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vilain is 37/18/1.6 over 220 hands, 3bet of 2%.

read:
-call raise w/J8 ip, shove over a pot sized cbet on J94r flop, 100bb

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 969535
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

UTG: $18.75
Hero (MP): $69.65
CO: $59.35
BTN: $31.35
SB: $41.80
BB: $55.35

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is MP with Q A
1 fold, Hero raises to $1.75, 2 folds, SB raises to $5, 1 fold, Hero calls $3.25

Flop: ($10.50) K 9 2 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $6, SB raises to $15

Final Pot: $22.50

Is it a bad call preflop?
And what is the best play on the flop?

when he checks, is it better to ck back and try to hit the flush because imo, he will cbet all his miss hands here. once i hit, i have good chances to stack him..

I would fold preflop. Against a 2% 3betting range, you are in terrible shape. If you assume that he is only checking to induce, a c/b on the flop is certainly a good option.

Preflop isn't the best call becuase of the possibility of you being dominated, but if you give him a range of QQ+, aks you still have 27% equity against that range meaning you need 3:1 on your money to justify a call. But youre in position so you can be a little lenient id say with a hand as easy to play as AQs against his three betting range you can check fold a lot of flops if you aren't in a situation like this but either way you have to call 3.25 to win 10.5 giving you almost exactly what you need to call that is even made more favorable by your position. I think basically your only option is to shove once you get to the flop because youve already invested 11 and putting him all in is only another pot sized bet. Flatting exposes too much of your stack and puts you in a ugly spot on a lot of turns. Now that youre here these are your equities against various parts of his range with an overbet shove if he calls:
against 6 combos of AA: (.373)(22.5+20.8) - (.627)(-20.8) = +$3.01
against 3 combos of KK: (.255)(22.5+20.8) - (.745)(-20.8) = -$4.46
against 3 combos of QQ: (.47)(22.5+20.8) - (.53)(-20.8) = +$9.33
Against 3 combos of AKs: (.37)(22.5+20.8) - (.63)(-20.8) = +$2.92

Personally I think with your read from the previous hand of his you can assume he will call with this entire range and if we assign proportional values to his range we get.
AA: 6/15 or 40%
KK: 3/15 or 20%
QQ: 3/15 or 20%
Aks: 3/15 or 20%

With AA having twice as much value as the rest of the range we double the other parts we can simply divide each other ev by 2 and add them together for your proportionally correct cumulative ev of : +$6.81 everytime you find yourself in this spot. Not the best of situations, but not the worst. The only way i think you could make a huge mistake in this situation is if you bet at a board that you didnt connect with in such a strong way when he checks to you.

Preflop isn't the best call becuase of the possibility of you being dominated, but if you give him a range of QQ+, aks you still have 27% equity against that range meaning you need 3:1 on your money to justify a call. But youre in position so you can be a little lenient id say with a hand as easy to play as AQs

Is it really that easy to play AQs against a 3betting range of 2%? If you hit your A and you get it in, most of the time you are in bad shape. If you hit your Q, the same is probably true. And in the few situations when you hit an A and he has QQ or KK, you cant be sure that all the money goes in. The A on the board will cetrtainly scare him.

I guess i meant easy to play as in there isnt much of a decision once the flop is out. Usually i wouldnt play fit or fold in a 3bpot but in position with a hand with so much drawing potential only calling off 6bbs when i know theres a good chance if i flop gin then he will stack off seems like its worth it. Am I completely off here? I know there isnt any guarantee that he will stack off but usually i see people with such tight three betting ranges just have a tendency to wanna stack off no matter what. Espcecially if they cbet a high frequency. Should i be looking at it another way?

I am getting much, much better at folding AQ to tight 3betting ranges. You really are boned post as when the money goes in you're often dominated.

When you say flopping gin, what boards exactly are you trying to hit?

Against a 3B range of QQ+,AK, hitting your ace isn't great because it's hard to get someone with KK/QQ to commit a stack on an ace high flop. A queen only helps again AK, which also won't commit on a queen high flop.

You're really only hoping to hit an AQx or QQx board, and even then you aren't guaranteed to stack someone who isn't crazy aggressive/stubborn with their big preflop hands.

Finally, AQ is really easy to play in a 3B pot because most of the time you just miss and fold to someone's tight 3B range. It's easy, but it's also hugely -EV.

am I only guy who is folding AK and QQ against 3-bet also at least OOP?
against unknown at nl25

am I only guy who is folding AK and QQ against 3-bet also at least OOP?
against unknown at nl25

Villain dependent. I'm certainly not flatting OOP with AK/QQ, but there are plenty of guys out there against whom you can 4B shove profitably. If you've seen people stack off 100BB with TT-JJ or AQ, I'm shoving all day and feeling pretty good about it.

Villain dependent. I'm certainly not flatting OOP with AK/QQ, but there are plenty of guys out there against whom you can 4B shove profitably. If you've seen people stack off 100BB with TT-JJ or AQ, I'm shoving all day and feeling pretty good about it.

but they just arent

honestly the board in question is the type of board id be looking for if the king were a j or below but i guess that's too optimistic to flat the three bet. Ive just been trying to focus a lot on pot odds and make calls based on whether my equity vs the perceived range is proportional. I guess in this instance the equity vs that range is pretty deceiving. I'm sure thats a pretty big leak in my game too

Preflop this is a non-steal situation and the guy is very loose-passive with a 3bet of 2% and not too short. You should be folding JJ and worse here, and 4betting-calling AA to 28bb. With QQ you can call and call on a non-A/K flop assuming he doesn't bet huge, with A high flops being worse for you than K high flops, and then folding to a turn cbet unless you have a set or he bets very small, I think. With AK you can call preflop and float the flop assuming he doesn't bet huge, and then bet the turn when checked to, to fold out AK, although it seems strange to be floating AK that often on the flop. With AK it's important to remember that facing QQ+/AK ... on an Ace high flop you beat 9 combos, tie 6 combos, and lose to 1 combo ... but on a King high flop you beat 6 combos, tie 6 combos, and lose to 4 combos ... so facing a turn shove with TPTK you will either tie or lose, which factors into the EV of turn and river actions, since if you are losing or tying, you better be tying enough of the time to make a +EV decision to call turn shoves. With KK you can call and then generally just call a flop bet, although if there is an A or K or he bets very small or very big then your action may change, and with KK I'm more confident on the turn facing a cbet although not sure yet if you should raise or call a turn cbet it depends on the situation. I'm not 4betting KK preflop because I'm not sure how this guy will handle QQ/AK facing a 4bet here, plus a call with strengthen your calling range. Fold AQs. Generally I'm thinking this guy has QQ+/AK although it's possible he may have JJ a very small portion of the time, and even less TT/AQ or some bluffs/dumb stuff, the guy's range is very very strong to 3bet here.

Check behind on the flop. If you bet then he will call or raise with KK+/AK which aren't folding to a triple barrel. QQ is calling a bet and possibly two. I doubt he has JJ but he isn't folding to a flop cbet. Overall I am very suspicious of the flop check, just take the free card since he is usually trapping you.

When you get raised it's clear he has KK+/AK. Your only outs are the flush card outs, and less if he has KK since you are drawing dead on the 9 of spades turn card. You have 8-9 outs for the turn card, that's 5.5 to 1 to hit 8.5 outs on the turn. You have 3.5 to 1 pot odds and 5.9 to 1 implied odds if a flush card comes on the turn since I doubt he can fold KK+/AK to a flush turn, and I'm accounting for the 9 of spades and KK as well.

Calling is better than folding to the raise, and I would recommend checking behind on the flop next time. Call a shove on a flush turn including the 9 of spades, but fold to a shove on an off suit Ace turn. But let's check to see if you should 3bet the flop, although I doubt it since I think his range is too strong plus dominates your hand as far as pair outs go.

...

By my calculations, calling the check-raise is better than shoving, because I believe you have no fold equity. Here are my calculations:

------

CALLING THE CHECK-RAISE:
Assuming:
-Opponent always has KK+/AK
-You call
-Opponent shoves all turn cards
-You call any spade turn including the 9 of spades
-$3 total rake in the hand, you pay half

08/47=17%(non-9 spade)
-95.45% = +$39.30 ... +$06.38
-04.55% = -$41.80 ... -$00.32
01/47=01%(9 of spades)
-73.19% = +$39.30 ... +$00.61
-26.81% = -$41.80 ... -$00.24
38/47=82%-$20 ... -$16.17

...
...=-$09.74 EV
......

3BETTING ALL-IN:
Assuming:
-Opponent always has KK+/AK
-You shove
-Opponent always calls
-$3 total rake in the hand, you pay half

-34.86% = +$39.30 ... +$13.70
-65.14% = -$41.80 ... -$27.23

...
... =-$13.53 EV

------

There were some basic assumptions I made, which may be off, various turn actions are not 100% clear, and there are very small rounding errors, but based on my calculations and estimate of his range, etc, I would call and not 3bet the flop. Fold to the preflop 3bet next time and check behind the flop next time. Good luck, Yojimgari

I agree that its better to fold preflop. Definitively, its a check back on the flop. by betting, we are not folding a lot of hand here because he will call at least one bet with a lot, if not his entire range here. When I check back, I can hit the world and take his entire stack. thx for all reply

Preflop this is a non-steal situation and the guy is very loose-passive with a 3bet of 2% and not too short. You should be folding JJ and worse here, and 4betting-calling AA to 28bb. With QQ you can call and call on a non-A/K flop assuming he doesn't bet huge, with A high flops being worse for you than K high flops, and then folding to a turn cbet unless you have a set or he bets very small, I think. With AK you can call preflop and float the flop assuming he doesn't bet huge, and then bet the turn when checked to, to fold out AK, although it seems strange to be floating AK that often on the flop. With AK it's important to remember that facing QQ+/AK ... on an Ace high flop you beat 9 combos, tie 6 combos, and lose to 1 combo ... but on a King high flop you beat 6 combos, tie 6 combos, and lose to 4 combos ... so facing a turn shove with TPTK you will either tie or lose, which factors into the EV of turn and river actions, since if you are losing or tying, you better be tying enough of the time to make a +EV decision to call turn shoves. With KK you can call and then generally just call a flop bet, although if there is an A or K or he bets very small or very big then your action may change, and with KK I'm more confident on the turn facing a cbet although not sure yet if you should raise or call a turn cbet it depends on the situation. I'm not 4betting KK preflop because I'm not sure how this guy will handle QQ/AK facing a 4bet here, plus a call with strengthen your calling range. Fold AQs. Generally I'm thinking this guy has QQ+/AK although it's possible he may have JJ a very small portion of the time, and even less TT/AQ or some bluffs/dumb stuff, the guy's range is very very strong to 3bet here.

Check behind on the flop. If you bet then he will call or raise with KK+/AK which aren't folding to a triple barrel. QQ is calling a bet and possibly two. I doubt he has JJ but he isn't folding to a flop cbet. Overall I am very suspicious of the flop check, just take the free card since he is usually trapping you.

When you get raised it's clear he has KK+/AK. Your only outs are the flush card outs, and less if he has KK since you are drawing dead on the 9 of spades turn card. You have 8-9 outs for the turn card, that's 5.5 to 1 to hit 8.5 outs on the turn. You have 3.5 to 1 pot odds and 5.9 to 1 implied odds if a flush card comes on the turn since I doubt he can fold KK+/AK to a flush turn, and I'm accounting for the 9 of spades and KK as well.

Calling is better than folding to the raise, and I would recommend checking behind on the flop next time. Call a shove on a flush turn including the 9 of spades, but fold to a shove on an off suit Ace turn. But let's check to see if you should 3bet the flop, although I doubt it since I think his range is too strong plus dominates your hand as far as pair outs go.

...

By my calculations, calling the check-raise is better than shoving, because I believe you have no fold equity. Here are my calculations:

------

CALLING THE CHECK-RAISE:
Assuming:
-Opponent always has KK+/AK
-You call
-Opponent shoves all turn cards
-You call any spade turn including the 9 of spades
-$3 total rake in the hand, you pay half

08/47=17%(non-9 spade)
-95.45% = +$39.30 ... +$06.38
-04.55% = -$41.80 ... -$00.32
01/47=01%(9 of spades)
-73.19% = +$39.30 ... +$00.61
-26.81% = -$41.80 ... -$00.24
38/47=82%-$20 ... -$16.17

...
...=-$09.74 EV
......

3BETTING ALL-IN:
Assuming:
-Opponent always has KK+/AK
-You shove
-Opponent always calls
-$3 total rake in the hand, you pay half

-34.86% = +$39.30 ... +$13.70
-65.14% = -$41.80 ... -$27.23

...
... =-$13.53 EV

------

There were some basic assumptions I made, which may be off, various turn actions are not 100% clear, and there are very small rounding errors, but based on my calculations and estimate of his range, etc, I would call and not 3bet the flop. Fold to the preflop 3bet next time and check behind the flop next time. Good luck, Yojimgari

hey this was a great post I think people dont try to run the numbers enough in the forums so i really appreciate when someone takes the time to. I think my numbers were a litte off from yours. Ive only just started doing ev calcs in the past month so im sure it was my mistake. since i didnt see ur work broken down i couldnt really check it against my own, where were u got ur final numbers from. I did the ev for an overbet shove against AA and KK and weighted within a range of hands, (because AA is 2 times as likely to be dealt given that there is a K on the board)and i thought the EV of a shove against those two hands would be +6.02vs AA and -4.46 against KK. Any ideas where one of us went wrong?

I don't think the flat is as bad as you guys think as long as hero isn't going to stack off with top pair facing lots of aggression although it's still pretty borderline.

I wouldn't take the 3bet stat as gospel with only 220 hands. The guy has 80bb so if calling is a mistake it's less of a mistake than if he had 100bb.

Flop is a check back though since even a slightly wider 3bet range has only a very small check/fold range here.