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just sat down at tbl so had no stats on villain, turned out to have fairly reggish stats over 50 hands tho, if they were a fish cud have taken this line with aces but not a reg, obv turn call is fine absolutely zero reason to shove either way ahead or way behind, makes sense with 88 but that wudnt 3 bet pre, only hand i can think of is kx of spades that decided to check back for some reason

Poker Stars $50.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1726804
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BTN: $50.85 - VPIP: 24, PFR: 22, 3B: 20, AF: 5.0, Hands: 50
SB: $50.00 - VPIP: 24, PFR: 20, 3B: 7, AF: 2.2, Hands: 539
BB: $28.91 - VPIP: 55, PFR: 36, 3B: 0, AF: 0.5, Hands: 11
Hero (UTG): $50.00
MP: $75.81 - VPIP: 18, PFR: 15, 3B: 4, AF: 9.7, Hands: 477
CO: $77.39 - VPIP: 33, PFR: 0, 3B: 0, AF: Infinity, Hands: 9

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is UTG with K A
Hero raises to $1.50, 2 folds, BTN raises to $4.50, 2 folds, Hero calls $3

Flop: ($9.75) Q 4 K (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn: ($9.75) 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $6.50, BTN raises to $16.50, Hero calls $10

River: ($42.75) 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $29.85,

This is a flopped set very often. I hate folding in these spots where I'm near the top of my range and I'm also capped because it's so exploitable but regs at 50nl just don't take that line as a bluff because they all suck, so you're definitely getting towned. If you call here you're going to be good waaaay less than the 30% you need.

If you knew he was a standardish reg at the time of this hand, then absolutely nothing makes sense for value. That said, people don't bluff in these spots. So he would somehow have a nonsensical value hand here that took a retarded line. But when you have no information on him at all, I don't mind a call. I would have folded preflop though.

Ive seen bad regs play single underpairs like this protecting against a single spade, so I defo just call river and take a note.

With that said, 'usually' whenever I see a weird line...it's some kind of misplayed nuts.

4b/c pre. if you dont want to for any reason as played b/f turn

Ive seen bad regs play single underpairs like this protecting against a single spade, so I defo just call river and take a note.

With that said, 'usually' whenever I see a weird line...it's some kind of misplayed nuts.

but we don't really have any single spade hands in our perceived range that aren't made hands as well (like what we have).

but we don't really have any single spade hands in our perceived range that aren't made hands as well (like what we have).

That's prob true. But just looking over a couple of the examples in my DB that I meant there were few single card draws that weren't also made hands in my range either, so Im assuming he was playing the board more than my range.

Obviously it would be a mistake to apply that logic to everyone but I think vs. bad regs it's mostly true. (though, we don't know this guy is bad...and thats not my only reason for calling)

Oh man ya I didn't even see that we called oop. Why aren't we 4betting this?

4b/c pre. if you dont want to for any reason as played b/f turn

hate both plays, against an unknown stacking off pre here is noway the most plus EV play, if he's a reg, AK does well against villains very very polarized 3 betting range, but very badly against his 3 bet stacking off range, nearly prefer 4 bet folding but that seems just as awful, as for bet folding the turn he'd have to have a set pretty much 100% of the time to make that minus EV when we have immediate odds of 3.3 to 1 and the NFD, if he had a set we'd b like 6/1 to hit so wud only then be a fold, his set combos since he pretty much never has 88 44 or 33 are only 4 combos, 3 of QQ and one combo of KK

Oh man ya I didn't even see that we called oop. Why aren't we 4betting this?

Is 4bet/get it in with AK when you open UTG standard at 50nl?

hate both plays, against an unknown stacking off pre here is noway the most plus EV play, if he's a reg, AK does well against villains very very polarized 3 betting range, but very badly against his 3 bet stacking off range, nearly prefer 4 bet folding but that seems just as awful, as for bet folding the turn he'd have to have a set pretty much 100% of the time to make that minus EV when we have immediate odds of 3.3 to 1 and the NFD, if he had a set we'd b like 6/1 to hit so wud only then be a fold, his set combos since he pretty much never has 88 44 or 33 are only 4 combos, 3 of QQ and one combo of KK

What makes you think his 3b range is polarized? And even if it is...how can you be sure his 3b contains worse Ax/Kx? He could be polarizing it with other types of bluff hands.

That said, it's way more +ev to 4bet because of the exact reason you posted this hand...when you flat oop and flop one of the best possible boards AK can hope for you have no idea wtf to do.

If the SPR was lower, it would be easy to get it in.

I see lots of regs do this, but its pure FPS, especially vs. an unknown.

You could make good arguments for flatting oop if you had good information on his preflop ranges and postflop tendencies but you don't, so don't get tricky imo.

Oh man ya I didn't even see that we called oop. Why aren't we 4betting this?

against an unknown who turned about to be a reg, 4 bet calling is decent if villain is sometimes bluffing which we have no way of knowing with no history yet, but we are in bad shape against their value range here, against an unknown folding is better here than stacking off, it is impossible to avoid calling 3 bets oop all the time, i do it as little as possible but is for sure the most plus EV play here

against an unknown who turned about to be a reg, 4 bet calling is decent if villain is sometimes bluffing which we have no way of knowing with no history yet, but we are in bad shape against their value range here, against an unknown folding is better here than stacking off, it is impossible to avoid calling 3 bets oop all the time, i do it as little as possible but is for sure the most plus EV play here

You aren't in bad shape at all vs. their value 3b range. That's one of the whole reasons we play AK aggressively...we max FE and get him to fold his equity share and when called we have good equity.

Calling oop is super -ev cause he can just bet any board you don't hit (>50% of boards) and you fold...bink he makes profit.

I NEVER flat oop unless I have a very good reason to do so, cause it's in general a loooooooosing proposition.

Any good reason you could come up with for doing it here is pretty much null, because you don't have any relevant info on this guy.

What makes you think his 3b range is polarized?

is an assumption if he's a reg whether bad or good is likely, game of incomplete information

And even if it is...how can you be sure his 3b contains worse Ax/Kx? He could be polarizing it with other types of bluff hands.

im not sure, but it does well against his whole range here not just Ax Kx which it crushes, the times i get bluffed is more than offset by the postflop equity of AK which ppl underestimate, is not like I'm check folding when i miss, my range is still very strong is unlikely i get bluffed often in these positions, if i do its probably phil ivey, but i think RaiseOnce is his screename on Stars, this guys was different

That said, it's way more +ev to 4bet because of the exact reason you posted this hand...when you flat oop and flop one of the best possible boards AK can hope for you have no idea wtf to do

granted it makes the hand harder to play but sometimes thats unavoidable, in a vacuum which this is, is all about the most plus EV play. so u think i got bluffed here?

If the SPR was lower, it would be easy to get it in.

agreed

I see lots of regs do this, but its pure FPS, especially vs. an unknown.

not FPS....EV

You aren't in bad shape at all vs. their value 3b range. That's one of the whole reasons we play AK aggressively...we max FE and get him to fold his equity share and when called we have good equity.

Calling oop is super -ev cause he can just bet any board you don't hit (>50% of boards) and you fold...bink he makes profit.

I NEVER flat oop unless I have a very good reason to do so, cause it's in general a loooooooosing proposition.

Any good reason you could come up with for doing it here is pretty much null, because you don't have any relevant info on this guy.

I think calling here is better than 4bet get-it-in. Value ranges vs. UTG opens are often super tight, like KK/AA, sometimes QQ, sometimes AK. And a lot of people will flat all of those hands a decent % of the time. So we really are usually crushed when we end up getting it in. It's a lot different than 4bet get it in CO vs. BTN.

With his 3bet sizing we are getting 2-1 immediate. We flop TP 1/3 the time. Sometimes we get a bet or two out of his bluffs, sometimes we lose to a better hand when we do make TP, and sometimes we get some value from underpairs, so the post flop EV is probably close to neutral or slightly +EV. So I don't think calling is super -EV. I think it is better than 4bet/stack-off with no information.

I would just fold though.