DJ Sensei
3163 posts
Joined 10/2007
why not re-raise all in here?
I don't think theres much value in a raise. His range should be polarized to strong hands (that beat us and snapcall a raise) and bluffs (that lose to us but snapfold to a raise). The only hands that we would gain from by raising would be second-best made hands like JJ or TT, and I really don't expect him to have those ever.
Posted over 3 years ago
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benwb
4 posts
Joined 07/2008
Frank rizzo
13 posts
Joined 02/2010
Time Link to 00:59:13
http://www.deucescracked.com/videos/79-Episode-Three?seek=3541
After he calls the min raise on the flop we can safely assume he has a hand with just a little showdown value, Or draws which is just 89 and 56. Why are we inducing when his range doesn't have many bluff hands compared to hands where he wants to get to a cheap showdown? Also that turn 7 is bad because he definitely plays a 7 like that. Am I correct thinking that the only hand he bluffs here on the river are 89 and 56? If that is true, doesn't he have value hands alot more than bluff, therefore making this call -EV.
I would greatly appreciate a reply. Thanks.
Posted over 3 years ago
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DJ Sensei
3163 posts
Joined 10/2007
http://www.deucescracked.com/videos/79-Episode-Three?seek=3541
After he calls the min raise on the flop we can safely assume he has a hand with just a little showdown value, Or draws which is just 89 and 56. Why are we inducing when his range doesn't have many bluff hands compared to hands where he wants to get to a cheap showdown? Also that turn 7 is bad because he definitely plays a 7 like that. Am I correct thinking that the only hand he bluffs here on the river are 89 and 56? If that is true, doesn't he have value hands alot more than bluff, therefore making this call -EV.
I would greatly appreciate a reply. Thanks.
Well, first of all I think he can show up with several more draws than just 65 and 98. Because the pot is small and we only minraised him, he could call with gutshots like J9, J8, 85, 63, 53 or even simple overcard hands like KQ, KJ, QJ (perhaps with backdoor flush draws). And lets not forget that 86 is a double gutter! He could also easily show up with any smaller pair, because he just can't bring himself to fold it to a minraise. Now he probably shouldn't be betting the river with those kind of hands, but thats not to say he won't do it sometimes.
All things considered, I think we're definitely good here at least 40% of the time, so the river call is correct.
Posted over 3 years ago
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Prologion
2079 posts
Joined 03/2010
Time Link to 00:06:15
I am not sure about your flopplay here tbh.
Sure I got your reasoning, but
1.) Pretty often everybody has just pure air and you will make fold it almost always ->on the other side it is an OK-Board to cbet -> hence by checking you would extract value from this air. (huge part of Villains` ranges imo, tbh)
2.) your describes scenarion (PFA cbets and SB C/Raises - and now you would almost overrep your hand bycalling, what is true) is possible, but just unlikely and will not happen too often (to assume the probabilities for each scenarios is imp very importent).
3.) When he has a strong King, he will anyways val.bet at least 2, often 3 streets.
From a weak King you will not get too often 3 streets imo.
Posted almost 3 years ago
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