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Really trying to think about how i play 3 bet pots. Here this guy is pretty tight, only opening 13% hands OTB and playing 16/8 AF 38, fold to 3 bet 0 (0/1), but only over 61 hands.

Could be argued i shouldn't 3 bet here but calling and playing OOP with no idea on his post flop play doesn't seem like the best way. (saying that i dont know how he plays in 3 bet pots either)

I give him a calling range of 66-JJ, AJo, KJo AJs, KJs, ATs maybe Some lower suited cards like QJs KTs. Discounted AQ and QQ due to blockers.

So on the flop my fold equity isnt massive, my pot equity is about 50/50 maybe less. I have 36 combos that beat me and 100+ that don't. So if he folds a good potion of these a c bet is +EV, but he might float with some of these, but given his low AF probably not.

But experience is telling me to give up OOP in 3 bet pots at these stakes, people just hate folding.

Thoughts?

Party Poker $10 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1765546
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

CO: $14.16
BTN: $10.21
Hero (SB): $11.05
BB: $3.44
UTG: $20.91
MP: $10.00

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is SB with Q A
3 folds, BTN raises to $0.30, Hero raises to $1, 1 fold, BTN calls $0.70

Flop: ($2.10) 4 8 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.10, BTN calls $1.10

Turn: ($4.30) 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: ($4.30) 6 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

Final Pot: $4.30

First, you can't just discount AQ and QQ due to blockers, because there are some combos and you have to know how many are they.

Second, how did you calculated that you have 50% pot equity ? I think you calculate it, not considering that you need your pot equity against his calling range, not full part of his range.

And third, you easilly can calculate is Cbet +ev given randomly assumptions.
It's ok to make wrong assumptions, but you just need to go depth into the things with assumptions.


And to make you happy, yes your Flop Cbet is highly +EV if you don't expect villain to float you with A high, because :

there are 47 combos which continue (flushdraws + overpairs)
and 50 combos which fold, but you need arrount 33% fold equity to break even, and you just have more than 50% fold equity, so you don't need any pot equity to win Cbetting any2 here.

The other thing is if you expect villain to float you with A high on the flop, your Cbet on the turn will be break even given assumption that your assumptions are 100% right (about his range), so i will ch/fold both flop and the turn if expect villain floating me with A high.

When i said 50% equity on the flop i just meant what stove gave me against his range. Are there some videos you can recommend since im not sure how to work out fold equity ect

Mathematics of NL Holdem by Wilt on Tilt is for you.

I'm comfortably 2b this, 846 doesn't touch villains range, you'll get a ton of folds ott.