Micro Stakes Online NL Poker Forums

In my long-term results with all in with KK, my EV is -. Seriously not lying.

Over what sample size?

yes I 4bet for value then gained new information that told me I was crushed. pretty self explanatory really. i tried to avoid situations where im getting all in pre flop with less than 15% equity.

What would have you done if you had 3bet instead of flatting the initial raise? Would you have folded to his 4bet or would you have shoved?

There's absolutely no point whatsoever in anyone trying to argue in these threads, just do the mathematics, it's as simple as that. It's not as though there's any grey zone at all here, you should be able to put your assumptions about ranges into an EV calc and work it out.

What would have you done if you had 3bet instead of flatting the initial raise? Would you have folded to his 4bet or would you have shoved?

I wouldnt 3bet this players UTG open with any hand as I know if I do he only continues with QQ+ and sometimes folds QQ

I feel that micro stakes players on merge are better than on other sites.
I rarely seen players who all in with worse than KK, such as AK and QQ

that doesnt make sense, if people are so "good" then why would they only go all in with KK+ ???
they should know, that people (like you said) arent stacking off with worse then KK, so they should be shipping A LOT of garbage, because they will find a lot of folds...

Im a long term winning player and ive folded KK pre flop on at least a dozen occasions in cash games. last one was yesterday. OK this example is a pretty easy fold granted but it goes to show that you cant live by mantras like "never fold KK pre flop"


Poker Stars $50.00 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players - View hand 1663610
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BB: $50.00
UTG: $62.25
UTG+1: $55.13
UTG+2: $25.38
MP1: $84.11
Hero (MP2): $68.69
CO: $48.50
BTN: $23.31
SB: $18.11

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is MP2 with K K
UTG raises to $1.50, 3 folds, Hero calls $1.50, 1 fold, BTN calls $1.50, SB raises to $6.64, 1 fold, UTG calls $5.14, Hero raises to $15.50, BTN calls $14, SB raises to $18.11, UTG raises to $62.25, 1 fold, BTN calls $7.81 all in

Flop: ($80.73) 3 2 3 (3 players - 1 is all in)

Turn: ($80.73) 8 (3 players - 1 is all in)

River: ($80.73) J (3 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $80.73
UTG shows A A
BTN mucks 5 5
SB mucks Q Q
UTG wins $10.40
UTG wins $68.33
(Rake: $2.00)

you had a bunch of options a few times and they were all ok until you folded

thats a bit of a contradiction isnt it. Surely you shouldnt call with Kings everytime, you should call with kings 99% of the time.

Maybe im the only person who makes the fold that 1% of the time. it wouldnt surpise me as I generally dont do exactly as the rest of the herd does.

even if your numbers are correct, it would not be possible to perfectly identify the 1% of the time you are supposed to fold.

consider that you are usually as far ahead when you fold incorrectly as you are behind when you call incorrectly. i use these words loosely, since i am pretending you knew their actual holdings. the magnitude of your 'error' when you fold is as much as that of your 'error' when you call.

what this means is that on average you are 99x more likely to be making a mistake than you are to be making one, if we use your 99%/1% ratio. do you realize how hard it would be to overcome that?

btw i've folded KK before, i am just saying that your own logic, as stated, is not really persuasive.

if i saw number of replies i looked forward to some joking and flaming but no.... seriously, how can this thread even exist

So let me recap? its a mistake to fold KK 99% of the time, ive folded KK pre flop around 1% of the time over a sample of millions of hands and been correct each time, Yet its still wrong,

We calculate equity vs range and mathmatically we see calling with KK here is a mistake, but im still wrong in folding? (unless im wrong in assuming that getting in with 13% equity when we need 18% is wrong?)

Seems to be me people just want to argue so that they can jusifty calling off their stacks in situations where they either know they are beat but arent disciplined enough to fold or cant recognise spots where they are clearly beat and put the hand down to a "cooler"

Ok, fair enough but im happy being the shepherd not the sheep.

so you are telling that you would call here needing 18% to make the call but actually having 13% equity?

can you explain your justifcation for making a call without the required pot odds?

would you call a potsize bet on the turn with a flush draw against a player capable of folding when a flush hits on the river?

actually having 13% equity?

how do you know that you have only 13%?

so you are telling that you would call here needing 18% to make the call but actually having 13% equity?

Please provide the background for these numbers because neither of these numbers are accurate. We need 36% for a profitable call and even when I give villain AA only and some tight ranges for the other two I can't get down to 13% equity. Against a tight but typical range of QQ+ AK we have more than 36%.

You've provided zero reads on the villains to justify that his range is AA only here other than the fact that he had AA this time which is not a good reason since that information wasn't available when you made your decision.

Your basic justification for this is that you are different than everyone else and we are all sheep. The same argument could be made to justify folding AA here preflop. Everyone else gets it in here but I'm a shepherd I fold it.

Note I have folded KK pre but this is a terrible example.

ok the last two posts in this thread are a prime example of why I think alot of people fail at poker. The inability to pay attention and notice key facts, or maybe not realising which bits of information are relevant or key.

Im not going to do the work for you or hold your hand. But ill give you a little hint,

The equity vs range calculation that shows I have 13% and 3 ABSOLUTELY KEY reads on villian that allows me to narrow his range down to KK+ (which is a far cry from zero reads) are provided in this thread. Im not going to repeat myself or do the work for you.The calc is easy to find, see if you can spot the reads.

Also, as previous mentioned, over millions of hands ive folded KK pre flop around 12 times, each time correctly (bar once where villian had KK) so no, its not just this time. thats 11 buyins saved that apparently no one else would of saved.

Yes I suppose I am saying I am in some ways different from the majority of players. I have many views and opionions that differ from the majority of players, but then the majority of players lose so im not too concerned about my opinions being radical or no one agreeing with me.

even if your numbers are correct, it would not be possible to perfectly identify the 1% of the time you are supposed to fold.

This the key point here in my opinion! What kind of samples do you guys have that you can ensure folding KK pre is the correct play? We are talking micro stakes huge player pool here right?

If some guy was able to draw such precise conclusions out of small sample sizes (small sample size in relation to the given problem) he would prolly be the best poker player of all time. Theoretically, as this is obviously impossible.