Linkwood is doing a mini-series at his $0.05/0.10 session and he's quizzing you on hands. This is hand 1 of 4.
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The king hit some parts of his range, like you said. But it is also a good scare card for all his bluffs.
Although if he was bluffing he wouldnot use this size.
If he has a full house he could use this size, if he is a thinking player and knows that your range is weak. He definitely use this size if he is valuebetting a king.
But even if we did know his range is a king only (he would bet bigger with fullhouses and bluffs) I dont like raising as a bluff here. Simply because I think a lag at nl10 has a hard time folding a top pair.
So easy fold, imo!
Judging by his river betsizing it looks like villain wants a call. He doesn't really have too many value hands in his range here other than 88,66, and KQ, KJ type hands. He could have picked up a flush draw on the turn with KQ or KJ and then backed into a pair on the river. If he was betting 77 on the turn I think he would probably end up checking this river because a lot of villains will assume the king hit us. I say this because we checked the flop and players at this limit will automatically assume we checked behind w/AK.
I'm having a hard time coming up with hands that decide to bluff the turn and river, I guess he could have busted clubs or a busted straight with the former being more likely. On the other hand if he is a thinking reg he will know we are never strong after checking back the flop and flatting the turn. Our hand should be pretty face up in this spot, allowing him to bluff us off of it. Linkwood, do you think the hand would have played easier if you did decide to bet the flop? Yes we are behind a decent portion of his range but we are also ahead some too. I think we can include hands like J10s and Q10s. I think you're giving the villain a little more credit in his hand selection than he might deserve. Interested to hear what others think.
A high bluffs, middle PPs, spiked KX, 8Xs or 6Xs (connectors/one gappers/ suited As that called). Most likely he has something w marginal SD value.
I agree that nut type of hands like sets/trips (yes there is 2:s in his range) are not really in his range due bet size. However I fold river, cause these guys dont like folding and we have been passive. Yes K is great card for raising, but...
for the AdTd hand..
I dont really think AJ or KQ are in his range. If he is a semi-aggro reg he will 3bet those hands a fair amount from the blinds against a btn min raise. So I would say easily half of those combo's are out of his range.
As far as the decision is, I think its either raise or fold. I personaly would raise. When he bets the turn I think his range is mostly overs and suited connectors with possibly TT,99,88,77,66,55. I dont think he really has any monster hands on the turn, but definitly has lots of bluffs and semi-bluffs. If he had a monster or good hand he would be betting closer to pot.
When it comes to the river, The 1/2 pot bet tells me he doesnt have 99,66,KQ. With those hands he would bet more for value. If he had A2 which is really the only 2x type hand he can have, he would be betting more on the turn and river.
So because you have showed so much weakness, checking flop, calling turn. I can see him firing away with all his busted flush draws, his busted straight draws and even trying to protect a hand like 77,99. I am not sure he would fold his 99,TT and obviously he wont fold his KT,KJ hands but like I said, he has so many busted flush draws and straight draws that I think a raise will take down the pot more times than not.
I think he has mainly marginal holdings (33-55,77,maybe 99, maybe some 98s/67s combos) that he is trying to get to showdown with cheap. I disagree slightly with raising this as we have to have a read first that he can fold any type of pair hand on the river (a LOT of 10NL regs will never fold a pair, even to a river raise). My instinct says to fold as he will show up with a pair too often to make a call profitable.
Also, I was wondering about what you said regarding 'betting for protection'. Isn't protection just a result of betting for value (i.e. not the reason we ever would bet) or betting to collect dead money? Just a small quibble I know, but its one of the things from Baluga Whales vids that was drilled into my head.
Great idea for a series by the way, looking forward to the next episode!
First of all I think his Preflop calling Range to a minraise is much wider. I would add all pocketpairs, and suitedconnectors from maybe 65s upwards and a lot of Axs type hands. On the Flop he checks all his hands. On the Turn he will bet (given the read that he is agressiv) probably a lot of his air and valuehands and only check his showdownhands like Ax (I would take only the half of his combos) and the poketpairs like 33, 44, 55, 77. He brings so much air to the river that we have an easy call with 3:1 odds, because I think he has not so many Ks in his range. Still his betsizing is looking like a bet for thin-value with a Toppairtype hand. Still I think the odds are really good and we can "buy" a good read on his Preflopcalling range and barreling tendencies for future EV spots.
I prefere to use Pokerstove to visualize a range.
I like you explaination and focus on ranges. Well done.
Great idea for a series by the way, looking forward to the next episode!
We really shud have more interactive series, like "What would Joe Tall do ?".
Well now we have this and seems like Bellatrix is giving homework in Math Attacks-serie, good good...
I'm not sure I entirely agree with your range analysis up to the river so I guess that clouds the answer somewhat. If he is an aggro reg I think AJ+, KQ are in his 3betting range and I actually think he is more likely to call with medium PP's 22-99, SC's 67+, KJs, KTs and possibly some suited aces too - A7s-ATs and maybe even good suited one gappers - T8s, J9s, QTs.
His bet on the turn narrows his range to any of the suited clubs, GS's, sets, A8s, T8s, 98s, 87s, 99 + some random bluffs.
His river bet is interesting. If he had nuts type hands (Kx or sets) he would bet bigger here I think, if he was bluffing he would often bet bigger too, so I think he is mostly betting for value with a marginal not nut hand - A8, T8s, 87s, 98s, 99. This itself you could say is a little odd as most regs at this level can't bet anywhere near thin for value - which might put some weight to it being a cheap bluff on a good river bluffing card.
What can we do about it? Well I guess we could raise but if we do then it needs to be a decent sized raise - to maybe $2.5-$2.8 as a reg is never folding 8x or 99 to a small raise. We can only call if we think there are more bluffs in his range than value bets (obv) but I just don't think there are with that bet size. So it's raise or fold for me & I am not sure how often regs will fold any 8x hand or 99 to a raise here so I probably just fold.
Villain is probably defending wider range from the SB since you minraised I think it's something in the lines of: 22-99, 98s,T9s,JTs,QJ,QTs,KJ,KQ(he might 3bet sometimes),ATs,A9s,AJ(he might 3bet sometimes).
When we check the flop our hand looks like A high or maybe small pocket pair. We are almost always cbetting this flop with our T9s, 76s, QJ, 99-AA, A8s etc.
On the turn he is probably betting almost all of his clubs with the intention of bluffing most blank rivers, he could also be betting this with his total air KJ,KQ,QJ but I think he might be bit more inclined to check this turn with his A high hands just because he has little bit more showdown value. He's value range is probably sets, 98s,99 and maybe sometimes 55,77. Our range for calling looks like some A highs and small pocket pairs we shouldn't have that many backdoor flushdraws in our range because we cbet most of our suited connectors on the flop.
On the river I think this betsize can be both for thin value and as a bluff and maybe he could sometimes bet this small with his stronger hands just to get a crying call out of pocket pairs. But I think he is also going to bet this river with his air 95% of the time and we beat all of his air. And I don't think that I can get him off from his 98s,99 etc.
With that said I think call is probably the best play unless we think he folds his thin value hands.
If we assume you're correct on the range, including removing AJo once he bets the turn we get this:
ProPokerTools Hold 'em Simulation
AdTd 40.2597% Wins Hi: 40.2597%, Ties Hi: 0.0000%
88-22,AxJx,KxQx,QxJx-QxTx,Tx9x,KxQy,QxJy-QxTy 59.7403% Wins Hi: 59.7403%, Ties Hi: 0.0000%
Looking purely at the pot odds we're being offered we only need to be good 26% of the time to warrant a call, but we're good 40% of the time according to our range analysis, and possibly a lot more if we include more busted club draws.
We've got three options; call, fold, or raise.
I think we can rule out folding based purely on the pot odds / equity analysis above. We're folding a +EV spot here if we're right about his range.
If we raise here we can get him to fold his busted draws, QT, T9, QJ, etc... but I really doubt we're going to get him off of a hand with any showdown equity. Basically we're only folding out the hands we beat and getting called by the hands that beat us.
Based on the odds we're getting, and the fact that we have approximately 40% showdown equity based on our range analysis I think that calling is definitely the right play.
I call in this spot, and expect to be beat a fair bit of the time, but turn a small profit.
EV = (.4026)(1.85) + (.5974)(-.65) = $0.59
I agree with Doc Lemon, Melvis, and spotDespot in that I think his preflop calling range (esp vs a min raise) is much wider. I doubt 10nl regs are folding 22-55 and I think most are calling a lot of Axs hands. I also think that an aggro reg who has been 3betting the hero a lot will 3bet AJ, KQ, KJ a large % of the time.
On the river, I agree with some of the others who said they don't expect this to ever be a nutted hand and rarely a bluff because of the small bet sizing. I think it's either an 8x thin value type hand or like a 77/55 type hand that doesn't really know why it's betting and wants an easy showdown.
So I think this is a raise or fold spot. I don't think he will ever fold Kx to a raise, but I think a lot of his Kx are discounted. And I agree with spotDespot that if we are going to raise to get him off of his marginal showdown value, we need to make it really big because 10nl players don't fold. It may get a decent amount of folds, but it also gives us a bad price on our bluff, and a 10nl player may just call 8x anyway some of the time so I don't like raising that much, which means I probably fold.