mtheory8
54 posts
Joined 10/2010
Linkwood, where you you get these concepts from? I went quite deep into behavioral economics where many of thece concepts are described, but do you think you can point me to books/resources that focus on irrational behavior concepts that you describe from the area of psychology?
My dissertation topic is on irrational investment choices 
doc.lemon what school do you go to? are you in psychology or business? I'm attending psychonomics as well as judgment decision making annual conference this year at st.louis. psychonomics is a great conference that deals with a lot of this behavioral economics stuff. very prominent scholars in the field are there like dan ariely, etc
Posted over 2 years ago
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apv2009
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Joined 09/2010
linkwood
557 posts
Joined 08/2008
Why not raise the turn from thin value and free showdown? you think we could 3 bets us with draws?
It def has some merit. I doubt we're getting 3bet a lot unless he has a monster, but it is a possibility that he could 3bet a big draw. Vs this villain it might make more sense to raise turn, but in general I feel like most villains have a somewhat polarized range (sets, worse pairs, some draws) and might just fold everything we beat except for a few draws.
Posted over 2 years ago
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infire
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linkwood
557 posts
Joined 08/2008
You mention when discussing this hand that we would c/c KQ but that we checked the flop open-ended intending to c/r. Is this something that should matter to us in this spot in your opinion?
If you're referring to the imbalance of the play, no, it doesn't really matter that much imo. He's not going to exploit us at all, plus we can have enough slowplayed AA and KK, AQ, and TT to make the threat of a c/r reasonable. When we c/r we're just trying to fold out his air and semi-bluffs (AJ, AK), primarily Ax hands. Think he folds all those enough of the time to make the c/r profitable.
Posted over 2 years ago
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NiMRODdk
4 posts
Joined 11/2010
Time Link to 00:13:48
Here with the KQo I wonder why you are checking so fast on the river. I could differently see myself be bluffing a reg, who in my opinion shows he is weak in this spot. Where I also know he is good enough to laydown toppair, maybe even sets. Normally I try and get a fixed point to check and bet on the time line. If i am playing players I think will take notice of it or use quick or slow actions to induce weaker players to act after my wish. I agree we should c/f here, but would it not be better to wait a bit with the check to try and induce a check from villain behind? All this come from the thought that generally the faster a player acts the weaker he is. I know you can't use it all the time, but again I think you can here on this limit.
Btw, was not to look for mistakes, just wondered what your thoughts were on the matter. Thanks for some great videos so far. I am quite new on DC.
Edit: Just notice the time line did not come up. I mean the hand on table one around 13mins into the video.
Posted over 2 years ago
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linkwood
557 posts
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Here with the KQo I wonder why you are checking so fast on the river. I could differently see myself be bluffing a reg, who in my opinion shows he is weak in this spot. Where I also know he is good enough to laydown toppair, maybe even sets. Normally I try and get a fixed point to check and bet on the time line. If i am playing players I think will take notice of it or use quick or slow actions to induce weaker players to act after my wish. I agree we should c/f here, but would it not be better to wait a bit with the check to try and induce a check from villain behind? All this come from the thought that generally the faster a player acts the weaker he is. I know you can't use it all the time, but again I think you can here on this limit.
Btw, was not to look for mistakes, just wondered what your thoughts were on the matter. Thanks for some great videos so far. I am quite new on DC.
Edit: Just notice the time line did not come up. I mean the hand on table one around 13mins into the video.
Good question. Honestly, some people may look at timing tells but I tend to not worry about it so much unless I know that someone is paying attention. For someone to exploit a timing tell the person has to be paying attention, notice the tell, believe that the tell is actually a tell, and interpret it correctly. So a lot has to go right in order to be exploited. That being said I do use timing occasionally to mix things up against regs who are paying attention. For example, calling or checking fast with super strong hands to induce action.
In terms of looking for these tells in others, just make sure you don't put too much stock into it given that there are so many variables that influence the speed of a person's actions. If you see a timing tell you can use the information, but like all other reads it should be used in conjunction with other information to tell the entire story. It is very rare that we take an action based on only one piece of information.
Posted over 2 years ago
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cpau33
2340 posts
Joined 11/2009
cpau33
2340 posts
Joined 11/2009
Time Link to 00:54:52
what are you doing here on the turn if he check shoves? good odds but you can be drawing dead (people at these stakes dont bluff a lot in 3bet pot I think). His value raising range is strong imo.
If he checks shove the turn, what range do you put vilain on? something like 77, JJ, QQ, AJ and some combo of slowplayed KK and AA make sens? or its wider than that?
Posted over 2 years ago
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linkwood
557 posts
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What did you do if vilain checks the turn? do you bet to take it down?
I assume you mean w/ the QJo float. I bet like 12-13 to try and get him to fold his air. If he c/c's I assume he has lots of flush draws, some of which are ace high, so I will be betting non-diamond, non-ace rivers as well.
Posted over 2 years ago
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linkwood
557 posts
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what are you doing here on the turn if he check shoves? good odds but you can be drawing dead (people at these stakes dont bluff a lot in 3bet pot I think). His value raising range is strong imo.
If he checks shove the turn, what range do you put vilain on? something like 77, JJ, QQ, AJ and some combo of slowplayed KK and AA make sens? or its wider than that?
His range could be wider/weaker than that (he slowplays full houses some % of the time). I'd say some boats, slow played overpairs, a couple top pairs, and a few spazz bluffs (just like two combos or something). But we're def not happy when he jams. We'd need somewhere in the neighborhood of 33% equity to call and I doubt we have that so it would have to be a fold.
Posted over 2 years ago
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cpau33
2340 posts
Joined 11/2009
I assume you mean w/ the QJo float. I bet like 12-13 to try and get him to fold his air. If he c/c's I assume he has lots of flush draws, some of which are ace high, so I will be betting non-diamond, non-ace rivers as well.
make lots of sens!
Great vids so far 
Posted over 2 years ago
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UknowMe
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Joined 07/2010
linkwood
557 posts
Joined 08/2008
Hi Linkwood thx for that vid 
could you please explain how these two stats are linked. The donkbet stat of 10% and the FCB stat of 37%.
U said he is continuing arround 60ish % of the time when he is seeing a flop, but than u only use the FCB stat.
Good point. However, the two stats are not as linked as one might think. The donk bet stat refers to the amount of the time the villain donk bets when he/she calls a pfr oop. The fcb stat refers to the amount of time the villain folds after calling a pfr and the other player cbets. So the fcb stat relies on the other player making an action, and is therefore not directly related to the donk bet stat.
However, for those times the villain calls a pfr oop the donk bet stat tells us how much of the time the villain allows the other player to even cbet. This should, in theory, raise his fcb stat, given that there is now a portion of his range that he wants to play aggressively that isn't in his "check to the pfr" range. Whether that means his range is stronger or weaker when he checks will vary from player to player. Perhaps the villain chooses to donk bet as a bluff a lot. That means that his checking range is stronger. If the villain donks when he's strong a lot, then that means his checking range is weaker.
It is also worth noting that if someone has a significantly high donk bet stat (say more than 10%) and a significantly low fcbet stat (less than 60% or so) then one of those ranges is very weak, and once you figure out which one you can exploit that player.
Posted about 2 years ago
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