Micro Stakes Online NL Poker Forums

Villain stats: 92 hands, 17/8, AFq: 53, Fold to 3bet: 0/1, Flop fold to cbet: 33% (2/6), Flop raise: 14% (1/7)

Ongame Network $0.10/$0.20 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 1764726
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BTN: $24.23
SB: $45.52
Hero (BB): $20.00
UTG: $3.60
CO: $20.30

Pre Flop: ($0.30) Hero is BB with Q Q
UTG raises to $0.60, 1 fold, BTN calls $0.60, 1 fold, Hero raises to $2.90, 1 fold, BTN calls $2.30

Flop: ($6.50) T 7 K (2 players)

Hero?

Not the best possible flop. I think I must cbet here, but I'm not sure. His call and 3bet call is interesting, he probably don't have premium hands, I put him on pp's like 77-JJ, or suited AQs, KQs etc. If I should cbet, how much? Any other thoughts on the hand?

I don't like this board to cbet.

Too many hands are going to call on this board so we will have to fire a turn barrel very often:

I think AQ/AJ will call one street (let's say 50% of the time) so we have to barrel turn
I think JJ will call one street so we have to barrel turn
I think TT/77 will call/raise, when called we have to barrel turn because of the AQ/AJ/JJ
I think 99/88 will fold to our cbet
I think KQ isn't going anywhere vs multiple barrels

I think AQ/AJ will call one street (let's say 50% of the time) so we have to barrel turn
I think JJ will call one street so we have to barrel turn

I don't really understand the logic in these?

I would probably flat pre, depending on UTG's opening range and his 3bet calling range.

I think it's pretty close on the flop. I'd probably x/c once and x/f the turn unimproved. Because he doesn't seem to be very aggressive, at least not preflop, and is probably the type who only plays his cards.

Against someone more competent x/c is usually pretty bad because you often turn your hand face up.

Sorry totally messed up. Was talking about an AQ hand with a friend and thought hero had AQ in this hand...

what type of a player is the button?

Very few hands to trust the stats postflop imo
I think i would bet/fold flop (around 3.5$) and c/f fold any turn (beside Qs)

Sorry, I wasn't online the last few days. He seems to be a fit or fold player for me.

Ok, so whats your reasoning behind 3betting preflop?

edit: Also utg, whats his stats, and your history to him?

call pre vs this tight range, 3betting only isolates the top of his range, which your doing poorly against on this flop, unless villian is capable of folding strong hands, as played id be x/x/xing for a cheap showdown which is unlikely we will get to here

If you're going to 3 bet you need to do it smaller. This is way too large. As to whether we should 3 bet or not, I would have based it on my reads on him in the last 92 hands. You should have some reads on his post flop play or his preflop ranges after this many hands. Looking at stats and saying oh he has a tight range so we can't 3 bet is pretty useless a lot of the time imo. We need to see what he is doing since stats arn't so useful until you have a lot of hands on someone and even then it only tells a quarter of the story. Stats are more useful for identifying very quickly who the fish are (like 80% hands played in the last 100 is a good indicator that they are bad) rather than finding out how to play against tight players/regs.

If you're going to 3 bet you need to do it smaller. This is way too large. As to whether we should 3 bet or not, I would have based it on my reads on him in the last 92 hands. You should have some reads on his post flop play or his preflop ranges after this many hands. Looking at stats and saying oh he has a tight range so we can't 3 bet is pretty useless a lot of the time imo. We need to see what he is doing since stats arn't so useful until you have a lot of hands on someone and even then it only tells a quarter of the story. Stats are more useful for identifying very quickly who the fish are (like 80% hands played in the last 100 is a good indicator that they are bad) rather than finding out how to play against tight players/regs.

why isolate the top of an already strong range when you have excellent equity vs his total UTG PFR range when ur going to a flop OOP vs an unknown opponent, by 3betting ur only folding out worse hands and getting caled by mostly better if not only better/flips

i agree with you about reads after 90 hands you should have som post flop read

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

955,465,632 games 0.076 secs 12,571,916,210 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.438% 35.66% 00.78% 340709388 7438650.00 { 88+, ATs+, KTs+, QJs, AJo+ }
Hand 1: 63.562% 62.78% 00.78% 599878944 7438650.00 { QQ }

vs

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

441,774,432 games 0.000 secs 88,354,886,400 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.008% 45.67% 01.34% 201739464 5929362.00 { TT+, AQs+, AKo }
Hand 1: 52.992% 51.65% 01.34% 228176244 5929362.00 { QQ }

on this flop

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

472,230 games 0.020 secs 23,611,500 games/sec

Board: Kc 7d Tc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.707% 46.99% 00.71% 221919 3369.00 { 88+, ATs+, KTs+, QJs, AJo+ }
Hand 1: 52.293% 51.58% 00.71% 243573 3369.00 { QQ }

vs


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

196,020 games 0.004 secs 49,005,000 games/sec

Board: Kc 7d Tc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 70.163% 68.68% 01.48% 134634 2899.50 { TT+, AQs+, AKo }
Hand 1: 29.837% 28.36% 01.48% 55587 2899.50 { QQ }

why isolate the top of an already strong range when you have excellent equity vs his total UTG PFR range when ur going to a flop OOP vs an unknown opponent, by 3betting ur only folding out worse hands and getting caled by mostly better if not only better/flips

i agree with you about reads after 90 hands you should have som post flop read

Well if he actually has a tight range for calling a 3 bet this large which is like QQ, KK, AA, AK then sure you don't want to isolate that part of his range. However, the reason why I said to make a judgment based on reads in the past 92 hands is that some people will continue with hands like TT, JJ, AQ and even AJs/ATs etc because they just arn't folding their tight range much to 3 bets. QQ is a favourite against this range so we should push the equity even if its thin. We need to have taken a look at what this player has done in the last 92 hands to come to a determination on what he is actually doing. There are just so many people who don't like to fold to 3 bets now because people are bluff 3 betting a lot - however the range of what is going to call is going to depend on how much the OP has been 3 betting too. I know if someone is getting out of line I call with a wider range.

Well if he actually has a tight range for calling a 3 bet this large which is like QQ, KK, AA, AK then sure you don't want to isolate that part of his range. However, the reason why I said to make a judgment based on reads in the past 92 hands is that some people will continue with hands like TT, JJ, AQ and even AJs/ATs etc because they just arn't folding their tight range much to 3 bets. QQ is a favourite against this range so we should push the equity even if its thin. We need to have taken a look at what this player has done in the last 92 hands to come to a determination on what he is actually doing. There are just so many people who don't like to fold to 3 bets now because people are bluff 3 betting a lot - however the range of what is going to call is going to depend on how much the OP has been 3 betting too. I know if someone is getting out of line I call with a wider range.

bolded; Whould you say this is true even if we would have a massive +ev situation postflop if we just call?

Zankaa if the BTN is going to continue with all the range he had preflop (this is just theory based now as I said we want reads on what his ranges are etc if he has a super tight 3 bet calling range then we should flat) then 3 betting this player himself would make sense since we are increasing the pot where we are the favourite... he would have the same hands on the flop if we 3 bet or didn't 3 bet (which is why we should 3 bet if he continues with his 8% raising range or folds out the bottom part of it like QT, KT etc for like a 6% range but flat if he is going to fold down to JJ+ and AK) and since he is going to miss with some of those hands getting more money in the pot now is beneficial.

UTG raiser with no money behind may result in more ev... but I am not sure how much extra value we are going to get with him in the pot though if we flat. I am going to assume the UTG player probably isn't going to be folding if he hits any draw/pair or anything. So either we bet, UTG shoves, the BTN folds hands that may have otherwise continued or calls the shove, or we check UTG checks, BTN bets, we call, UTG shoves, BTN calls or reshoves... not great situations.

Conclusion: I would 3 bet this preflop if I had a read that the BTN calls 3 bets with the top 5% of hands or more (we have about a 10% equity edge against a range like that, and if he is calling with say 7% we have an extremely high equity edge - around 20%) and I would flat if I had a read that the BTN continues with 4% or less of his range since then it starts getting too thin (abnout 2.6% edge) because when we factor in the rake we might not be making any money against such a tight range. Of course, we just have to make a good guess based on what we have seen in 92 hands. With no reads I would also flat but I would almost always have some reads here after 92 hands.

BTW If the BTN is just a spaz donk which is more likely than it should be, I would probably flat with the intention of letting him spaz out post flop. If he has some defined ranges we should make a decision based on those ranges.