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Villain: 557 hands, 15/11, Flop cbet: 68%, Turn cbet: 63%, River raise 0/8, WtSD: 31%, W$SD: 67%
My note was: He is pretty tight postflop and honest.

Ongame Network $0.10/$0.20 No Limit Hold'em - 4 players - View hand 1827160
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BTN: $23.46
SB: $19.70
Hero (BB): $20.00
CO: $20.00

Pre Flop: ($0.30) Hero is BB with K A
CO raises to $0.80, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.60

Flop: ($1.70) 3 3 A (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $1.30, Hero calls $1.30

Turn: ($4.30) 5 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks

River: ($4.30) 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $3, CO raises to $9

Hero?

I have AKs, I think 3bet is pointless here against a nit UTG raise. Dreamflop, so I tried to get value from his pairs, AQ, AJ hands. What you think, what is his range at the river? Am I misplayed the hand somewhere?

I think his river raising range is something like 55,88,AA,Ac*c

Most people will call a x/r with w pretty wide range on this flop because you can't have a lot of nutted hands here. Especially if he thinks u raise AK preflop. You could expect villain to call your check raise and at least the turn with a hand like 99.

The river raise is whatever, you're getting a decent price and I would be calling here expecting to lose most of the time. If it turns out he checked back turn with a FD, thats a super valuable piece of information. There's only 1 combo of A8s left, and 2 combos of 88. A call can never be that bad here.

I think calling river here is massively bad fwiw.

I think his river raising range is something like 55,88,AA,Ac*c

Why would he ever check back 55 on the turn? Also, most of the utg open Ax are betting the turn for value IMO.

I'm just curious...Why didn't you bet the turn if you wanted to get value from his pairs, AJ, or AQ?

Given his form with river raises this would have to be a sigh fold IMO. I'd have bet the turn to charge the FD. I also think there's an argument for x/r'ing flop to either get get value from a worse Ace or just take the pot down there. 10bb ain't so bad w/ TP.

Why would he ever check back 55 on the turn? Also, most of the utg open Ax are betting the turn for value IMO.

Whether or not it's good people do this sometimes. I wouldn't give him all combinations of 55, just saying that it's possible. I think this is mostly 88 and it's occasionally a flush and almost never a bluff.

Whether or not it's good people do this sometimes. I wouldn't give him all combinations of 55, just saying that it's possible. I think this is mostly 88 and it's occasionally a flush and almost never a bluff.

I can understand someone checking 55 OTT; they've got a FH only beaten if hero has quad 3s [unlikely] or AA [also unlikely as hero would most likely 3bet pre], so a check to pick up an extra bet on river would be a decent play IMO. Esp if hero was on a FD in which case a dream river just came in.

I'm just curious...Why didn't you bet the turn if you wanted to get value from his pairs, AJ, or AQ?

Yeah, good question. Maybe that's the best line. Call preflop, c/c flop, bet turn. But don't you think he bet the turn with his AQ, AJ (and even with some pp like KK, QQ, JJ)? And what's your opinion about this: If I c/c flop, bet turn and getting a raise? Push all-in or fold?
As played, river is really a fold (but I called to fast )

I think he will bet AQ AK on the turn a lot, QQ,JJ are bet on the turn less often. But I think he doesn't raise those on the river if he checks them back.

This guy is a nit, his utg range is extremely tight. His cbet is low, his 3barrel is even lower, you have a note that he is honest postflop. This just has to be a fold. If there is one spot where players like this don't bluff it's with river raises.

Yeah, good question. Maybe that's the best line. Call preflop, c/c flop, bet turn. But don't you think he bet the turn with his AQ, AJ (and even with some pp like KK, QQ, JJ)? And what's your opinion about this: If I c/c flop, bet turn and getting a raise? Push all-in or fold?
As played, river is really a fold (but I called to fast )

If you bet turn and get raised, consult Baluga Theorem )

River is definitely a fold imo. I also think I like donking OTT. He probably doesn't barrel air very often at all and we can prevent him from pot controlling worse Ax on the turn or river.

I've been trying to think about good spots to ch/c flop and donk turn, so if anyone has anymore thoughts on good spots for this I'd be interested in discussing.

This guy is a nit, his utg range is extremely tight.

We should be looking at his CO range right? Although a nit might often not be much wider regardless...

what do you think about a x/r on the flop? i think pokergarden already suggested it. we cannot really rep a lot on this flop and not sure how often he will barrel air on the turn or lower pairs so we don't miss all that much against that part of his range but can potentially win more against his weaker Ax.
calling flop and donking turn sounds interesting too