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NL4- TT set vs Reg. Value Bet on scary River?

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luca9090

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11 posts
Joined 06/2012

Boss $4.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1799489
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

SB: $7.09
BB: $7.63
UTG: $3.78
Hero (MP): $11.92
CO: $31.18
BTN: $1.12

Pre Flop: ($0.06) Hero is MP with T Diamond T Club
UTG raises to $0.20, Hero calls $0.20, CO calls $0.20, 2 folds, BB calls $0.16

Flop: ($0.82) 6 Diamond T Heart J Club (4 players)
BB checks, UTG bets $0.41, Hero calls $0.41, CO folds, BB calls $0.41

Turn: ($2.05) 5 Heart (3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $1.12, BB calls $1.12, UTG folds

River: ($4.29) Q Heart (2 players)
BB checks, Hero Value Bet-No value bet?

OR: 39\7
-----------------
BB is a 20\14, the only logical Regular i've found at this level
AF: 3.8
WTSD: 20
W$SD: 50

Posted 11 months ago

fezoff

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81 posts
Joined 07/2011

I don't really see what you can get value from that would check/call flop and turn. I would check behind as if he does have a flus, unlikely, I wouldn't open myself up to a c/r that would be difficult to call.

Posted 11 months ago

kReATivE

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179 posts
Joined 05/2012

This is definitely a value bet. Villain can have QJ, KQ and the only flushes he really has in his range are going to be KHeartJHeart and AHeartJHeart...I guess he could have 8Heart7Heart and 9Heart8Heart as well, but he would probably raise on the turn some of the time.

Also, bet more on the turn!

Posted 11 months ago

fezoff

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81 posts
Joined 07/2011

This is definitely a value bet. Villain can have QJ, KQ and the only flushes he really has in his range are going to be KHeartJHeart and AHeartJHeart...I guess he could have 8Heart7Heart and 9Heart8Heart as well, but he would probably raise on the turn some of the time.

Also, bet more on the turn!



How do you think villain to play a flush on the river?

Posted 11 months ago

kReATivE

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179 posts
Joined 05/2012

I think he x/c's here with QJ 100% of the time. Given, he probably only has 2 combos of QJ, but if he calls w/ just one or 2 combos of KQ, then we're going to have 50% equity easily.

Posted 11 months ago

fezoff

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81 posts
Joined 07/2011

I'm just working my way through setting up eb calcs in excel and I'm sure this will be a good candidate for a test run

Posted 11 months ago

rungood992

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71 posts
Joined 10/2009

yeah def bet/fold. ppl at micro stakes dont bluff shove river flushes with marginal show-down value....just value bet, kreative is right, there's plenty of stuff he can call with.

also, bet bigger on the turn. he's not going to fold a draw and given you have TT thats most likely what his range consists of (pair+gutter, oesd etc) so bet like $1.65

Posted 11 months ago

ambtndplyr

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379 posts
Joined 02/2009

kReATivE

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179 posts
Joined 05/2012

ambtndplyr

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379 posts
Joined 02/2009

Why exactly?



for value. openraiser isnt going anywhere with overpairs, any J, KQ AK AQ etc

Posted 11 months ago

kReATivE

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179 posts
Joined 05/2012

Openraiser's cbet is weak here, so I don't think he has Jx or an overpair. His range is going to be very air heavy so raising I think is going to be less +EV than calling....unless we have a note/read of course on UTG's betting pattern.

Posted 11 months ago

ambtndplyr

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379 posts
Joined 02/2009

Openraiser's cbet is weak here, so I don't think he has Jx or an overpair. His range is going to be very air heavy so raising I think is going to be less +EV than calling....unless we have a note/read of course on UTG's betting pattern.



why would his cbet be weak?! and you really think a 39/7 (passive obv) will bluff away crazy on later streets anyway?
raise flop. get value from worse made hands and draws. not even close

Posted 11 months ago

kReATivE

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179 posts
Joined 05/2012

1/2 pot sized bets typically mean weaker ranges from what I've noticed in the micros.

Posted 11 months ago

kReATivE

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179 posts
Joined 05/2012

Also, UTG is playing a short stack so you still will be able to get stacks in on the turn or river vs his entire flop value range.

Posted 11 months ago

ambtndplyr

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379 posts
Joined 02/2009

i dont know. i play 200nl and just answer the nlhe-6max thread once a day that comes up on dc front page for me. im obviously not in touch with micro games but im pretty sure noone will spew away no quity hands here on later streets, nore will someone go for 3 streets value with a tp kinda hand, esp not a passive fish as utg. so we should use that passiveness by raising our nutted hands and create a big pot. and if he folds there wouldnt have gone more money into the pot anyway. we also can kinda protect to slow him down on actionkillers, esp when obv kq hits.
i cannot see any advantage of just calling, beside letting him bluff (what as said almost never happens imo)

Posted 11 months ago




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