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So this I found pretty brutal. Villain is 11/8 over 40 hands or so. Preflop, I expect him to call with AJ+, 66+, KJs+, maybe KQo. Thinking that it's hard to make kings and that he could call with worse, plus I wouldn't mind picking up the pot.

For the turn, I'd probably bet a similar size on something blank, but the J gave me pretty much the nuts, since now I beat every assorted king he may call with. KJ is pretty unlikely but not impossible.

The river is just... I have no idea! The thing that struck my mind was "what could possibly call here that I beat", only if he goes on spew with something below JJ, which, well, it leaves kx, aa, qq, jx for split.

Poker Stars $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1764273
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BTN: $1.03
SB: $1.95
BB: $1.40
Hero (UTG): $2.00
MP: $3.53
CO: $2.00

Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero is UTG with J J
Hero raises to $0.06, 1 fold, CO calls $0.06, 3 folds

Flop: ($0.15) 7 K K (2 players)
Hero bets $0.10, CO calls $0.10

Turn: ($0.35) J (2 players)
Hero bets $0.22, CO calls $0.22

River: ($0.79) K (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $0.76, Hero ??

66 is not in an 11% calling range I dont think.

77,88,99,TT > hands that might bet the river that you beat from 11% - some poss not by a nit.

AA,QQ,KQ,KJ,KT > hands from 11% that you dont beat.

An 11/8 would probably 3bet AKs, QQ and AA in this spot preflop, so I am not super concern about those hands.

On the flop, his calling range would look something like that I guess : half the combos of AKo(probably raise sometimes pre with it), KQ, KJs, half the combos of KJo (as I think a 11/8 will not play this all the time), any PP 77-TT, QJ JT, and AQ, AJ, AT. He would even maybe raise some monster on this flop. Not sure if this is 100% correct, but still.

OTT, it's hard to know how vilain would play the above range, but IMO he would raise some of the AKo, KQ, and maybe boats half the time. He would call boats the other half and FDs.

It would be nice to know how aggro this guy is. We loose to 7 combos (2 combos AKo, KQ, 3combos of KQ, and the only combo of KJo left). The problem I see here with calling is that we tie with a bunch of missed FDs. The only busted FDs we beat are AQ AT, so only 2 combos. How often will he turn low PP into a bluff here knowing that most people don't fold full houses?

I think I fold because the times we catch him bluffing+the times we tie don't compensate for the times we loose. Don't really know how I should calculate this but it's the feeling I have.

66 is not in an 11% calling range I dont think.

I think you may be reading into stats a bit much with a bit to few hands. If he picks up aces next round and bets them, he's suddenly a 13.5/10, do it twice and he's a 15.5/13.

I think I fold because the times we catch him bluffing+the times we tie don't compensate for the times we loose. Don't really know how I should calculate this but it's the feeling I have.

Yea, I ended up folding with similar reasoning, but not as elaborate on the ranges. Problem is it may be a perfect spot for a fish to just ship in all the chips with ace-high as a bluff (or for value, I guess), since quads are hard to make and scary to face.

never folding here as he probably 3bets QQ+/AK pre.

If he has a K then so be it, probably has any pp

He has more combos you beat than combos that beat you here. You're underrepresenting your hand a lot when you check the river.
Though I would prefer to bet the river here because he has alot of pp in his range where he would call a bet and not bet if checked to.

never folding here as he probably 3bets QQ+/AK pre.

If he has a K then so be it, probably has any pp

He has more combos you beat than combos that beat you here. You're underrepresenting your hand a lot when you check the river.
Though I would prefer to bet the river here because he has alot of pp in his range where he would call a bet and not bet if checked to.

I agree there are more combos we beat here, but would vilain barrel them after we check? In my opinion, the combos we beat OTR are ATs and AQs, 3 combos of 77, and 6 combos each of 88-TT. So 23 combos in total. Do you guys agree with this range?

So we are beat by 7 combos, tie with 3 and he can have 23 combos that we beat. We need to figure out how many of those 23 combos he needs to bet for us to break even and figure if he would bet that number of combos more or less often. My math sucks, but I arrives at ~5 combos. So if he bets 5 combos or more that we beat, we should call, if not, we should fold. So maybe this is a call after all....

I'd bet bigger ott, their broadway picked up equity on the J, otr x/c is good if you think they bluff missed diamonds, but against these guys I'd bet small-ish

River seems like a very trivial valuebet at 2NL. Villain can easily have a boat and your boat is probably bigger then his boat. Worrying about quads is a bit silly because

-very few combos
-big chance he would raise either flop or turn with trips, so can be heavily discounted.

QQ is a possibility I guess, but such a tiny part of his range.

As played, don't fold please.


Also, betsizing is too small at flop/turn. At 2NL I'd just full pot for value with strong hands, since few will notice (or care) about the difference