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I know that the common belief is that we should get it in with a solid overpair in a 3bet pot but the more I think about it, the more I come to think that we should be playing more cautiously in 3bet pots as the aggressor facing a TAG (or LAG) caller if they shouldn't expect us to be 3betting light in the given situation. This is because if they don't think we're light they are prob set mining against our strong range. So if we 3bet KK pre and we haven't 3bet this TAG once before, or we did 3bet him but we showed down the goods, he should be inclined to think we have a big hand and usually only calling our 3bet pre in hopes of spiking a set and winning a big pot.

Here is a hand I played recently which got me thinking about this.

Villain has seen me 3bet/shove against him once (he folded his 4bet to the shove) already. This was my second 3bet against him in 183 hands. He's playing a 25/15/22 AFq style over 183 hands.

Poker Stars $50.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 365306
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

SB: $50.25
BB: $29.55
UTG: $71.20
CO: $61.60
Hero (BTN): $81.40

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BTN with K K
1 fold, CO raises to $2, Hero raises to $6.50, 2 folds, CO calls $4.50

Flop: ($13.75) 6 4 8 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $9.00, CO raises to $22.50, Hero calls $13.50

Turn: ($58.75) 6 (2 players)
CO bets $15.50, Hero raises to $52.40, CO calls $17.10 all in

River: ($123.95) T (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $123.95
CO shows 8 8
Hero shows K K
CO wins $121.95
(Rake: $2.00)

So it stands to reason that if we 3bet, he calls, and the flop comes out 648tt, we should either bet/fold to a decent sized raise against someone who thinks you are strong or check back and hope he value bets 99-JJ one street, checks the river, and we can value bet it or we can fold to a big river bet. What do you think?

i wouldnt be too woried about him flopping a set, I mean he doest have imlpied odds to play like this and its a mistake on his part, and I also think that 3betting flop would be better option couse what would You do if another spade comes ?? or something like 5 or 9, as deafult i would get it in and get action from FD with overs, and 99+, tbh I got into a few spots like those and when i though about it, I get to conclusuon that, the one who made bigger mistake is the guy who is setmining without proper implied odds not me who is getting it in on 8high board with overpair

Standard situation. Your flop and turn play are not really pretty. I would have 4bet him preflop something like $7/8. Your Cbet is fine and once Villain raised you have to come over the top and shove all in on the flop. A call is a mistake due to implied odds and stake sizing IMO. I never ever bet fold your hand here. We are most of the time in a pretty good shape here especially with a K. Thats just a cooler.

Good luck at the tables

I'd shove the flop here all day. If he is raising a hand like QQ/JJ here he will often call a shove now, but might get scared on many of the bad turns that can land.

Honestly, there is usually not much you can do when someone flops a set against your AA/KK in a 3bet pot for 100bb. The pot is so big that he doesn't have to show up with worse often enough for stacking off to be profitable. And it can be very suprising what people will stack off with sometimes. I have seen players who looked like reasonable TAG's show up here with 98o or 77 and just stack off on the flop. I'd need alot more then just 'solid TAG numbers' before I could ever get away here. In the end, all that is needed to play TAG-numbers is a handchart and third grade reading abilities

One scenario where you might be able to get away is if you played enough hands with someone where you know

1 - he is playing tight to 3bets, so he will not show up here with suited connectors, suited aces and stuff like that

2 - he will play TT-QQ passively here by just calling down

3 - he doesn't bluff much at all

once you know that, his raising range becomes much more weighted towards sets and you might be able to get away, but it takes alot more then 138 hands to get those sort of reads.

so uuh..yeah..a little longer post then I intended. Anyway, hand looks pretty standard to me =]

One scenario where you might be able to get away is if you played enough hands with someone where you know
1 - he is playing tight to 3bets, so he will not show up here with suited connectors, suited aces and stuff like that
2 - he will play TT-QQ passively here by just calling down
3 - he doesn't bluff much at all

I dont think that many people think like you at NL50. I guess you are playing higher stakes to have a pretty accurate thinking like that but I am still not able to fold KKs in this kind of situation against any type of opponents.

Good luck at the tables

Not too many players are going to find a way not to stack off in this spot. I agree that shipping the flop is better then waiting for the turn but there are some metagame issues that come into play. When your stacks start to get over 100 BB effective you should consider making your 3 bets a little larger and their mistakes greater if they are going to set mine you.

I'd shove the flop here all day. If he is raising a hand like QQ/JJ here he will often call a shove now, but might get scared on many of the bad turns that can land.

Honestly, there is usually not much you can do when someone flops a set against your AA/KK in a 3bet pot for 100bb. The pot is so big that he doesn't have to show up with worse often enough for stacking off to be profitable. And it can be very suprising what people will stack off with sometimes. I have seen players who looked like reasonable TAG's show up here with 98o or 77 and just stack off on the flop. I'd need alot more then just 'solid TAG numbers' before I could ever get away here. In the end, all that is needed to play TAG-numbers is a handchart and third grade reading abilities

One scenario where you might be able to get away is if you played enough hands with someone where you know

1 - he is playing tight to 3bets, so he will not show up here with suited connectors, suited aces and stuff like that

2 - he will play TT-QQ passively here by just calling down

3 - he doesn't bluff much at all

once you know that, his raising range becomes much more weighted towards sets and you might be able to get away, but it takes alot more then 138 hands to get those sort of reads.

so uuh..yeah..a little longer post then I intended. Anyway, hand looks pretty standard to me =]

4. will he fire another barrel on the turn with a flush draw or check and give up.

after you see this happen you should just 3-bet light OTB and c-bet and make all your money back from him.

after you see this happen you should just 3-bet light OTB and c-bet and make all your money back from him.

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Basically he has a common leak of calling too many 3bs. Once you realize this, it's time to exploit this leak.

On another note, I don't mind a bet/fold with an overpair if you have a strong read that he would never do this w/ draws. Against certain players, their flop x/r range has a mere overpair crushed and just because "everyone else would get it in here" doesn't mean you have to. Reciprocality ftw.

i wouldnt be too woried about him flopping a set, I mean he doest have imlpied odds to play like this

Just because he doesn't have odds to set mine, doesn't mean that we shouldn't worry about him hitting a set. Its still a part of a tagfish's flop getting it in range and it needs to be accounted for.

as deafult i would get it in and get action from FD with overs, and 99+, tbh I got into a few spots like those and when i though about it,

Thinking that a tag is going to auto stack off with 99-JJ on an 8 high board is a little too optimistic imo. Some bad players will but many won't since they realize that if they get the money in, they are usually behind a bigger overpair. It all comes down to what hands they think we will 3bet them with pre and if they think its a tight range, they will set mine and if no set, no bet usually. If villain doesn't suspect that you are light 3betting pre, then villain's will often fold 99-TT and sometimes JJ on this flop to your cbet since they didn't hit their set.

I get to conclusuon that, the one who made bigger mistake is the guy who is setmining without proper implied odds not me who is getting it in on 8high board with overpair

If your opponent's range (on a flop such as the one in my example) is sets and AsQs/AsJs, and you get all the money in with AA/KK, your equity is about 19%. When you get your whole stack in the middle as a 19% dog, you are making a pretty big mistake, much bigger than the much smaller mistake of my opponent getting 4.50 in as a 20% dog with lower PP. Post flop he is getting the rest of his money in super good with that range.

And I think our difference in opinion lies in what we think villain's range is for getting it in on the flop. I know that villain knows that I'm not light when I 3bet him pre. He knows I have a big hand since I only 3bet him once prior in over 100 hands and I had it that time. If he had QQ+ he would just get it in pre prob, so when he flats it pre its very likely he is trying to hit something big to stack me with and I need to keep that in mind when he flats pre and c/r post flop. So if he has 99-JJ post flop, I think he would call one bet and then fold to a turn bet since it would be apparent that I have a big pair. The only players who would get it in with 99+ are spewtard fishes and I don't have reason to think this guy is a spewtard fish.

Standard situation. Your flop and turn play are not really pretty. I would have 4bet him preflop something like $7/8.

What makes it standard?

I 3bet him pre and he called, therefore I can't 4bet him pre.

Your Cbet is fine and once Villain raised you have to come over the top and shove all in on the flop. A call is a mistake due to implied odds and stake sizing IMO. I never ever bet fold your hand here. We are most of the time in a pretty good shape here especially with a K. Thats just a cooler.

Good luck at the tables

This is what I'm trying to get you guys to think more about. I'm trying to contend that auto stacking off with KK in this spot to any villain who has any range isn't a good idea. When you are up against a set miner who doesn't suspect that you have a wide 3betting range in this spot, what hands is he going to stack off with that you are beating?? AsQs and AsJs are the only ones I can think of.

On another note, I don't mind a bet/fold with an overpair if you have a strong read that he would never do this w/ draws. Against certain players, their flop x/r range has a mere overpair crushed and just because "everyone else would get it in here" doesn't mean you have to. Reciprocality ftw.

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yea, that's right, I just quoted myself

Tubasteve hit on the point that I'd like to expand on. If this player is going to call with hands like that, then you need to 3-bet him light. You can steal a ton of pots from him the 90%-ish time that he doesn't flop a set. This way you make more money with your 3-betting range by both having more hands that 3-bet and take the pot down, and also reducing the percentage of the time that you are stacking off... thus reducing his implied odds on his preflop call. I do think it is important to have some 3-bet bluffing in your range against all but the super-nits.

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yea, that's right, I just quoted myself

Lol you can't quote yourself just to say this or +1... That's cheating

I'd shove the flop here all day. If he is raising a hand like QQ/JJ here he will often call a shove now, but might get scared on many of the bad turns that can land.

Don't you think that if he had QQ/JJ and he thought it was strong enough to get all in with on the flop, then he would just get it in pre usually?

Honestly, there is usually not much you can do when someone flops a set against your AA/KK in a 3bet pot for 100bb. The pot is so big that he doesn't have to show up with worse often enough for stacking off to be profitable. And it can be very suprising what people will stack off with sometimes. I have seen players who looked like reasonable TAG's show up here with 98o or 77 and just stack off on the flop. I'd need alot more then just 'solid TAG numbers' before I could ever get away here. In the end, all that is needed to play TAG-numbers is a handchart and third grade reading abilities

One scenario where you might be able to get away is if you played enough hands with someone where you know

1 - he is playing tight to 3bets, so he will not show up here with suited connectors, suited aces and stuff like that

2 - he will play TT-QQ passively here by just calling down

3 - he doesn't bluff much at all

once you know that, his raising range becomes much more weighted towards sets and you might be able to get away, but it takes alot more then 138 hands to get those sort of reads.

So you are saying that your default strategy against a tag should be to auto stack off in this spot every time unless you have said reads??? I'm not sure if I agree. I would want to know if the majority of 50NLers who have stats of the villain in question will stack off with worse hands than KK post flop here in a 3bet pot. I would have to do some statistical analysis or something to prove it. Since I know that when I flat call a 3bet, I'm almost always set mining and I think thats pretty common to other tags. Like when you 3bet someone and they call and then insta fold to your cbet, they were set mining usually. And how often does that happen to you? Well it happens to me frequently so I can imagine that alot of 50NLers are set mining.

Also, before I could stack off here, I would want some solid reason to believe that villain could reasonably think he was ahead of my getting it in on the flop range with a hand like TT. I would want a more aggro bluffy image. If I look like a nit, then I certainly wouldn't like to get it in here since my hand is what it looks like when I 3bet pre and cbet post. IOW my hand is a little face up, thus allowing my opponents to adjust correctly.

I remember yesterday, I 3bet an UTG opener who was short who had min raised UTG. A TAG who I play with often flat called in between us and the shorty called. I was first to act post flop on a flop of 223tt and I cbet 1/2 pot, the TAG sat there for 20 seconds before folding and the shorty folded too. Why did he sit there like that and then fold? What did he tank fold there? Well, when I cbet into him (who just cold called a 3bet) and the shorty, I really can't be bluffing ever so he had to put me on a bigger pair than his and he folded. A similar thought process would happen to him if I hadn't 3bet anyone for 100 hands and all of a sudden I 3bet his open. He's not going to auto stack off post flop with 99-JJ UI in a spot like that. I think he had 99-JJ almost always there.