It's time that there was a new post in the Micro Stakes concepts thread. Hopefully, someone will think that this is worth including.
The risk-reward formula
There's a very easy way to calculate how often a move needs to work to break even. The formula is:
% = risk/(risk + reward)
It's pretty simple, right? Let's give it a go. Fancy a button raise to steal the blinds. Let's raise to 3.5bb
Risk = 3.5
Reward = 1.5
% = 3.5/5 = 70%
We need to steal successfully 70% of the time for the move to be profitable. Hmm. No wonder no-one raises to 3.5bb on the button. What about 2.5bb?
Risk = 2.5
Reward = 1.5
% = 2.5/4 = 62.5%
That's a little bit better, right?
We can use the formula on the flop too. Let's say we're considering cbetting with an air-ball on the flop and we don't intend to fire a second barrel:
Risk = 1pot
Reward = 1pot
% = 1/2 = 50%
We need to win 50% of the time.
(Note: postflop, as micro players, we should be thinking about the rake. This is a bigger factor for us than for the players at higher limits, where the rake hit the cap more often. So let's run that again with a 5% rake)
Risk = 1 pot
Reward = 0.95 pot
% raked = 1/1.95 = 51.28%
Let's run it again, and cbet 1/2 pot
Risk = 1/2 pot
Reward = 1 pot
% = 0.5 / 1.5 = 33%
% rakes = 0.5/1.45 = 34.5%
Work out how often a bluff CR on a dry board needs to work. Villain cbets 0.75 pot. You 3x him to 2.25 pot. Work it out with and without rake.