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It just a nice small bet that will force the opponent to think.

You're forgetting our opponent is a 52/12 over 171 hands and has a thought process that goes like this: I have a top pair of kings I call

You can't bet on the river and simultaneously get called by worse and fold out better hands.

Agreed, but not knowing which one the opponent holds, you can assume it could be either. And you want to think about what will happen in all possible outcomes.

Agreed, but not knowing which one the opponent holds, you can assume it could be either. And you want to think about what will happen in all possible outcomes.

So which one is it?

Isn't this a spot to bet for value otr? Given it is against a UTG range? I dont think villain played the hand like he has top pair, set, over pair, and the flush would have been back door. Hero has the 7c so he is blocking the straight combo a little bit. Villains bet out a lot otr with their completed hands.

Isn't this a spot to bet for value otr? Given it is against a UTG range? I dont think villain played the hand like he has top pair, set, over pair, and the flush would have been back door. Hero has the 7c so he is blocking the straight combo a little bit. Villains bet out a lot otr with their completed hands.

Please mess around with Pokerstove and see if you can come up with a calling range on the river that we have better than 50% equity against.

Please mess around with Pokerstove and see if you can come up with a calling range on the river that we have better than 50% equity against.

QQ-88,AJs+,KJs+,AJo+,KJo+ ?

QQ-88,AJs+,KJs+,AJo+,KJo+ ?

That is a really optimistic range, even against a megafish.

You are being really optimistic if you think villain will call with worse on the river enough.

www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: 3hKs4cTs6s
Equity Win Tie
MP2 24.07% 18.52% 5.56% { Kc7c }
MP3 75.93% 70.37% 5.56% { JJ-TT, 44-33, KTs-K2s, As4s, As3s, KTo-K7o }

Im just throwing out the question.. But we still need to ask ourselves these questions. I think that is how we learn and improve.

Im just throwing out the question.. But we still need to ask ourselves these questions. I think that is how we learn and improve.

Agree.

Board: Ks 4c 3h Ts 6s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.753% 44.81% 01.95% 69 3.00 { 99-66, As9s, Ac8c, As8s, As7s, As6s, As5s, A4s, As3s, As2s, K9s-K2s, 75s+, 63s+, 43s, ATo, Ac6s, Ad6s, Ah6s, As6c, As6d, As6h, A5o, K9o-K2o, 75o+, 64o+ }
Hand 1: 53.247% 51.30% 01.95% 79 3.00 { Kc7c }

Villain openraises a few hands so we can discount the very top of his range. also he would raise lot of he 2pair+ on the turn.
but its a very close spot and you probably not maing a mistake going either way. it depends a bit on how light he will call down. if you think he will call with 4x or 65 which had an oesd and spiked a pair i would make a small bet on the river.

ok and then i have one question. is betting for value defined as betting when we got more than 50% equity against his entire range.
or if we have more than 50% euquity against just his range is not folding (he may call or raise witth it)?

edit: the Ac8c was a missclick but does not really change anything

I like betting turn bigger then checking back this river.

It just a nice small bet that will force the opponent to think. Anytime you give someone a chance to think you give them a chance to second guess themselves and make a mistake.

Someone with a lower pair might see it as a bluff and call making it a value bet. Someone with a K8 might see it has a value bet and fold. This will be plus even more often then it won't in my opinion and your not risking all that much. If you bet higher you will only get called by better and not achieve that much extra fold equity and not get called by worse.

You really need to work on your technical game.

Ok when is it right to trust your hand reading ability enough to make this river value bet? Some times you know when villains got it and when they don't (due to what your hand is and how the hand was played out). Is a poker pro gonna check this river back? Or is this a spot where its not worth it?

ok and then i have one question. is betting for value defined as betting when we got more than 50% equity against his entire range.
or if we have more than 50% euquity against just his range is not folding (he may call or raise with it)?

He actually had A4o! I wonder if he calls this on the river...
Betman, this is a very good question. I don't know the answer, but let me try... Value=a worse hand will call, not necessarily that we have over 50% PE. We have to think of PE and FE together. He's super passive, so there's not too much FE. If there's less FE, then he calls with a wide range, so I do need over 50% PE to make the bet worth it. I think I do have over 50% PE vs his range, so a small bet is profitable. Does this make sense??

@She's got it,

Would a small bet be half pot for you or less ?

@She's got it,

Would a small bet be half pot for you or less ?

Probably 1/3 or something