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10NL pocket 99 facing turn min raise on 2 flush board


PokerPilot

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Villain is 13/11/6 with an Agg. Freq 46% over small sample of 84 hands. No other reads. Should I have came over the top of his raise on the turn?

$10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 169756
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BTN: $9.10
Hero (SB): $25.63
BB: $14.93
UTG: $1.35
MP: $25.62
CO: $13.70

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is SB with 9 Spade 9 Diamond
2 folds, CO calls $0.10, 1 fold, Hero raises to $0.55, BB calls $0.45, 1 fold

Flop: ($1.20) T Heart A Diamond 3 Heart (2 players)
Hero checks, BB checks

Turn: ($1.20) 5 Diamond (2 players)
Hero bets $0.85, BB raises to $1.80

Posted over 2 years ago

PokerPilot

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My bad...not a min raise. Thoughts on this hand?

Posted over 2 years ago

krumpy

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I struggle with these mid PPs OOP as well. Do you have 3bet stats on him?

Not a ton of hands but with really tight players like this guy a call makes me weight his range heavily toward small PPs. Against this opponent I'm betting the flop every time. I think he will let you know right away if you're beat.

The turn is a fold in my opinion even though his line is bizzare. Can't see him SPing a set on this board as it's drawy and he surely wants to get value from an A. With that being said I feel that he's rarely bluffing here. I think it's a fold. Make a note on him.

Posted over 2 years ago

oh hai

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As played I think it's a fold. This guy is a nit, and I don't think giving nits a whole lot of action is a great idea.

Is there a reason you didn't c-bet this flop?

Posted over 2 years ago

PokerPilot

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His 3-bet % is 3.6, but doesn't this only refer to Preflop?

Posted over 2 years ago

delcrossb

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I c-bet the flop to rep an ace and fold out his hands with T's that are ahead of us here. Turn is definitely a fold since he probably isn't pulling a move with less than an ace here.

Posted over 2 years ago

PokerPilot

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Thinking back, I have no clue why I didn't c-bet it. I think I was going to give him a chance to stab at the Ace and check raise him to see where I stood, but that is some bass ackwards thinking, so basically I screwed up when I checked the flop.

Posted over 2 years ago

delcrossb

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check raise him to see where I stood, but that is some bass ackwards thinking



I am glad you realize your mistake here.

If you are going to check raise and he calls it doesn't give you a ton of information because if he calls you aren't in good shape, if he folds you probably had the best hand and didn't really make anything on it, and if he 3bets you have to fold.

Also in a spot like this where the ace is off suit on a two tone board, if he is continuing on he can very often have the NFD which gives him a lot to continue with.

Posted over 2 years ago

krumpy

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Yes 3bet only refers to PF, but can help you narrow his range a bit (ie he's prob 3 betting AK).

Posted over 2 years ago

mjifi

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I think not c-betting in this spot against a nit is completely fine. You are never getting called by worse, he is never folding better (unless you barrel but since it's bvb and he might have more Ax in his range then he'd normally have it's probably not gonna be very profitable) and most of his draws are gonna have 40-50% equity, so it's not like you can protect your hand from em. The only good thing about c-betting is that he might fold a gutter with 2 overs, which is kewl but not much.

But when you check, he might think you are just giving up and he is gonna stab at it, but being a nit that he is, he is just gonna stab once and give up, so we pick up an extra bet from him when he has nothing at all.

Also when we check and he checks back we can bet some turns (cards <T, any T,A,3 and may be a JDiamond, making it look like we picked up a diamond draw) and expect him to get suspicious and look us up with somelower PP's.

Posted over 2 years ago

oh hai

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I think not c-betting in this spot against a nit is completely fine.



I strongly disagree with this sentiment.

This is a lot like the pocket 5s hand in the DJ Sensei WWJTD episode. To quote Joe, "this is NLHE people, it's hard to hit flops." We have a pair and it stands to be the best hand on the flop. If he gives us a ton of action we can let go.

It's very difficult to play draws OOP, and if our villain wants to try, we should let him. Just because the board is two-tone doesn't mean he has a draw. What about all the Ts and other PPs that beat us but that we get to fold out by c-betting?

edit: I forgot we are OOP. Oh well, I still think it's a c-bet lol.

Posted over 2 years ago

mjifi

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you do realize he is not folding Tx or bigger pp's to our c-bet?

Posted over 2 years ago

krumpy

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I absolutely think this guy is folding Tx prob even a hand like KQ, which has great equity against us. The stats are limited but until proven otherwise he's a setminer. Bet if he calls or raises give up. 9/10 I think you take it down and when he does play back at you don't give him action w/o the nuts.

Posted over 2 years ago

oh hai

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you do realize he is not folding Tx or bigger pp's to our c-bet?



This may be true. For the sake of argument, let's just agree that we never get him to fold a better pair with 1 bet, which I think is what you are saying.

If this is true, why are we betting the turn? A better course of action would be to check it down.

Posted over 2 years ago

regionx8

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Joined 08/2008

I would cbet this board and probably give up if called. I agree w/ everyone that you're not really going to get called by worse and "probably" won't fold better but are we really going to profitably check call any bets on any street against a nit? Also if we check and he bets we could be folding the best hand. I really don't see a problem with ending the hand on the flop.

Posted over 2 years ago




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