First, I would like to thank you for the wonderful series that you've given us beginners of poker! 3 years after release (maybe even longer) there are still people recommending and watching your videos.
Second, I'm wondering a bit about the calculations made in around the 45 minute mark in the vid. It's when you calculate the minimum of times he needs to fold for the shove to be +EV with the Fold EQ formula.
When you calculate the EV for the fold respectively for the call, you are already making the assumption that he is folding a certain percent of the hands. If we would change the percentage of hands he is calling with, our EV for when villain is actually calling are shove will change.
Therefore, when you estimate that he would only need to fold 3%-ish of his hands, you are calculating that with the EV when villain is actually calling with 32,5% (39/120). Thus, your not regarding the fact that the EV for call will change depending on the percentage of him calling. Your equity and hence your EV for calling is certainly different if he is calling the bet with all of his hands.
For example, let's use the most obscure example when villain is only calling with his 3 combos of TT, or 1/40=2,5%. Putting that into the formula without changing the EV for call would give the following:
EV = 370*0.975+(-12,85)*0.025 = 360,43$
However, our equity if he's calling range is TT+ is certainly not 43%-ish. Pokerstove calculates our equity to about 25,55%. Hence, the EV(call) is: =0.2555*(2005)-875 or -362,7$
This gives the Fold eq EV according to the formula:
EV= 370*0.975+(-362,7)*0.025 = 351,68$
Which is not a big difference, but there is one. There will also be bigger differences when you use other percentages.
Also, against his cbet-range, we're actually a favorite (not 43% as mentioned in the movie. I think it's a mistake, since you say that we have 43% equity against both his c-betrange and his c-bet&call range. Therefore, we wouldn't mind him calling 100% of his hands. And again, with him calling all of his hands, we cannot use the calculated EV that was made on an assumption from what his calling range was.
How to calculate how much he will need to fold for our shove to be -EV. Since we have +EV even if he folds 100% or 0% there must be something in between. Otherwise, we are always expecting +EV regarding his foldpercentage. How to set up this calculation I won't think about more since it's almost midnight here in sweden and I have work tomorrow.
I might look like a big fool writing this wall of text if it turns out that I am mistaken, but aren't the things mentioned above correct?