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TPTK snap duh or fold obvz?

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milky159

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253 posts
Joined 06/2011

Co: 28/25 over 179 hands, aggro reg who hasn't topped up for some reason.

reads: too aggressive in a lot of spots
small winner
Cbets too much and barrels too much but usually passive on river
hand
c/r 442r barrel Q c/x 7 with K9s


He has a high fold to 3 bet of 86% (7) and both the blinds had 9%+ 3 bet so seems like a good spot to flat and back raise to a squeeze.


Boss $30.00 No Limit Hold'em - 4 players - View hand 1655174
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

CO: $16.44
Hero (BTN): $40.52
SB: $30.15
BB: $30.76

Pre Flop: ($0.45) Hero is BTN with A Heart K Diamond
CO raises to $0.75, Hero calls $0.75, SB calls $0.60, 1 fold

Flop: ($2.55) J Spade A Spade T Diamond (3 players)
SB checks, CO bets $1.50, Hero calls $1.50, SB folds

Turn: ($5.55) 7 Heart (2 players)
CO bets $3.60, Hero calls $3.60

River: ($12.75) T Club (2 players)
CO bets $10.59, Hero ?

Final Pot: $12.75
CO wins $10.59
(Rake: $0.60)

Flop is a fairly trivial call even though I don't think its a flop he will stone bluff at but I obvz have his range crushed. Raising is probably too thin.

Turn: plan is to pretty much call and evaluate on the river, calling most and shipping when check to on most.

River: seems like a brick so I don't expect him to really bluff here. The biggest problem is I don't know him he shoves Ax, AJ or miss draws.

His bets sizing does indicate a hand with a lot of equity.

Don't know if I'm levelling myself into a fold here or not.

Thoughts?

Posted over 2 years ago

milky159

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253 posts
Joined 06/2011

sileekhunt

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725 posts
Joined 04/2010

I'm a 4NLer so my opinion might not have any value;

Anyways, for me personally this would be an easy fold on the river (I think flop & turn are fine). I dont really think you are beating any hands he is repping with this massive bet apart from busted FD.

I would take a look at his w$sd% - but yeh he is firing 3 streets vs you when all the draws got there - when its easy for you to have a hand so I doubt he's bluffing. He is certainly not passive on this river.

The only problem is that he is short stacked & whether or not he was going broke with the hand on any river after he bet the turn - thats a concern - but i still think you have to fold.

Posted over 2 years ago

ambtndplyr

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379 posts
Joined 02/2009

3bet pre. flat here is bad for your overallrange that you 3bet on bt
check your reads and samplesize. "aggroreg" who barrels too much and folds too much to 3bets pre sounds kinda weird
as played and given his betsize on river (esp if your read "passive on river" is correct) its a fold

Posted over 2 years ago

zachd2323

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3148 posts
Joined 04/2010

You don't beat anything here besides his pure air that triple barrels or a few suited connector FD's. Basically, everything else got there, and he can have a lot of hands that are value betting: AJ, AT, AA, JJ, TT, JT, KQ, 98s, QTs, KTs, T9s.

Posted over 2 years ago

ejplecht

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618 posts
Joined 01/2010

3bet pre would be horrible with the stats given imo, so nice play.
with the read that he barrel too much, I'm snapping here. Lots of worse hands+semibluffs he will shove here. Especially a guy that normally tops up will go nuts here, since he's gonna go all or nothing quite often. Just be prepared to call and loose since you're not allways calling good here. Call will be EV++ in my eyes though.

Posted over 2 years ago

milky159

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253 posts
Joined 06/2011

3bet pre. flat here is bad for your overallrange that you 3bet on bt
check your reads and samplesize. "aggroreg" who barrels too much and folds too much to 3bets pre sounds kinda weird
as played and given his betsize on river (esp if your read "passive on river" is correct) its a fold



Why do you think flatting here is bad if he folds a lot and is too aggressive post and the blinds are both 3 bet happy seems to make it a clear cut call pre.

whats wrong with a reg that is aggressive but not vs 3 bets?

Posted over 2 years ago

milky159

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253 posts
Joined 06/2011

3bet pre would be horrible with the stats given imo, so nice play.
with the read that he barrel too much, I'm snapping here. Lots of worse hands+semibluffs he will shove here. Especially a guy that normally tops up will go nuts here, since he's gonna go all or nothing quite often. Just be prepared to call and loose since you're not allways calling good here. Call will be EV++ in my eyes though.



Yeah I was thinking pretty much this after the hand but everyone I talk to seems to think its a clear fold Undecided

Posted over 2 years ago

zachd2323

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3148 posts
Joined 04/2010

3bet pre would be horrible with the stats given imo, so nice play.
with the read that he barrel too much, I'm snapping here. Lots of worse hands+semibluffs he will shove here. Especially a guy that normally tops up will go nuts here, since he's gonna go all or nothing quite often. Just be prepared to call and loose since you're not allways calling good here. Call will be EV++ in my eyes though.



I don't see a lot of hands he can be barreling that don't get there by the river. I guess it depends somewhat on how thin he can value bet here, but I don't think we beat a lot. He basically has to be 3 barreling all of his missed draws.

Posted over 2 years ago

danshreddies

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49 posts
Joined 05/2011

I don't see a lot of hands he can be barreling that don't get there by the river. I guess it depends somewhat on how thin he can value bet here, but I don't think we beat a lot. He basically has to be 3 barreling all of his missed draws.



100% agree... and fwiw i 3bet pre. not a fan of ''trapping' with ak espesh on button where my raise gets less respect anyway. and expecting him to barrel a lot oop post is a big ask imo Grin Grin

Posted over 2 years ago

danshreddies

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49 posts
Joined 05/2011

and by a lot, i mean more than one street Grin

Posted over 2 years ago

ambtndplyr

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379 posts
Joined 02/2009

Why do you think flatting here is bad if he folds a lot and is too aggressive post and the blinds are both 3 bet happy seems to make it a clear cut call pre.

whats wrong with a reg that is aggressive but not vs 3 bets?



define your bt 3bet range vs this opponent

theres nothing wrong with them. just sayin that those kind of players are very rare (most people are preflop aggressive/speqy since its obv the most easiest and least complex street) and your samplesize of only 179 hands is obv very small
that said taking down a pfr and the blinds with AK without a flop is not a bad result at all

Posted over 2 years ago

milky159

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253 posts
Joined 06/2011

define your bt 3bet range vs this opponent

theres nothing wrong with them. just sayin that those kind of players are very rare (most people are preflop aggressive/speqy since its obv the most easiest and least complex street) and your samplesize of only 179 hands is obv very small
that said taking down a pfr and the blinds with AK without a flop is not a bad result at all



3 betting is a huge waste of our hand. We basically just get him to fold all the hands we have 50%+ equity and isolate ourself vs a very strong range. Given hes being too aggressive post we are just asking for money by flatting.
My range for 3 betting him here is basically bluffs. I would 3 bet AA and KK vs him but like flatting them with the player in the blinds left to act.

Posted over 2 years ago

delcrossb

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4267 posts
Joined 04/2009

I hate these but as a rule of thumb you'd be making a mistake to fold top pair for less than 70bbs. I'd shove the turn myself though.

Posted over 2 years ago

milky159

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253 posts
Joined 06/2011

I hate these but as a rule of thumb you'd be making a mistake to fold top pair for less than 70bbs. I'd shove the turn myself though.




Yeah I guessing shoving the turn is going to be good as I think he'll stack off with some of his bigger draws and It would be hard for him to fold AQ given his stack size.

Posted over 2 years ago




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