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Flop decision

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nienie23

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454 posts
Joined 11/2009

20 hands on villain, no read. Played a few hands so it's hard to say but did not seem in the extremes, i.e. not a nit nor loose.

Poker Stars $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1761081
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Hero (SB): $13.16
BB: $5.38
UTG: $12.20
MP: $5.31
CO: $6.33
BTN: $3.97

Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is SB with A Diamond J Spade
1 fold, MP raises to $0.20, 2 folds, Hero raises to $0.65, 1 fold, MP calls $0.45

Flop: ($1.35) T Heart 9 Spade Q Spade (2 players)
Hero bets $1.10, MP raises to $2.50, Hero ??????

The question is what do I do next, not should I have folded pre.
To his raise,
I can fold
I can call but we are all in on the turn.
I can shove but I doubt villain folds to a shove.

Posted about 1 year ago

Stampfer

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88 posts
Joined 02/2012

Its a fold IMO, your basically drawing dead to a K, if an A come hes most likely made two pair AQ or maybe A10, or he has a set just QQs 10s Worst you can hope for is AKs in which case your still beat I dont think he's ever doing this with worse, And as you say its all going in on the turn.

Posted about 1 year ago

MI5 Mark

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1731 posts
Joined 06/2011

You need to do some work in pokerstove to see how your hand and this board does against his range, how are you doing against a bare FD, set, AQ, KQ, etc. Then you will know the answer

Posted about 1 year ago

iluv68

Avatar for iluv68

657 posts
Joined 03/2011

We should never call given stack sizes, and the only reason we want to stay in the pot is to spike our straight (so we want to see two cards not just one).

EV (fold) = 0 by definition

Board: Th 9s Qs
Hand 0: 28.892% { AdJs }
Hand 1: 71.108% { QQ, TT-99, AQs, AsTs, KJs, Q9s+, JTs, T9s, AQo, KJo, QTo-Q9o }

EV (shove) = (.289[our equity])*($10.62[total pot]) - (.711[villain's equity])*($3.56[what we still have to risk]) = $0.54

So shoving vs this calling range with no fold equity is profitable, but is very high variance. Even if you take out, AQ, ATs, JTs, QJs our equity stays close to the same and is still profitable

Posted about 1 year ago

Deets

Avatar for Deets

540 posts
Joined 11/2010

The EV calc isn't right, you're mixing up a couple of the methods. You can't let us win our equity in the whole pot including our bet while only allowing us just to lose villain's equity from our bet. We trade our entire bet for our share in the total pot.

Posted about 1 year ago

bosko

Avatar for bosko

341 posts
Joined 05/2010

Yep, should be (making the assumptions that you clearly intend to make re him never folding etc.):

EV(shove) = (.289 *$7.06 - .711*$3.56) = -$0.49

Posted about 1 year ago

iluv68

Avatar for iluv68

657 posts
Joined 03/2011

Yep, should be (making the assumptions that you clearly intend to make re him never folding etc.):

EV(shove) = (.289 *$7.06 - .711*$3.56) = -$0.49



Agreed! Given the change in EV, it's a fold!!!

Posted about 1 year ago

orange

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1112 posts
Joined 02/2008

Fold the flop. he has too many value hands and we have zero FE given the SPR.

Posted about 1 year ago

Frank959

Avatar for Frank959

214 posts
Joined 02/2012

I'm just curious but why are you 3 betting with AJ off out of position? IMO I don't think AJ is a good enough hand to 3 bet with out of position, especially if you aren't 100% sure what your opponents tendencies are. Why not just call and see a flop??? Also this is a very draw heavy board, and usually good players will check-raise you here. A check might have been better for pot control.

Posted about 1 year ago




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