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Top two pair facing big river raise


jskintauy

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30 posts
Joined 07/2009

Hi All,

This hand is from a site that can't be converted. Sorry. It is .25/.50 6 max NL.

I am fairly new on this table (been on it for about 15 mins) and I only have details on a couple of my opponents. So far in the session I have played very tight so I should have that table image, but who knows if some of the other players are even aware of this after such a short time.

I am in the C/O with AcJc. It is checked to me and I put in a 3x raise to $1.50. I have $57 behind. The only player that has been playing somewhat aggressively on this table is in the BB and he calls. He is large stack on the table with about $130. (Note, this is a player I don't really have stats or much of a read on yet - maybe I could describe him as SLAG but that is about it)

So there is $3.25 in the pot.

The flop is

As Jd 4h

This is pretty good! My opponent checks and I bet $2.50 and he quickly calls, leaving the pot at $8.25. The turn is a rather harmless looking 6c so there is a rainbow board with no obvious str8 draws. I decide to bet the pot on the turn since I believe I have the best hand and have reason to believe he has something decent to have called my flop C-bet. I bet $8.25. He immediately calls.

The river brings the Kc. This card does't alarm me too much because you have to believe he would have re-raised pre flop with AK. I bet $12.50 into the $16.50 pot.

He immediately pushes all in. I think for a moment about what he might have (thinking a good chance he flopped a set and SP'd, it, or he hit a 2nd pair that I can beat) I am not sure how to evaluate this. I have roughly $30 behind and decide I am good often enough to call. Was calling the right decision?

Thanks ahead.

Jim the Poker Dog

Posted over 2 years ago

Joe Tall

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Founder
6970 posts
Joined 11/2006

I think you can bet bigger on the flop and how much did your opponent shove at the end?

There are enough 2-pair combos you beat and you also beat bluffs to call, I'd say.

Posted over 2 years ago

jsnipes28

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67 posts
Joined 06/2007

Yojimgari

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2354 posts
Joined 01/2009

Thanks for the good details. If you say villain is sLAG, I'm assuming he's like 27/23 maybe.

$1.50 is good preflop. $2.50 is good on the flop. Him snap calling generally means a weak made hand or a draw. There is no flush draw and I doubt he has a wheel draw. He probably has a medium/weak Ace, or a Jack, or is trying to hit a broadway gutshot. If for some reason he is tricking you, then he has 44/AJ/A4s or maybe AA/JJ/AK/AQ although those would 3bet preflop generally but maybe he was trapping with them as well.

You bet the pot on the turn, I would bet 70% pot. He can't snap call a broadway gutshot or a Jack or a weak/medium Ace here. Maybe he has a medium Ace, possibly that picked up two pair(A6s). On the other hand there is still a slight chance he has trapped you with 44/AJ/A4s/AA/JJ/AK/AQ.

You have to put in $30 to win a pot that will be about $117.25, you have to be good 25.6% of the time to make the call.

Here's a wide range for villain:
AA,JJ,44,AJs+,A6s,A4s,AJo+
You have 50.0% equity.

On the other hand, even if he was trapping with AQ/AJ before the river, I'm not sure if he'd shove, so here's a tighter range:
AA,JJ,44,AKs,A6s,A4s,AKo
You have 21.4% equity.

Also, maybe he doesn't have A6s/A4s in his range preflop:
AA,JJ,44,AKs,AKo
You have 0.0% equity.

This question is hard to answer, I think it'll depend more on what his stats are, like if he's a 27/23 or a 50/40 or 80/10 or what. I'm not sure yet that this is a clear call. We are hoping that villain has AQ/AJ/A6s/A4s and played the hand this way with those hands. I'd like to hear more discussion about this hand. I think we need more information about this villain if possible? Good luck, Yojimgari

Posted over 2 years ago

jskintauy

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30 posts
Joined 07/2009

Hi All,

Thanks for the detailed analysis Yojimgari. His bet on the end put me all in for an additional roughly $30 as you pointed out, so I only have to be right on the call (as you pointed out) 25% of the time. His numbers looked to be about 30 VPIP 20 PFR.

I did not have a huge amount of history with this player so it is impossible to be sure, but it sure seemed like he would have raised with AA, AK, AKs so I figured it was easy to discount those hands. I would definitely have put him on a wider range. With the wider range, as you point out, I have plenty of equity. I certainly believe he was capable of calling down with A4 or A6 but the shove I found really confusing. I played the hand in such a way that it looked like I had AK, AQ, AJ and the K on the river would have been pretty scary. So why the all in? I am not sure (not enough time) he is a maniac....and how likely is this to be a bluff? He couldn't possibly think I was bluffing given the way the hand was played, so he was expecting me to call.

If he expects me to call, realistically his range becomes much smaller. So what would he have called pre-flop with (and not re-raised) that would have me beat. 44 seemed like a logical choice. Perhaps he peeled one on the flop for a small bet hoping to hit a 6 with a pair of 6's. Another possibility is that he played a hand like Q10 which seemed very unlikely to me given the action. He also might have called with AJ (which I didn't even consider until after the hand) So, I am still not sure a call was a great idea.

Jim

Posted over 2 years ago

Hielko

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Coach
4384 posts
Joined 07/2008

I think it's very true that villain is almost never bluffing here, and that he is going for value. The thing is of course that's hard to find hands in his range that have you beat, it's basically only 44 and once in a while you see AA or AK. Since this is such a small range, and villian is unknown/seems on the laggy side I wouldn't be able to find a fold here.

If you have a better read and know for sure that villian isn't the type to spaz out often, he can handread and a decent player you can probably find a fold here.

Posted over 2 years ago

Yojimgari

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2354 posts
Joined 01/2009

It's still hard for me to say what to do here. I think if he's tighter than he may be more likely to have you beat here, and if he's some 80/10 he could be messing around with a weak hand I guess. But on the other hand maybe the 80/10 slowplays preflop and postflop and plays really weird so I'm still not sure. Let's see if we can get other DC coaches in here and see what they say. Good luck, Yojimgari

Posted over 2 years ago




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