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Party Poker $100.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 22264
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SB: $91.04
Hero (BB): $162.21
UTG: $10.68
CO: $231.73
BTN: $91.80

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BB with K K
2 folds, BTN calls $1, SB calls $0.50, Hero raises to $6, BTN calls $5, SB calls $5

Flop: ($18.00) 8 7 T (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $15.00, BTN raises to $39, SB folds, Hero ????

Final Pot: $48.00

no history, no reads, we have K K... against a 55/9/1.52 guy this is an easy fold right?

Easy shove against such a guy 90bb deep. Right?

Easy shove against such a guy 90bb deep. Right?

that's it? cos he is 90bb's this is an easy shove? what if he is 100bb's?

that's it? cos he is 90bb's this is an easy shove? what if he is 100bb's?

eh.. I meant 90bb as in not any deep, not 200bb, not 300bb. It's hard and probably not good to get away from an overpair against a reasonably aggressive guy (1.52 is quite much for 55vpip) esp. on a board where he could very well be raise/calling with a lot of draws (and not just Xc9c).

that's it? cos he is 90bb's this is an easy shove? what if he is 100bb's?

What matters here is stack/pot imo. If the pot was 9.5 and we cbet 7 he might raise/fold AT which would suck for our hand. We'd need 45% equity against the range he's willing to stack with without actually knowing what it was.

However, here most of the money is already in the pot. The only question is whether we have the 37% equity against his current range that we need. We could stove this but most of his range is draws, there are some some worse made hands he could have, we have decent equity against 2 pair and we always have the backdoor flushdraw. So my guess is that yes, we have more than enough equity to get it in here.

While I would generally agree that folding here is probably what I would do, I'm not sure if it's correct. If you give him a range of 77+ and a couple flush draws you're about even, if he's only ever got sets here, you're in terrible shape.

My point however is that if you don't think you will get it in here, why bet so big? If he's folding he will fold to like 10-12$ as well and the pot is pretty big anyway so you'll get it in by the river if you think you can value bet 3 streets.

While I would generally agree that folding here is probably what I would do, I'm not sure if it's correct. If you give him a range of 77+ and a couple flush draws you're about even, if he's only ever got sets here, you're in terrible shape.

My point however is that if you don't think you will get it in here, why bet so big? If he's folding he will fold to like 10-12$ as well and the pot is pretty big anyway so you'll get it in by the river if you think you can value bet 3 streets.

The reason for the big flop bet is the Villain is a loose passive fish, who is likely to call against odds with a draw. We want the opponent to make as big of a mistake as possible.

With regard to the hand he needs a set, J9 or 96 to have us crushed.
TT would probably raise preflop. 88 is within the 9% raising range, but given how passive Villain is it seems more likely that he will not raise that. 96 isn't really something anyone limp-calls preflop. And against all other holdings we have decent equity, so I doubt it's a mistake to get it in.

I havn't re-checked Squirrels math, but we certainly have more than 37% EV against his range.

He is 55/9/1.52.. so that looks fairly aggressive postflop with such a high VPIP. He could limp/call with A LOT imo. There is 96, J9, 88, a ton of trash etc etc

On the board are so many draws, pair + gs and other funny things that he thinks are good.
So I aggree with opinion of nakke & SquirrelsUnite. I just shove against this guy most of the time and stack off kinda happy for 90bb here.

There was an interesting video that described nearly this exact scenario. I don't remember the video nor the author, but the situation was AA on something like T98f where you could be up against the nuts drawing dead or flipping. The other neat thing is that if you wait for a safe turn, your equity actually goes down.

I've partially re-created that here... I'm not going try to guess his entire range, but this stove should give you an idea of what the video was talking about... in this case you have the Kc. In the video example, he did not have the backdoor flush.

Bad equity

Board: 8s 7c Tc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 32.986% 32.01% 00.97% 31691 965.00 { KcKs }
Hand 1: 67.014% 66.04% 00.97% 65379 965.00 { QQ-77, AcQc, AcJc, Ac9c, Ac8c, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c, QcJc, Qc9c, Qc8c, J9s, Jc8c, Jc6c, T8s-T7s, 96s, 87s, J9o, T8o-T7o, 96o, 87o }

Wait till "safe" turn card, and even worse equity.

Board: 8s 7c Tc 2d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 30.773% 30.77% 00.00% 1354 0.00 { KcKs }
Hand 1: 69.227% 69.23% 00.00% 3046 0.00 { QQ-77, AcQc, AcJc, Ac9c, Ac8c, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c, QcJc, Qc9c, Qc8c, J9s, Jc8c, Jc6c, T8s-T7s, 96s, 87s, J9o, T8o-T7o, 96o, 87o }

Just an interesting thought. Play with the range.

While I would generally agree that folding here is probably what I would do, I'm not sure if it's correct. If you give him a range of 77+ and a couple flush draws you're about even, if he's only ever got sets here, you're in terrible shape.

My point however is that if you don't think you will get it in here, why bet so big? If he's folding he will fold to like 10-12$ as well and the pot is pretty big anyway so you'll get it in by the river if you think you can value bet 3 streets.

the reason why i bet big was to get value from worse one pair hands and protection against draws since he was fishy... also i din't want to have second thoughts on my move like when i bet small and he raises, i'm like... "why did he raise... cos he thinks i'm weak?" then i end up shoving with a hand that's behind...

the reason why i bet big was to get value from worse one pair hands and protection against draws since he was fishy... also i din't want to have second thoughts on my move like when i bet small and he raises, i'm like... "why did he raise... cos he thinks i'm weak?" then i end up shoving with a hand that's behind...

While I would agree that betting bigger as protection against draws might be a good thing, I'm not sure someone playing 55/9 is going to fold a draw anyway. And this might be a leak in my game, but I generally don't expect someone playing such a loose passive game preflop to be raising just because someone bets a few dollars less.

In my experience he's more likely to play his own hand. Since people seem to disagree with me, never mind.

Oh and by the way albell, he's actually got position on us so he didn't limp-call or is likely to have raised TT preflop.

Oh and by the way albell, he's actually got position on us so he didn't limp-call or is likely to have raised TT preflop.

"BTN calls $1, ..., Hero raises $6. BTN calls $5" That's a limp/call in my book

Why do you think it is unlikely that he would have openraised TT on the button? I don't understand that.

it's a close spot, but closer to fold than a ship imo

While I would agree that betting bigger as protection against draws might be a good thing, I'm not sure someone playing 55/9 is going to fold a draw anyway. And this might be a leak in my game, but I generally don't expect someone playing such a loose passive game preflop to be raising just because someone bets a few dollars less.

In my experience he's more likely to play his own hand. Since people seem to disagree with me, never mind.

I think you make a really good point here. Betting big here when you don't want to play for stacks is just wasting money.

No, don't fold!

I dont know anything about this players tendencies but I would never fold kings in your spot.

I think your opponent often will have a draw. with a nine and maybe a pair? He is playing all those connected hands preflop if he's got 55 vpip. Also he might be raising and geting it in with a worse pair like a Ten with a good kicker? He might not feel like he can call on such a drawy board and let draws hit if he has a good ten, I dont know. But if he is going to see the flopp with so many junk hands he will so rarely have you beat, dont fold kings.

Even when you are behind you have equity aswell. He can have a hand like 2 pair in wich case folding would be correct but you would still have about 30% equity against a 2 pair hand.

You have a monster, get the money in.