Micro Stakes Online NL Poker Forums

Hey all, Been rather inactive recently due to in real life events, But an intresting one to get me back into the swing of things

Villian is a 30/17 over a small sample, seemed aggressive.

Poker Stars $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players - View hand 1750110
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

MP2: $9.09
CO: $9.22
BTN: $4.11
SB: $10.14
BB: $4.00
UTG: $10.00
Hero (UTG+1): $23.58
MP1: $4.13

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is UTG+1 with Q Q
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.35, 1 fold, MP2 calls $0.35, 2 folds, SB calls $0.30, 1 fold

Flop: ($1.15) 7 J Q (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.82, MP2 folds, SB calls $0.82

Turn: ($2.79) 8 (2 players)
SB bets $8.97 all in, Hero ????????

Temptation to call was fairly agonizing, as i felt my club outs were good, plus the chance of boating up. I just dislike the price very much

I think I'm calling. His overbet here is super polarized (which doesn't make it a call, it just means there will be a percentage that you're beating) - the way I see it, you may have a redraw to the flush (not known if he has a better flush or not) + a redraw to the full house... for some weird reason, I'm wanting to think he's more likely to have the straight than the flush, but I have absolutely no basis for that opinion.

easy fold

. for some weird reason, I'm wanting to think he's more likely to have the straight than the flush,.

and you want to call ? easy fold

Let`s see. You are getting 1.3 to 1 so you need at least 43% equity to call and break even excluding rake ( with rake you will lose 9bb from the pot so odds would be 1.21 to 1 and will need 45% equity to break even).

If we only give villain a range of some Ax clubs (6), 1/3 T9o (4), 1/2 T9s (2), you get only 28% equity resulting into folding :

Board: 8c 7c Jc Qd
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 27.841% 27.84% 00.00% 147 0.00 { QcQh }
Hand 1: 72.159% 72.16% 00.00% 381 0.00 { AcKc, AcTc, Ac9c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Tc9c, Td9d, Tc9d, Td9c, Th9c, Ts9c }

Now let`s start widening his shove range to see where we can call. If we add let`s say 4 combos with A like AQo and AJo and 1 combo of JJ we get about break even point where we can call and anything wider becomes +EV call:

Board: 8c 7c Jc Qd
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.652% 44.65% 00.00% 334 0.00 { QcQh }
Hand 1: 55.348% 55.35% 00.00% 414 0.00 { JhJs, AcKc, AcTc, Ac9c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Tc9c, Td9d, AcQs, AcJd, AcJh, AcJs, Tc9d, Td9c, Th9c, Ts9c }

You get about break even point if he shoves 4 combos of sets instead of AQo and AJo too:

Board: 8c 7c Jc Qd
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.313% 45.31% 00.00% 319 0.00 { QcQh }
Hand 1: 54.688% 54.69% 00.00% 385 0.00 { JdJh, JdJs, JhJs, 7h7s, AcKc, AcTc, Ac9c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Tc9c, Td9d, Tc9d, Td9c, Th9c, Ts9c }


So in conclusion it`s a tough spot and only depends on the villain`s capability to semibluff. (If you spot mistakes in my math fell free to correct).

If he were going for value, he should bet normal size since you probably check back the turn with a lot of your range. So snap call.

His play is sweet if he was overbetting to polarize his range and induce a call. But more than likely he was afraid of getting rivered.

If he were going for value, he should bet normal size since

Bad players don't do what there supposed to do.

Thanks for all the great responces, just wish i knew what the river card would of been