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AA, is folding river ok here?


nolcat

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126 posts
Joined 01/2010

villain is 14/11 over 183...
i cant figure out if he is a fish or a decent player sorry.

Full Tilt Poker $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 581183
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BB: $25.00
Hero (UTG): $30.99
MP: $106.93
CO: $27.35
BTN: $25.00
SB: $71.96

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is UTG with A Heart A Club
Hero raises to $0.90, 4 folds, BB calls $0.65

Flop: ($1.90) 2 Diamond 3 Spade T Diamond (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.30, BB raises to $4.50, Hero calls $3.20

Turn: ($10.90) 2 Heart (2 players)
BB bets $9, Hero calls $9

River: ($28.90) 6 Diamond (2 players)
BB bets $10.60 all in, Hero requests TIME, Hero folds

Posted almost 2 years ago

GoTheBombers

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28 posts
Joined 03/2010

Any stats on his post flop aggression?

Without a post flop read, I probably fold turn to be honest. The flop c/r combined with his leading into you on the turn combined with his tight stats indicate that he is pretty strong here. Maybe he has KK-JJ here that he just flatted preflop but his hand looks stronger than that to me.

As played I don't think you are ever good on the river and a good fold imo.

Posted almost 2 years ago

nolcat

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126 posts
Joined 01/2010

Any stats on his post flop aggression?

Without a post flop read, I probably fold turn to be honest. The flop c/r combined with his leading into you on the turn combined with his tight stats indicate that he is pretty strong here. Maybe he has KK-JJ here that he just flatted preflop but his hand looks stronger than that to me.

As played I don't think you are ever good on the river and a good fold imo.



i m knew to readin stats and HEM etc.. as far as i can see his postflop aggresion says. 2.4 overall. with 2.o, 2.2 and 5.0 for river..does this mean anything to u??

Posted almost 2 years ago

HGE_88

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94 posts
Joined 08/2009

If you call turn, why not ship it allin anyway?

Posted almost 2 years ago

GoTheBombers

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28 posts
Joined 03/2010

i m knew to readin stats and HEM etc.. as far as i can see his postflop aggresion says. 2.4 overall. with 2.o, 2.2 and 5.0 for river..does this mean anything to u??



Ok, so he isn't super aggressive which tells me that his c/r and donk on the turn is likely to be a made hand rather than a bluff so I think it is still probably a fold turn and definately fold river.

Posted almost 2 years ago

beztro

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502 posts
Joined 08/2008

Bad fold.

Presumably you didn't fold the turn because he could have AT, JJ, and bluffs. Can't really fold the river now when you only risk $10 to win $40.

Posted almost 2 years ago

jrw5001

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136 posts
Joined 05/2009

mbradycf

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4 posts
Joined 01/2009

ship turn, if not call river

your odds are to good

Posted almost 2 years ago

Kazama

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96 posts
Joined 02/2010

QuetzalCoatl

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Man-eating Snake God
1453 posts
Joined 09/2008

it'd be nice to see a bit more analysis to go with the actions.

I think calling the turn is clearly worse than jamming because the latter gets all the monies from draws, whereas calling gives them a chance to give up on blank rivers.

The flop is relatively dry - his range is going to be {sets, flush draws, air, and possibly TP hands} and since the flush draws have decent equity versus us, 3 betting the flop relies on him being bluffy or playing TP very fast. Instead, flatting the turn and getting aggro on blank turns means that our equity shifts versus a flush draw, plus I think that TP is less likely to get away, if it's in his range, and some of his air might pick up enough/think we're weak and thereby put more money in the pot.

Posted almost 2 years ago

tubasteve

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7697 posts
Joined 11/2007

one more for shove turn if you wanna continue

Posted almost 2 years ago

nolcat

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126 posts
Joined 01/2010

because his stats were so tight i figured he was the type more likely to ck FD on turn and bet TP hands for protection so for that reason i only flatted with the intention of giving up on the river if he continued. i dunno and maybe someone can offer some enlightenment but i just figure a 14/11 type is pretty much a nit and his barrelling looks super strg. he's gotta think i fold FD's on turn (given paired board) and that my pereceived range has gotta be overpairs and tp hands at least especially when i call the turn. so when he bets the river i figure it can rarely be a bluff and mostly a 3s and Ts full. also i think it's almost never a flush and ok sometimes it's 2s full of tens (and of course the preflop slowplayed jj-kk to give 2's full of same) which he may even ck/call river with. so although i'm getting good odds i felt i they were not good enough. for me it was more like he almost definitely has me beat if he bets this river (more like 90% i was thinking as i did look at the juicy almost 4/1 i was getting).
does anyone think i had reason to think along the lines of flatting the turn given his stats and the way he played the hand?

Posted almost 2 years ago

bigsliks

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17 posts
Joined 03/2010

I'm for 3-bet flop if called shove turn, if R/R on flop this would be read dependent, but with no reads I call, he will have jj,QQ,KK,AT, or F/D and the times he does have a set, OOPS:} we have fold equity to, we just have to much equity against his range and wth him already R/Ring us I think we can get it all in now.

Posted almost 2 years ago

nolcat

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126 posts
Joined 01/2010

I'm for 3-bet flop if called shove turn, if R/R on flop this would be read dependent, but with no reads I call, he will have jj,QQ,KK,AT, or F/D and the times he does have a set, OOPS:} we have fold equity to, we just have to much equity against his range and wth him already R/Ring us I think we can get it all in now.



u say 3bet the flop...well i dont want to be folding out FD's and TP and maybe even jj hands at this point which will be the largest part of his range alot of the time here. (his QQ+ would be 3bet pre mostly). i.e. i want worse hands to remain in and keep the pot small vs better hands..dont u think

Posted almost 2 years ago

bigsliks

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17 posts
Joined 03/2010

I'm just saying with how much intrest he's showing by raising our flop bet, I would think he would get it all in on the flop. but with your call on the flop and him leading on the turn, he has already commited himself (he has put 2/3rd his stack in the pot) with his turn bet, So if at that point you thought you were ahead, I shove turn. By slow playing you put yourself in a tough desicion on the river.

Posted almost 2 years ago




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