I'm surprised by how much I get called when I never thought people would. So I've started trying to integrate a lot of value over-betting into my game.
This guy is a 40/2 passive fish. I suspect his range is much wider though since he limps 80% of small blinds.
Poker Stars $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 896744
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter
SB: $11.98
Hero (BB): $5.29
UTG: $6.03
MP: $13.07
CO: $2.69
BTN: $6.66
Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is BB with K
9
4 folds, SB calls $0.03, Hero raises to $0.22, SB calls $0.17
Flop: ($0.44) K
A
8
(2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks
Turn: ($0.44) A
(2 players)
SB bets $0.05, Hero raises to $0.38, SB calls $0.33
River: ($1.20) A
(2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $2, SB calls $2
By the river his range is narrowed down to any Ax, a few Kx, all pocket pairs up to KK, flushes, quads and some random air.
In all I estimated:
44 quads
166 Full houses, of which I beat 135 (pp's and random 8 connectors down to 85s+86o)
18 flushes
So I'm beating 67% of his range.
I'm pretty sure I can get spite calls out of flushes if I bet the right amount, and of coarse 8 are folding to anything but a shove (and even then who knows).
So whats your thoughts on over-betting this river vs a fish?
