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I actually think he can fold 76, maybe 87 if you shove so I would definitely suggest to try that as it will do wonders for your red line. Then again if the bluff doesn't work we lose our 25 bucks and we could have bought how many Happy Meals with that?

You expect people to fold two pair on a drawheavy flop?

Wow.

Bet flop. You said yourself there was value in it. If he raises you can fold/flat/ship depending on how aggressive/passive the player is. Checking is terrible imo.

Didnt Doyle B once say about checkraising: 'ill cross that bridge when i meet it' or something similar?

You wont be flipping on the turn anymore...

Wow.

Bet flop. You said yourself there was value in it. If he raises you can fold/flat/ship depending on how aggressive/passive the player is. Checking is terrible imo.

Didnt Doyle B once say about checkraising: 'ill cross that bridge when i meet it' or something similar?

You wont be flipping on the turn anymore...

Yeah, he said that.

And it was probably the worst thing he ever wrote.

Nm im not going into a discussion about our favourite DB quotes.

point is. if theres value we should bet, if you're scared hes gonna bluff a lot then call a lot.

Nm im not going into a discussion about our favourite DB quotes.

point is. if theres value we should bet, if you're scared hes gonna bluff a lot then call a lot.

Lol I'm just saying that blindly betting because you have some kind of hand will lead you to a lot of mistakes where you get raised and realize that it's a freaking disaster. Considering what you can/should/have to do against a raise when you bet is (i think) pretty mandatory.

That having been said, not betting because you are scared of getting raised even though betting is the right play is a pretty big mistake alot of players make.

We agree. <3

<3

Maybe but the 2/3 pot bet looks alot like a set.

wouldnt necessarily say so because people do like to bet big when they want folds,
also if he was in the least way competent he'd bet small here with a set because the things you check here are almost drawing dead vs a set so no need to "protect" but you do want them to call

Another thing about the checking:
If you think he bets a lot here with hands you'd fold out with a cbet like broadways, underpais and such but you think he doesnt bet them enough or you'll never be able to call down / never reach showdown enough it makes sense to bet just to realize your equity right now in fold equity

Lots of feedback, that's great! thanks guys

If we were just playing the flop, I'd definitely bet because there is value to be gained. However, the problem is not that he might check-raise, the problem lies on the turn and potentially the river. For example, a 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, T and all hearts are all bad cards, J and Q could make him a set and could also produce gut shots. So when I bet flop, I'm building a bigger pot whereas I'm going to have trouble playing turn and river. More or less it's value owning myself later on and again, I have hardly any outs.

If we go for bet bet bet until check raised strategy. He's loose passive. So I imagine the thing he's going to do is just call when I bet or just bet when I check and he's sitting there with the nuts and in position and I got no idea where I stand. So if we really wanted to stick with our AA for some reason, shoving flop or bet flop shove turn on any card would be lines I'd consider and hope for the best

More or less it's value owning myself later on and again,

That would only be true if he was also bluffing with the right frequencies on those cards you cant vbet on which would make you never go to SD good (as in you having to chf loads of turns and rivers)

What are the stacks?

Assuming 100bbs: If he's a nut peddling regular we would be betting this with our air to get him to fold so there's no reason not to bet our big overpair, and if he folds, great - we've cashed in on the value we created by 3-betting. He could easily have called with a pocket pair to setmine and flopped an oesd or backdoor heart draw. We can always slow down if he calls, especially if the turn comes a heart or another straight card, or he shows suspicious strength. He could have a set and we could still hit runner runner and win.

I don't think this is that bad of a flop texture btw. Obviously it depends on what he's calling 3-bets with, but calling with suited connectors isn't that common in my experience so straights are not that much of his range. Some people habitually call middle pairs to setmine in which case he has more pairs which missed than pairs which hit, so although it's not ideal we should still bet and then proceed with caution.

I don't think a check/raise is a problem at all btw. If he is a nut peddling regular and check/raises you fold and if he is an aggro bluff monkey and he check/raises you call or shove. That's no reason to give him a free card on a drawy flop. Flops I would be worried about a checkraise on are very dry flops or paired flops where there's a real danger of getting bluffed off the best hand.

, the problem lies on the turn and potentially the river. For example, a 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, T and all hearts are all bad cards, J and Q could make him a set and could also produce gut shots.

This reasoning would stop me check-raising against a good player in this spot. It wouldn't stop me betting the flop, though, particularly against a loose-passive who's going to be pretty honest about how strong he is. There's nothing wrong with betting or calling expecting to fold to aggression or to not continue any further.

Everyone'll have an opinion on this but OP, what range do you think villain gets here with? What does he raise/call/fold to cbet and what does he bet when you check? If your ranges justifiy your x/f then you either have the right read or you need to adjust it.

If he's doing what I think he's doing his range would look like this: 22+,ATs+,KJs+,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,54s,43s,32s,AQo+,T9o,98o,87o,76o,65o,54o,43o,32o

His equity with this range on 6 7 8 = 41.5% against my pocket aces. Some analysis (hope I'm doing this right! )

K Q J villain has 33% equity
9 T J villain has 32% equity
8 7 8 villain has 21.5% equity
K Q J villain has 17.5% equity
Q 8 3 villain has 16% equity.

Basically any heart on the turn will improve the equity of his range if he just didn't fold anything to a cbet. On nearly every turn he still has 38% equity or better. If both turn and river came 2 and 3 he still has 40% equity against my AA.

Okay so why wouldn't I be happy about cbetting and just fold when I get raised? because I'll be making more mistakes versus him than he's going to make in the hand and he's not always going to raise, he may just call all day. Example. turn is a 9 and we don't know that he has JJ. We check because we don't like to barrel given that he's been sticky. Now he bets because he feels that his JJ is worthy of betting. We may be folding the best hand. So it's better to barrel. But now we could be firing with the worst hand. It's just a crappy situation so that's why I'm saying that if we shove flop we can potentially realise our equity better and make no mistakes on later streets.

Anyway this is why I essentially folded on the flop but having analysed it a bit more, I'm liking a shove better now and I get it in 60/40 versus what I think of his range.

I wouldnt expect the guy to call all those SCs and offsuit connectors to your 3b pre, unless he folds like under 40% to 3bets ip

His fold to 3bet is 50%