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Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1697692
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Hero (MP): $40.80
CO: $31.31
BTN: $13.40
SB: $80.01
BB: $26.64
UTG: $17.00

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is MP with A K
UTG raises to $0.75, Hero calls $0.75, 1 fold, BTN raises to $1.50, 2 folds, UTG calls $0.75, Hero raises to $4.50, BTN calls $3, 1 fold

Flop: ($10.85) 3 5 Q (2 players)
Hero bets $10




Villain is unknown 0/0 after 2 hands. utg is pretty nitty and folds a lot to 3bets so i decided to just call with two fishy players in the blinds. this min3bet can be a lot overcall i have seen that they can be relatively wide here not necessarily bluffy but hands like 88 or KTs and he is just half stacked so i decided to 4bet for value and fold in case BTN shoves UTG comes over the top. how would you play the flop? given that Villain has under pot left?

1 Ship preflop. Btn is half stacked, just 4betshove. I dont think UTG would open AA and then CALL a 3bet out of position which might lead to a 3way pot with him oop against 2 players. Thats asking for trouble.

On the flop you beat nothing anymore, except for a stupid AJ. Im not assuming he calls with AJ here and he will never fold a hand that beats you I think. I dont expect him to fold his 88-JJ here, any Qx, any overpair. Also some of our outs arent good prolly, against hands like KQ, AQ. I think IF we get in this spot cfolding is best.

1 Ship preflop. Btn is half stacked, just 4betshove. I dont think UTG would open AA and then CALL a 3bet out of position which might lead to a 3way pot with him oop against 2 players. Thats asking for trouble.

On the flop you beat nothing anymore, except for a stupid AJ. Im not assuming he calls with AJ here and he will never fold a hand that beats you I think. I dont expect him to fold his 88-JJ here, any Qx, any overpair. Also some of our outs arent good prolly, against hands like KQ, AQ. I think IF we get in this spot cfolding is best.

this.

1 Ship preflop. Btn is half stacked, just 4betshove. I dont think UTG would open AA and then CALL a 3bet out of position which might lead to a 3way pot with him oop against 2 players. Thats asking for trouble.

On the flop you beat nothing anymore, except for a stupid AJ. Im not assuming he calls with AJ here and he will never fold a hand that beats you I think. I dont expect him to fold his 88-JJ here, any Qx, any overpair. Also some of our outs arent good prolly, against hands like KQ, AQ. I think IF we get in this spot cfolding is best.

+1

y ok thank you. i agree that just shoving pre is probably best. but can we really still fold with just less than potsize left?

0 = FE*10,85$ + (1-FE)*(0,23*19,85$ - 0.77*9$)

" " " ( 4,5665$ - 6,93$ )

0 = FE*10,85$ + (1-FE) *( -2,365$)

13,215$ FE = 2,365$

FE= 2,356/13,215 = 0,18 = 18%

hope its correct. it says we need just 18% foldequity to be break even.

i assumed that his stack off range is: JJ-TT,AQs,AdJd,KQs,KdTd,QJs,AQo (thats how i got the 23% equity we have against his calling range) which are about 2,9% of hands.

x / (2,9%+x) = 0,18

x= 0,18x + 0,522

0,72x =0,522

x = 0,522/0,72 = 0,725%

that means when i add just AJo in his "min3bet/call 4bet range" and assume he folds that to a shove i show a profit.
because AJo equals 0,9% of hands and when his calling range is 2,9% of hands that means i would have 0,9 / (2,9+0,9) = 0,237 = 23,7% Foldequity. actually i need him to fold even less than that.
(just 0,725% of hands as the equation shows)

if we assume he calls AJ that changes the whole equation though. we will have less foldequity but significantly more equity which probably makes a shove +EV again.

ofcourse all that changes dependend on what he 4bets and what he calls. but is probably a close spot. isn't it better too take the more aggressive line when its close and we just have a potsize bet left?