ILIKEBEANS
136 posts
Joined 03/2010
Wordup8801
29 posts
Joined 08/2009
I'd make this fold as well, I don't know what exactly he's playing like this except maybe JJ or QQ, but 15/12 is pretty tight and I don't expect this type of player to ever do this without having you crushed.
Posted almost 2 years ago
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Win.by.TKo
12 posts
Joined 08/2009
I guess the question is whether you think the villain was floating here. However, I agree that there are too many hands in his range that beat you at this point. A fold is best, but I am not happy about it.
Posted almost 2 years ago
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ILIKEBEANS
136 posts
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Steve!
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ILIKEBEANS
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icechip
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oneillsurfer03
1397 posts
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Stoegi
320 posts
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zenben
1270 posts
Joined 03/2009
really good fold-I'm impressed with your dicipline. It's an interesting spot, indeed. There are few players who can take this line with 88/TT. I really doubt he is flatting your 3bet with AJ (however it's a little too small-make it $3.00 OOP). At the same time, there are 0 9's in his range, and QJ is very unlikely. That leaves JJ+/AK/AQ. AK would probably have to have a sick read on you to make this play profitably, and I don't expect 15/12's to be exploiting tendencies and making moves post flop. AQ MIGHT be in his range, but I'm not certain how he plays post flop, so he might even fold the flop if he's weak/tight. That makes JJ+ the majority of his range. We are way behind, and have to be good more than 50% of the time to make our call profitable. It's a fold...just be glad you didn't ch/C and cry pot odds on a blank river!
Posted almost 2 years ago
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ILIKEBEANS
136 posts
Joined 03/2010
tubasteve
7697 posts
Joined 11/2007
if he can have KQ/QT folding is really bad
by my calcs you need 28% to call. here's a range that only includes a few combos of hands that we lose to (QTcc, QTss, KQcc, KQss):
Board: 9d 9h Jc Qd
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 24.716% 23.72% 00.99% 167 7.00 { AhQh }
Hand 1: 75.284% 74.29% 00.99% 523 7.00 { KK-JJ, 99, KQs, QTs+ }
any hand that is willing to continue is probably going to shove, so i think giving him just QQ/JJ is way too tight. also we only have 55 hands on the guy so assuming he's a huge nit is probably a mistake. its pretty close but i am calling here. i didn't include a single combo of KQ/QT/AQ offsuit and i did include all 6 combos of KK, so if you start adding those offsuit floats with draws our equity gets a lot better.
edit: i just realized he cold called making this hand a bit trickier and removing some possibility of offsuit hands, but i still think i would get it in. people do weird stuff.
Posted almost 2 years ago
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ILIKEBEANS
136 posts
Joined 03/2010