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He plays 16/12 Agr 4 over 840 hands kinda of a TAG reg cant work out his range on the river to take this line????????
is this a fold a good % of the time?

Poker Stars $25.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 581913
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BB: $20.35
Hero (UTG): $30.10
MP: $25.65
CO: $24.55
BTN: $23.90
SB: $26.25

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is UTG with A A
Hero raises to $1, MP calls $1, 2 folds, SB calls $0.90, 1 fold

Flop: ($3.25) Q 6 J (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $2.70, MP folds, SB calls $2.70

Turn: ($8.65) 3 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $6.15, SB calls $6.15

River: ($20.95) 6 (2 players)
SB bets $16.40??????????

Thanks Jacob

Oh man, sick spot. The 6 is obviously a nice card for us because it counterfeits him if he has QJ. I only really see him showing up with AsQs or KsQs for flushes here, but I'm not that worried about the flush here. I'd expect him to defend his AsQs / KsQs on the flop with the straight and flush draw out there. I think that a A6 or 6x is equally unlikely. So if he's got a hand here, I think it's most likely a flopped set. I think QQ 3 bets pre a lot of the time, so I think we're looking at JJ, 66 (obv 66 unlikely given only 1 combo). I'd probably call this off here and expect to see bluffs, KK, AQ, QJ enough for this to be profitable. If he shows up with JJ or QQ, make a note. If he's got a flush, god bless him.

hey yeah this is a weird spot.

i think you are most likely beat given that this guy is a tag and his line looks real strong. but given the odds you are getting (at a rough look about 2.3 to 1) i dont think a call is to far from neutral EV.

What I would suggest if you are intested is to go through the showdown hands you have of this villian and see what hands they show up at showdown.

Thanks for the feed back, erby would JJ or 66 raise the flop given its that wet flop, and my thinking regards to a flush was that i have the As and a tag would not draw to a non nut flush on the turn given the price and my action but i maybe way off?
esporro would this be a spot that you close your eyes and call the river?, or is their a way to break down his range and find the answer out to make the right call or fold, in the short time?

Thanks Jacob

I think a tag would peel the turn with KsQs? Set seems unlikely as even if he didn't raise flop he would surely raise turn with 2 fd's out there (and a 4 AF).

Horrible spot. c/c, c/c big lead is so often a big hand I would probably fold unless I had seen him take the line with bluffs before or I knew he was capable of big bluff generally. 16/12's don't usually have big bluffing ranges.....

I would fold here unless I have a read. Also check his aggr freq % on the river, might be usefull if you already have 850 hands on him.

I have to agree with spotDEspot that a 16/12 guy wouldn't bluff away his stack on the river.

I think this is purely value because he knows you're strong --> you raised from UTG, bet the flop into 3 ppl and almost pot the turn. So I think he's putting you on a very strong range here and wants you to make a mistake and call here. JJ would suit his play perfectly imo.

Thanks guys for the feed back..

This is a comfortable fold, and you should feel good about your play if you make it. It's not an easy one, but it is right.

Thanks for the feed back, erby would JJ or 66 raise the flop given its that wet flop, and my thinking regards to a flush was that i have the As and a tag would not draw to a non nut flush on the turn given the price and my action but i maybe way off?
esporro would this be a spot that you close your eyes and call the river?, or is their a way to break down his range and find the answer out to make the right call or fold, in the short time?

Thanks Jacob

I really think that you would have gotten a raise on the turn from JJ or 66, but what other hands could he have? I think the only reasonable other hand is KsQs. I don't see how we put him on exactly KsQs and fold here. I think it's close enough to a call here and if we're going to start folding when our opponent can only rep exactly one hand, we're going to be very exploitable IMHO. I think if you fold here, expect him to start playing back at you very light.

How do you know he would raise 66 or JJ on the flop? Just because you would raise those hands on a wet board doesn't mean he would. Or maybe he would most of the time but decided not to this time.

How often and what type of hands is he 3betting? If you think he might call from the sb with KQ then that makes a lot of sense here. Is he flatting with Q10s or QJ (less likely here), those make sense too.

If you have like 800 hands on this guy then you should probably be able to tell if this is a spot he gets out of line in. Generally I would assume that this isn't really a spot he would get out of line in.

The only reason this isn't a snapcall is because he is a nit and nits don't voluntarily shovel money in the pot without the nuts. I kind of expect KsQs, AsQs or some mind-boggling slowplay here. Still, it's only a few combos and we are getting pretty decent odds.

vs any other type of player I'd be snapping this, as there are so many busted draws out there and so few legimitate valuehands

Thanks for the replys guys i undrstand what you are saying i did call do you want me to post the result some of you are spot on

yea pm me the results, might be interesting

You can click the link in the OP where it says View Hand XXXXX and it will show you the complete HH

What's his 3bet and call open stats from the SB? With 800+ hands, your poisitional stats should start to be relevant. The fact that you raised UTG makes most players less likely to 3bet hands like JJ/QQ, so we can't really rule those out unless his call open is very low. You have the As, so AQss is not possible. How often does he ch/R the flop? Have you seen him flat call a big flopped hand/slowplay or raise a FD? Have you seen him lead the river like this before and get to showdown? As you can see, this decision is really read-dependent. TBH, there aren't a lot of hands that take this line in a 16/12's range, and they are rarely bluffing.