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Basically got lost in this hand. Couldn't put him on a straight and wasn't that sure he would play his set like this. Having thought about it I think he probably would play a set like this what do you think? Any comments on this hand would be good.

The Villain is a 23/21 with 15% three bet over 107 hands - also seems pretty agro post flop, his aggression factor is like 18 lol. This is the only hand I have seen him c/r (4 chances). Since this hand played out I have seen him 3 bet QJo from the blinds.

After the hand played out he said he had a pair plus a flush draw on the flop butI just don't see how he could have. What do you think?

Poker Stars $10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 1590005
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

SB: $10.05
BB: $10.58
UTG: $3.94
Hero (CO): $10.68
BTN: $10.00

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is CO with A A
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.30, 2 folds, BB calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.65) 7 9 T (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.40, BB raises to $1.50, Hero calls $1.10

Turn: ($3.65) 5 (2 players)
BB bets $2.10, Hero calls $2.10

River: ($7.85) 4 (2 players)
BB bets $6.68, Hero FOLDS grrrrrrrr

If he is a "bad aggro" i.e. over values weaker hands then I'm just calling down here. I doubt he has 8J or 68, looks like a busted FD or set, but since sets are rare then we can estimate the likelyhood as low.

Against this type of player get a decent hand and reel them in, yes sometimes you get owned but its +EV. If you raise they just tend to fold out weaker hands/air (unless they're really bad)

If he is a "bad aggro" i.e. over values weaker hands then I'm just calling down here. I doubt he has 8J or 68, looks like a busted FD or set, but since sets are rare then we can estimate the likelyhood as low.

Against this type of player get a decent hand and reel them in, yes sometimes you get owned but its +EV. If you raise they just tend to fold out weaker hands/air (unless they're really bad)

Does it change anything if I tell you he is a winning player over a good sample at 5 and 10NL?

If he is a "bad aggro" i.e. over values weaker hands then I'm just calling down here. I doubt he has 8J or 68, looks like a busted FD or set, but since sets are rare then we can estimate the likelyhood as low.

Against this type of player get a decent hand and reel them in, yes sometimes you get owned but its +EV. If you raise they just tend to fold out weaker hands/air (unless they're really bad)

I agree, though I definitely feel like a fish when he shows me 99.

I also want to add in that the decision here is on the turn. yes, he might not bluff one of the only safe cards in the deck. however, if you are folding the 4d you are folding nearly every card. calling the turn hoping for villain to check and give up when you're ahead is usually going to be a losing strategy. there's a parlay going on here, where you both need to have the best hand on the river and for villain to not bluff. if villain's entire range has 50% equity here (sets, draws, etc.), and he bluffs 50% of the time on the river given the opportunity, this is a losing call. you'd only win 25% in that scenario (50%x50%) and not getting odds to call.

I agree, though I definitely feel like a fish when he shows me 99.

I also want to add in that the decision here is on the turn. yes, he might not bluff one of the only safe cards in the deck. however, if you are folding the 4d you are folding nearly every card. calling the turn hoping for villain to check and give up when you're ahead is usually going to be a losing strategy. there's a parlay going on here, where you both need to have the best hand on the river and for villain to not bluff. if villain's entire range has 50% equity here (sets, draws, etc.), and he bluffs 50% of the time on the river given the opportunity, this is a losing call. you'd only win 25% in that scenario (50%x50%) and not getting odds to call.

What do you think about just shoving the turn? Or do you think it's better to either just fold the turn or go call/call on "blank" rivers?

Does it change anything if I tell you he is a winning player over a good sample at 5 and 10NL?

I'm more interested in my own personal reads like I said. When ever I see one of these types of players make this play with a medium strength pp, a top pair type hands or even total air then I know they over value hands and I can just let them value own themselves against me. I would only raise to get more money in if necessary.

Can we discount overpairs here? Villain would 3 bet those preflop, correct? What about Axs? Villain has a high 3 bet%. Would villain 3 bet those hands preflop vs a CO open?

Can we discount overpairs here? Villain would 3 bet those preflop, correct? What about Axs? Villain has a high 3 bet%. Would villain 3 bet those hands preflop vs a CO open?

I would have thought so that's why I just cant see wtat he has that I beat?

What do you think about just shoving the turn? Or do you think it's better to either just fold the turn or go call/call on "blank" rivers?

I need to sit down and look at these spots in depth. this comes up a lot and I think it's always so close between raising and calling down.

Can we discount overpairs here? Villain would 3 bet those preflop, correct? What about Axs? Villain has a high 3 bet%. Would villain 3 bet those hands preflop vs a CO open?

I think overpairs are unlikely postflop as well as preflop. I don't think we have enough of a read to discount Axcc, KQ, KJ, QJ types, and he can probably have stuff like A8s (maybe not even spades), 87ss, and AJ.

Does it change anything if I tell you he is a winning player over a good sample at 5 and 10NL?

if he is a winning player I like a turn fold.

I need to sit down and look at these spots in depth. this comes up a lot and I think it's always so close between raising and calling down.

Sounds like a good DC short.