5, 10NL and 20NL that people do not fold very often on these types of boads. So if they are not going to fold and your going to bet, you've got to know what they have in their calling range and how your going to approach turn and river. I argued that if you check it back, and they check another round on whatever turn card, their range is defined i.e. they can no longer have any (or a minor amount) of their betting and raising range but they still have a calling range thats weak and a folding range. We could in such cases still get a street or perhaps even two streets of value. Overall I think that the EV of this play will be a bit higher than betting the flop, but who knows

Yep to both of you I agree... I actually need practice just looking at ranges and seeing how skewed they are anyway. It's frustrating attempting to put fish on ranges.. that's why someone like me gets lazy and just resorts to the pedestrian adage of just betting betting betting and folding when they raise.

I'll be looking at the possible turns and rivers situation after that.

It is true that this hand cannot be analysed properly as though the flop is the only street to be played.

But there has to be better and more efficient ways to look at a poker spot than what I'm doing... Like ok I work full time and such so this conversation is being drawn out over a week or whatever... but even so I've spent several hours just thinking about what their ranges can be, what I think they will probably do with the different parts of their ranges and so on...

So the fact that it's a multiway spot doesn't help...

It looks like what Shuttle wants me to do is extrapolate out different types of turn and river combinations... how I expect the rest of the hand to play out vs the different parts of 2 villain's ranges... if I do different things on the turn and/or river...

It's a mind boggling task IMO... I must be doing something wrong or approaching something wrong.

It's obvious that this sort of analysis in some form is an essential part of becoming balla at teh pokerz... because decent players appear to be able to announce with confidence that they're going to do x with the intention of doing y on these turns and z on these turns etc...

I must be doing it wrong... or maybe it's just because I'm going through the process of forming ranges for my villains along the way... which I'm not used to doing so that's taking time...


Are there any DC videos on this kind of thing worth watching?

Hey contact me on skype, this is a ton easier to explain that way.

pot bet ATC here as a bluff and take it down often.

Why not post it itt Shuttle?

Why not post it itt Shuttle?

We went over it a bit. It's not super-secret but it was in Australian so there will be some delay in translating it to English.

I have barely gotten started with this spot. It's way more interesting to me than I ever thought when I originally posted it.

So the conversation is definitely not over.

I would like to hear more also! Interesting topic...

Im 3 betting pre with about an 80 or 90 cents to iso the fish .... then c betting the wet flop in position if its hu ..
If its not hu then I shut down .b+b... I don't mind flat calling if the fish are 100bb+ deep. It also depends on the fishes stats too ...

We went over it a bit. It's not super-secret but it was in Australian so there will be some delay in translating it to English.

I have barely gotten started with this spot. It's way more interesting to me than I ever thought when I originally posted it.

So the conversation is definitely not over.

??? isnt australlian, english??

??? isnt australlian, english??

short answer yes..long answer no.

Truth is I'm going to do a full breakdown of the spot... using a different method, but that is going to take me some time. Like most of tomorrow.... but it'll hopefully lay out an approach to a spot like this one.