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villan was 16/6 over 158 hands with 20% wtsd over 20 samples. and 53% afq. As played what do you guys think so far, and what line do we like on the river.

Poker Stars $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 587565
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

CO: $11.15
BTN: $9.25
SB: $1.65
Hero (BB): $14.80
UTG: $11.15
MP: $4.55

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BB with J Q
2 folds, CO raises to $0.30, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.65) K 9 T (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $0.30, Hero raises to $1.30, CO calls $1

Turn: ($3.25) T (2 players)
Hero bets $2, CO calls $2

River: ($7.25) Q (2 players)

Final Pot: $7.25

I dont think a guy with those stats ever shows us AJ if we look at the preceding action, I dont think the Qd on the river changes anything. .

It might seem a little weak, but in the blinds against this guy I would probably 3bet or muck QJ's. Hes only raised 10 hands out of a sample of 158, hes not stealing a lot from the CO, hes limping or value raising. I dont think QJs holds up well against his range, so most of our equity will be fold equity, we can 3bet and look to take control on the flop.

I dont know that I would c/r the flop for as much as that, we pretty much blow him off of the air and weaker part of his range, when we flop the nuts we dont want that.

When he calls the c/r I pretty much think set, 2 pair, KQ or AK, I would still bet the turn but fold to a raise. Once he calls the turn bet, then I'm stuck I dont know if I want to b/f or just give up and c/f, I dont know about a b/f as were pretty much pot commited after we bet, so we'd have to call and say hello to his boat.

this looks like a great spot to bet/fold $2.5.

Not sure about your b/f of $2.50.

After we bet $2.50 the pot is $9.75, villian has $7.55 remaining. If villian jams then the pot is $17.30 and we have to put in 5.05 to call @ 3.43:1.

Were very nearly getting 3.5:1 to call, I think that puts us in a position where were crying as we call, but calling is pretty much manditory.

does he really jam worse? 16/6 would lead me to believe he's not very imaginative postflop so he would not bluff too much, and he's nitty so he won't jam with just a Jx.

does he really jam worse? 16/6 would lead me to believe he's not very imaginative postflop so he would not bluff too much, and he's nitty so he won't jam with just a Jx.

I disagree here. Guys like this arent calling 2 streets after getting check raised on the flop with a gut shot. He has a made hand on the flop and a set 3 bets here with a draw heavy board. I am leading the turn for 2.75-3 and planning on putting the 5 or 6 dollars he has left behind all in for value on the river against AK or KQ. Ive noticed that weak tags will rarely fold top pair b/c they play so few hands.

Well 1st of all we don't know for sure if he never calls with a set on the flop. He's 16/6 so he's not really a standard tag. For all we know, he could be putting us on exactly a straight.

I don't think AK/KQ is going to jam a 4straight river. That's kind of stretching it.

But on second thought, given the great odds, I guess a call can't ever be too bad. We can't expect to be ahead very often in this spot, it's either a split or we're behind. But maybe there's a small chance he spazzes out for some reason.