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Would this be a sick river call?

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SavingForBenz

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648 posts
Joined 12/2011

Ongame Network $0.10/$0.20 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1720816
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

MP: $22.19
CO: $20.00
BTN: $20.00
SB: $20.40
BB: $33.97
Hero (UTG): $19.90

CO posts a big blind ($0.20)

Pre Flop: ($0.50) Hero is UTG with A Diamond 5 Diamond
Hero raises to $0.80, 4 folds, BB calls $0.60

Flop: ($1.90) Q Heart Q Diamond 8 Spade (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.25, BB calls $1.25

Turn: ($4.40) 8 Club (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: ($4.40) 7 Spade (2 players)
BB bets $2.50, Hero ??

I think this river is a fold, because I can't imagine that he has many bluffs in his range after c/c flop?

What do you guys think?

He's 21/17 over 178 hands. 5%3B.

He seems like a fairly solid winning reg, who hasn't been out of line. After c/c flop, I think his range is 99-JJ or KQ, I wouldn't expect to see many 8s, unless he has 88. I can't think anything that might check call, that is losing that would bet river?

I think during the session, I was sure but now I've thought about it, I'm leaning towards this always being for value. But I'd like some second opinions please.

Posted about 1 year ago

fabi2266

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191 posts
Joined 09/2010

You can probably call this up vs many many types of players and be profitable in the long run.
Villain could have 66s and worse PPs or its a split or might bluff a busted gutshot with J10/ 109s...
Enough combos that you beat to make this call I think!

Posted about 1 year ago

geneius

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27 posts
Joined 03/2009

How do you think he perceives you? What's you're VPIP/PFR? I ask because I notice you're raising A5s UTG, and I think your decision depends largely on what he thinks you're utg range is here as it's close. If he's thinking about the hand anyway which I assume he is.

Posted about 1 year ago

jaburuw

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20 posts
Joined 02/2012

A lot of regs like to float/raise bluff this kind of flop.
Have you seen he floating? If so, does he wait for a scare card to come?
Does he wait your check on the turn to bluff?

I think that on the turn he is either slowplaying a big hand or waiting to see if you check.
It depends on your notes on him.

Anyway, I would call. First for information. Second, he might as well be bluffing.

Posted about 1 year ago

Grindcore

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2376 posts
Joined 11/2008

Calling here requires him to have leaks. He seems reasonable and straight forward from stats. I'd fold readless, though it's probably somewhat close at nl20. The lower the stakes the more you should call here.

Posted about 1 year ago

xsAir

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73 posts
Joined 03/2012

The only thing we beat here is a bluff. In order for this call to be profitable you need to be right about 1/3 of the time. He probably has at least something. I would give credit unless I had some other read.

Too much calling is one of the biggest leaks at the microstakes, so it is unprofitable to bluff in most situations, and his stats indicate at least some level of competency.

This isn't much to go on but I think it's enough to assume this is a bad spot to call.

Posted about 1 year ago

SavingForBenz

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648 posts
Joined 12/2011

Calling here requires him to have leaks. He seems reasonable and straight forward from stats. I'd fold readless, though it's probably somewhat close at nl20. The lower the stakes the more you should call here.



I really wanted to raise here too. I was hoping someone else came up with the idea. But perhaps it's lucky I didn't. Does he have too much Qx in his range?

Posted about 1 year ago

Grindcore

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2376 posts
Joined 11/2008

What valuebets are you trying to make him fold exactly?

Posted about 1 year ago

SavingForBenz

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648 posts
Joined 12/2011

What valuebets are you trying to make him fold exactly?


99-JJ?

Posted about 1 year ago

Grindcore

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2376 posts
Joined 11/2008

He might not fold those. Run an EV calculation on it, will be good practice.

Posted about 1 year ago

jaburuw

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20 posts
Joined 02/2012

Calling here requires him to have leaks. He seems reasonable and straight forward from stats. I'd fold readless, though it's probably somewhat close at nl20. The lower the stakes the more you should call here.



Don´t you think it worth calling to find out? Especially if he is a regular that is always playing ? Can´t that be a leak?

Posted about 1 year ago

Grindcore

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2376 posts
Joined 11/2008

Don´t you think it worth calling to find out? Especially if he is a regular that is always playing ? Can´t that be a leak?



If he's a regular that's always playing, why do we have so few hands on him? Also, the playerpool at micros is much larger than at higher stakes so even if he plays all the time you might not run into him as often.

Posted about 1 year ago

SavingForBenz

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648 posts
Joined 12/2011

If he's a regular that's always playing, why do we have so few hands on him? Also, the playerpool at micros is much larger than at higher stakes so even if he plays all the time you might not run into him as often.



I'm not advocated his reply or anything. But I'm new to ongame. Starting out at the bottom and working up fingers crossed. So I basically don't have any hands on anyone.

Posted about 1 year ago

Kazm

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362 posts
Joined 12/2009

Calling here requires him to have leaks. He seems reasonable and straight forward from stats. I'd fold readless, though it's probably somewhat close at nl20. The lower the stakes the more you should call here.



Couldnt he take this line with a counterfeited underpair?

edit: and some broadway he wouldve checkfolded ott? Though most of those wouldve been folded otf probably.

Posted about 1 year ago




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