# Micro Stakes Online NL Poker Forums

## Conxept of the Whatever: The Risk-Reward formula

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#### Slowjoe

1116 posts
Joined 01/2010

It's time that there was a new post in the Micro Stakes concepts thread. Hopefully, someone will think that this is worth including.

The risk-reward formula
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There's a very easy way to calculate how often a move needs to work to break even. The formula is:
% = risk/(risk + reward)

It's pretty simple, right? Let's give it a go. Fancy a button raise to steal the blinds. Let's raise to 3.5bb

Risk = 3.5
Reward = 1.5
% = 3.5/5 = 70%
We need to steal successfully 70% of the time for the move to be profitable. Hmm. No wonder no-one raises to 3.5bb on the button. What about 2.5bb?

Risk = 2.5
Reward = 1.5
% = 2.5/4 = 62.5%
That's a little bit better, right?

We can use the formula on the flop too. Let's say we're considering cbetting with an air-ball on the flop and we don't intend to fire a second barrel:
Risk = 1pot
Reward = 1pot
% = 1/2 = 50%
We need to win 50% of the time.
(Note: postflop, as micro players, we should be thinking about the rake. This is a bigger factor for us than for the players at higher limits, where the rake hit the cap more often. So let's run that again with a 5% rake)

Risk = 1 pot
Reward = 0.95 pot
% raked = 1/1.95 = 51.28%

Let's run it again, and cbet 1/2 pot
Risk = 1/2 pot
Reward = 1 pot
% = 0.5 / 1.5 = 33%

% rakes = 0.5/1.45 = 34.5%

Exercise:
Work out how often a bluff CR on a dry board needs to work. Villain cbets 0.75 pot. You 3x him to 2.25 pot. Work it out with and without rake.

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