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FIrst session with villain who, after 62 hands, has 42% VPIP

Poker Stars $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1744633
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

CO: $4.11
BTN: $13.50
SB: $0.98
BB: $7.32
Hero (UTG): $14.66
MP: $5.00

Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is UTG with A A
Hero raises to $0.20, 1 fold, CO calls $0.20, BTN calls $0.20, SB calls $0.18, 1 fold

Flop: ($0.85) K J J (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.60, CO folds, BTN calls $0.60, SB raises to $0.78 all in, Hero calls $0.18, BTN calls $0.18

Turn: ($3.19) 2 (3 players - 1 is all in)
Hero bets $2, BTN calls $2

River: ($7.19) 3 (3 players - 1 is all in)
[color=red]Hero ???????

Villain is a fish but not a calling station. After getting called on the flop and then on the turn, I am sure villain has a strong hand. I am expecting villain to raise the river so my question is what ammount to bet. I will put the results after getting a few answers.

If he's a fish he's gonna get to the river with every Kx, that he called with preflop (you didn't provide stats so I have no idea how loose he is), also every gutter and all the QT combos, so I think he's either not a fish or your statement that he gets to the river with only strong hands is false. Unless you consider K3s a strong hand or something like that.

You say you're expecting villain to raise the river, why is that? Why do you still wanna bet the river if you're so sure about what's gonna happen? Is it because you're so sure he's gonna bluffraise very often with his missed straight draws or are you just feeling generous?

To be honest I would probably check/call here, just because there are a million combos of missed gutters and openenders and most fish like bluffing on the river when checked to. Sure we might lose some value vs Kx, but depending on how aggro he is, he might bet some of those anyway, unlikely but still. It would also suck to get raised, because we probably have to fold and we get no reads.

Villain is a fish but not a calling station. After getting called on the flop and then on the turn, I am sure villain has a strong hand. I am expecting villain to raise the river so my question is what ammount to bet. I will put the results after getting a few answers.

If you are expecting villain to raise you, then why do you want to bet in the first place? Do you think he's ever raising a worse hand OTR?

bet/fold 4$

bet/fold 4$

Why do you think bet folding is better, given the limited information provided?

The key to this hand is ask what villain would do with Kx. Is he calling a with Kx or folding. Given this is 5NL I have a hard time believing villain won't call a river bet with Kx. I would definitely b/f here.

I think c/c is atrocious here because there are more combos of Kx then open enders and you have 2 blockers to a lot of the GSs he can have. We know he is for sure calling turn with Kx but it is less certain he would call turn with GS. There are way more hands with SD value then complete air in his range.

If you are betting the turn, why wouldnt you bet the river? I think bet/fold around 4 is fine to get called by a K. He will never raise you with a K and when we check he is never betting a K. Also he might reraise a J on the flop but never a K which makes me think we can get value from a K in this spot.

Why do you think bet folding is better, given the limited information provided?

It`s 5NL, guy played 42% VPIP, he is most likely passive so I don`t think we gain more by checking to snap something like possible (but in general unlikely) 2.5$ bluff attempt or thin vbet from Kx, then bet/fold.

I like b/f here too and don't like ch/c really at all. How much I bet would depend on what I think of his weak-passive tendencies. Some weaker players are just huge stations whereas others actually tend to get super weak-tight OTR. Against the stations (which I assume for most at this level) I think b/f around $4 is good but against someone who I think will have a tendency to be weak tight OTR, I would be more likely to underbet something like $2-2.50. I'm not really ever concerned about getting bluffed by taking this line especially with a player already allin.

This is really easy. Bet the max amount that you think villain will call with a range that you have more than 50% equity against. You bet too small on the turn.

If you don't expect villain to fold a K on the river then it's easy jam (most 42VIPIP players doesn't fold TP even if you overbet). Betting small so you can b/f is non-sense if you have over 50% equity vs his calling range putting more money in = higher EV. Don't c/c in these spots since by doing that you are guaranteed to not get value from the marginal part of his range and pay off 100% of his range that beats you.

Bet all your AAs, and you will come up +EV over the long run. K2, K3 are probably not worth a 4bb bet before the flop so your only worries are Jx hands.

You say you're expecting villain to raise the river, why is that? Why do you still wanna bet the river if you're so sure about what's gonna happen? Is it because you're so sure he's gonna bluffraise very often with his missed straight draws or are you just feeling generous?

What happens is that some players play a certain way and suddenly, their play changes completely. I don't recall exactly why I thought this during that hand but let me give you an example.

Folded to me on CO, I raise my JJ. Nitty boy on SB insta 3 bets and I call. I thought: AA.
Flop A J X, nitty boy insta check call. I thought: wow, he slow plays top set
Turn A, hey, he has quads

But... I don't take my gut instinct too much into consideration. I prefer to play against his range. We ended up all in and he showed...... yep, quads.

In our hand, I had the same gut feeling. But I just put him on a range of QT, Jx and Kx and played according to this.

bet/fold 4$

This is really easy. Bet the max amount that you think villain will call with a range that you have more than 50% equity against. You bet too small on the turn.

If you don't expect villain to fold a K on the river then it's easy jam (most 42VIPIP players doesn't fold TP even if you overbet). Betting small so you can b/f is non-sense if you have over 50% equity vs his calling range putting more money in = higher EV. Don't c/c in these spots since by doing that you are guaranteed to not get value from the marginal part of his range and pay off 100% of his range that beats you.

Villain is passive, i.e. he invests money only when he has something. He folds his QT on the river, Calls his Kx and raises his Jx. The thing I don't want to do on the river is showing weakness by checking or betting too small. He might think I don't have much and play the river aggressively. The other thing I don't want to do is shove. If I put villain on QT, any Kx and any Jx, I have 60% equity. I don't think blindly shoving is a +EV thing to do. Judgment has to be used too. So my best option is to figure out a good amount to bet that will say to villain that I mean business. And if I get raised, then I'll know 100% I am beaten. If I get called, what's left of his stack that I would have gotten with a shove but didn't, I'll get later.

Here is the hand.

Poker Stars $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1744633
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

CO: $4.11
BTN: $13.50
SB: $0.98
BB: $7.32
Hero (UTG): $14.66
MP: $5.00

Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is UTG with A A
Hero raises to $0.20, 1 fold, CO calls $0.20, BTN calls $0.20, SB calls $0.18, 1 fold

Flop: ($0.85) K J J (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.60, CO folds, BTN calls $0.60, SB raises to $0.78 all in, Hero calls $0.18, BTN calls $0.18

Turn: ($3.19) 2 (3 players - 1 is all in)
Hero bets $2, BTN calls $2

River: ($7.19) 3 (3 players - 1 is all in)
Hero bets $4, BTN raises to $8, Hero folds

Final Pot: $15.19
BTN shows K J (a full house, Jacks full of Kings)
SB shows K 5 (two pair, Kings and Jacks)
BTN wins $11.50
BTN wins $3.06
(Rake: $0.63)

If you put him on any Kx, any Jx, and QT then your EV is maximized by shoving as blah says. You have 58% equity vs a calling range of Kx and Jx.

Simplifying the math for a second, let's say the pot is $100 and there are $100 left in effective stacks and you have 60% equity vs a calling range.

If you shove you win $100(pot) + $100(villains call) and if you lose you are down $100(hero's shove).

EV Shove = ($200 * 0.6) - ($100 * 0,4) = $80

Now let's say you bet $50, folding to a raise the 40% of the time villain has Jx. So you win $100 + $50 and lose $50

EV Half Pot Bet-Fold = ($150 * 0.6) - ($50 * 0.4) = $70