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Villain's your standard ABC tag playing 10nl, folding to a lot of 3bet, stealing his fair share, etc, he's running 22/16 over 79 hands, cbet 100% out of 5.

Poker Stars $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 1466026
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Hero (SB): $10.05
BB: $4.29
UTG: $13.90
CO: $10.00
BTN: $15.33

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is SB with T T
2 folds, BTN raises to $0.30, Hero calls $0.25, 1 fold

Flop: ($0.70) A 9 7 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $0.40, Hero calls $0.40

Turn: ($1.50) A (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: ($1.50) K (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $0.90, Hero raises to $3.90

I don't 3bet pre because playing 3bet pot OOP w/ TT is pretty awful and having to fold to a 4bet sucks;
The flop is pretty wet but giving he has cbet everything so far his range is still wide so I still call hoping for a cheap showdown and also I think he plays standard TAG so doesn't double barrel enough with his semi-bluff & air to push me off my hand;

OTR a lot of his range now has decent showdown value and I doubt he has many aces in his range given he'd of double barreled a lot of them. So since I still have the opportunity to represent an ace I decided to chk/r to get him to fold his Kx/air.

Thoughts?

Well you don't need to check raise to fold out his air, you can just check call and beat his air. I think doing this to make him fold JJ/QQ/Kx might not be so bad, because people just generally give people credit for river checkraises, especially if he's a 10NL reg. So it comes down to counting combos. How many combos of JJ/QQ does he have given he cbet an A high flop? How many combinations of Kx does he have that value bets the river? And what % of time do you think he will fold these hands?

Compare that to how many combos of a back door flush he has and how often you think he checks the turn instead of barreling it given the A has paired. It comes down to a guessing game regarding his tendencies.

Be prepared for for people telling you this is far to fancy for 10NL, which is probably good advice in general, but this might be a good play and its a good thing that you are considering these spots.

I don't think this play is bad, but I wouldn't do it without a strong read that villain value bets the river thinly, and can fold to a raise.

Thanks to both of you guys, I know this might seem like FPS to a lot of people but I figured this would be a pretty good opportunity for it and wanted to see if he'd call me w/ his Kx. I also don't think he bets QQ/JJ OTR but I have no idea, good for me if he did lol.

I'm guessing a more "standard" line would be to just call OTR? Can't really see myself folding given how wide his range is (even tho the bet size smells like thin value)...

For the record he ended up snap folding so probably didn't have much.

I think you should also keep in mind that there are very few people at 10NL who will c/r the river with their big hands after the pfr checked back the turn. But in this case he has a lot of Kx in his range so if you expect him to valuebet those hands I guess your play is okay. However I'm not sure a lot of regs will bet Kx here.

I would call in this spot, because I don't think you'll play Ax like this very often and you have showdown value against his range.

I think your play here is questionable. I don't think you can totally discount Ax from his range, and I also don't expect him to vbet Kx here that often. I also don't expect him to bluff here very often. So when he does in fact bet it could easily be with a hand that doesn't want to fold against a xr. I also think your xr size is way too big.

I think your play here is questionable. I don't think you can totally discount Ax from his range, and I also don't expect him to vbet Kx here that often. I also don't expect him to bluff here very often. So when he does in fact bet it could easily be with a hand that doesn't want to fold against a xr. I also think your xr size is way too big.

thats what i wasthinking but also thinking if you made it big enough would he fold a random Ax? I doubt it at 10nl much but maybe 50nl+

I think your play here is questionable. I don't think you can totally discount Ax from his range, and I also don't expect him to vbet Kx here that often. I also don't expect him to bluff here very often. So when he does in fact bet it could easily be with a hand that doesn't want to fold against a xr. I also think your xr size is way too big.

What part of his range isn't afraid of a x/r? I mean if he has the deck on lock down with a monster like A9 or something good for him but his range is mostly total air and marginal hands that beat me. A call is def +Ev here but I was wondering if the Ev of a chk/r would be higher.

I agree with the raise sizing, it's quite big.

Edit : I never expect 10nl regs to fold trips ever richbrown but he almost never has trips given I'm 100% sure he barrels there because the deck is just so wet.

I'd value bet Kx here pretty much every time if I were villain and call off your x/r for two reasons...

1. I would expect you to x/r me a lot OTF vs this drawy board for value or protection

2. After it goes x/x OTT, I wouldn't expect you to go for a x/r OTR because it's very unlikely that I'm going to check behind on THAT turn card and then bet the river thin (JJ-QQ). So therefore, I would expect a smallish value type bet from you OTR with an ace. Sure you could have like JT, but again, I would expect you to lead OTR with your value range.

I'd value bet Kx here pretty much every time if I were villain and call off your x/r for two reasons...

1. I would expect you to x/r me a lot OTF vs this drawy board for value or protection

2. After it goes x/x OTT, I wouldn't expect you to go for a x/r OTR because it's very unlikely that I'm going to check behind on THAT turn card and then bet the river thin (JJ-QQ). So therefore, I would expect a smallish value type bet from you OTR with an ace. Sure you could have like JT, but again, I would expect you to lead OTR with your value range.

That means you'd fold your Kx here if I lead lets say 1.30?

I thought a chk/r would look sooo strong compared to leading but at the same time this is probably a reason for him to call with his marginal holding.

I like your thought process, but agree with Hielko. Also, people check when they make full houses for some reason. Your play would be better if you had some confirmed reads on how he plays.

I have similar feelings about your preflop flat. I like flatting to keep his wide range in to exploit him cbetting too much, but again all you have is some stats over a small sample and no confirmed reads. I'd just 3b pre flop value. You're well ahead of his range. Not wanting to get called and see overcards on the flop is an emotional thought, not one based on math/ranges etc. Unless you know he folds tons to 3bets I'd 3b him all day.

A call is def +Ev here but I was wondering if the Ev of a chk/r would be higher.

I don't think calling is def +EV here. People don't really bluff that much with a cbet flop, x/x turn, bet river small line.