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Missed value on River?

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MiniMuska

Avatar for MiniMuska

42 posts
Joined 08/2010

Playing this earlier I didnt know if I missed a bet here on the river. Villain was playing a 28/20 game but only over 60 hands. I havent seen him x/r on any street yet but I didnt want to give him a chance to try it because it could complete a few draws.

By the river I put player on KQ, KJ, J10, and maybe even a 97. His play seemed drawy and passive so if he did get there and I dont think I could call a x/r on the river.

Merge - $0.04 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

MP: $2.07
Hero (CO): $4.00
BTN: $3.37
SB: $3.76
BB: $3.73
UTG: $4.57

SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.04

Pre Flop: ($0.06) Hero has KHeart QSpade

fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.14, fold, fold, BB calls $0.10

Flop: ($0.30, 2 players) KSpade 4Diamond 9Heart
BB checks, Hero bets $0.26, BB calls $0.26

Turn: ($0.82, 2 players) 8Diamond
BB checks, Hero bets $0.53, BB calls $0.53

River: ($1.88, 2 players) 7Heart
BB checks, Hero checks


Did I lose value here by not betting or was checking back the best play?

Posted 10 months ago

7GramRocks

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64 posts
Joined 07/2012

since he's OOP and not a spazz, his flop call reps

KQ, KJ, KT, A9, T9, 98, J9s, (Q9s, 79s?)
maybe hands like TT/88 and possibly AQ/AJ - depending on villain.

Turn call might only eliminate air and pairs under a 9 for sure. Again, the rest depends on how cally he is. but id still def give him any Kx. At this limit, most 9x is still in his range.

So on the river, i would go about half pot for value.

Posted 10 months ago

VarianceMonkey

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361 posts
Joined 07/2010

Start by writing out a preflop range that this villain would call with pre, then write out what part of that range he would call flop with, continue for the turn. Then we can start counting combos, and figure out what he can possibly c/c the river with.

Edit: Your river vbet is only +ev if it wins >50% of the time.

Posted 10 months ago

VarianceMonkey

Avatar for VarianceMonkey

361 posts
Joined 07/2010

Pre-flop I give this 28/20 villain a range of 22-TT, any BW except for AK, A2s+, 76s-T9s, K9s, Q9s, J9s. I assume he 3bets JJ+ and AK.

Flop: I think he continues with KT-KQ, QT-QJ, JT, A9s, K9s, Q9s, J9s, T9s,98s, TT, 99, 44.

Turn: I think he continues with KT-KQ, K9s, JT, QJdd, QTdd, 98s, TT, 99, 44, and I think he x/r his sets (99 and 44) by now since board is getting wet.

River: I think he only continues river vs a bet with KT-KQ, K9s, 98s, and JT (which he x/r's)

Vs the river continuing range I give to villain, I don't think you can value bet since it has 54.8% equity vs KQo.

Posted 10 months ago




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